The Type 212CD is straight-up highway robbery, yet it remains the most advanced conventional submarine in existence today. The problem is: it simply cannot cost THIS much. This entire industry has completely forgotten the lessons of World War II. German tanks were technically superior in almost every way, yet... they were buried under an avalanche of Soviet T-34s and American Shermans tanks that cost less than half as much and were churned out at triple the production rate. That war proved, once and for all, that in a prolonged attrition conflict, quantity and low unit cost are what win, not exquisite engineering alone. A weapon has to be excellent, yes, but above all it has to be cheap enough to be produced in massive numbers and replaced the day after it’s lost. Beyond the battery revolution that is already underway, we are on the cusp of a second, even more brutal underwater revolution: swarms of fully autonomous AI-armed UUVs whose sole mission is to hunt, track and kill submarines. Dozens, hundreds of these drones will saturate the operating area, surfacing briefly to receive updated orders and transmit targeting data, then diving again to relentlessly stalk their prey. What FPV drones are currently doing to multi-million-dollar tanks on land will be replicated under the sea by cheap, expendable, fully autonomous killers operating in the dark depths. When we invest billions in a platform, we have to war-game its obsolescence curve through the eyes of our adversaries over the next 10–15 years, not just admire the brochure. The German defence industry is addicted to gold-plating. The products are magnificent, no question. But the costs are so obscene they annihilate every single advantage they claim to offer.show more

Patricia Marins

402,259 subscribers

Share Download