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The TGA experience

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Maple Syrup 🍁 | #ELEANORNATION

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1,153,428 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING 🇺🇸 US government's cash balance has almost reached $1T, its highest level in 5 years. The TGA (Treasury General Account) balance is up $300 billion over the past month, reaching almost $1 trillion. TGA is the US government's primary operating account, held at the Fed. When TGA balance rises, it drains liquidity from the system. When TGA balance falls, it pumps liquidity into the system. Right now, TGA balance is increasing at a rapid pace, which means liquidity is being taken out. Here's why this is bad: 1) Liquidity drain When TGA rises, bank reserves fall. This reduces the cash banks have available to lend or hold as buffers. When this gets extreme, it causes SOFR to spike, which creates stress in money markets. 2) Rising bond yields TGA is often funded by increasing T-bill supply. This pushes bond prices lower and yields higher, which is bad for the economy. 3) Downward pressure on assets When TGA rises quickly, SOFR spikes and bond yields surge. Both of them are bad for risk-on assets, especially crypto. In October 2025, the TGA balance almost reached $1T, and we all saw what happened to the crypto market after that. What could happen next? When liquidity gets drained, the crypto market feels it the earliest. Also, May has started, which has historically been bearish for the crypto market during mid-term election years. This doesn't mean BTC will drop immediately, but from here, the max pain is to the downside.
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