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The U.S. Office of Personnel Management just announced a new program: US Tech Force Scott Kupor breaks down the details: > two-year program > hiring 1,000 engineers, product managers, data scientists, AI specialists > targeting people early in their career > in partnership with tech companies like Coinbase, Robinhood,... show more

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118,362 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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WATCH: U.S. Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor on Ruthless Podcast with Comfortably Smug John Ashbrook: “The government is lacking software expertise, and we have an early career problem. Tech Force's goal is to bring 1,000 early career engineers in government."

WATCH: U.S. Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor on Ruthless Podcast with Comfortably Smug John Ashbrook: “The government is lacking software expertise, and we have an early career problem. Tech Force's goal is to bring 1,000 early career engineers in government."

US Tech Force

11,835 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Could civil service become the next great career accelerator? Scott Kupor (Scott Kupor), director of OPM (and ex a16z partner), thinks so. “Take all the smartest people, have them come here for two years… Let’s forgive some student debt as part of that.” “We’re going to get a private-sector employer to guarantee you a job when you finish your two years here and give you full credit for the time.” His blueprint borrows from the Civilian Conservation Corps playbook and raises the bar: 1) Create a two-year tour of duty for young talent 2) Pair public-service impact with substantial financial upside 3) Build career pathways that flow back into tech “Make government cool again: MGCA.”

Could civil service become the next great career accelerator? Scott Kupor (Scott Kupor), director of OPM (and ex a16z partner), thinks so. “Take all the smartest people, have them come here for two years… Let’s forgive some student debt as part of that.” “We’re going to get a private-sector employer to guarantee you a job when you finish your two years here and give you full credit for the time.” His blueprint borrows from the Civilian Conservation Corps playbook and raises the bar: 1) Create a two-year tour of duty for young talent 2) Pair public-service impact with substantial financial upside 3) Build career pathways that flow back into tech “Make government cool again: MGCA.”

TBPN

89,533 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The fellas are done with the AI doom spiral. There’s a real push to demoralize Americans, convince them innovation is dangerous and hand the future to foreign competitors. That’s the play - so we’re flipping it. Introducing American Innovators—a 10-part series breaking down how the U.S. actually wins the AI race with Comfortably Smug. First up: Scott Kupor, Director of the Office of Personnel Management, on hiring, the tech workforce and where AI is actually taking us. AI isn’t the end: it’s leverage. Partnered with Build American AI, this series brings in the people building the future.

The fellas are done with the AI doom spiral. There’s a real push to demoralize Americans, convince them innovation is dangerous and hand the future to foreign competitors. That’s the play - so we’re flipping it. Introducing American Innovators—a 10-part series breaking down how the U.S. actually wins the AI race with Comfortably Smug. First up: Scott Kupor, Director of the Office of Personnel Management, on hiring, the tech workforce and where AI is actually taking us. AI isn’t the end: it’s leverage. Partnered with Build American AI, this series brings in the people building the future.

Ruthless Podcast

160,854 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Could civil service become the next great career accelerator? Scott Kupor ( Scott Kupor), director of OPM (and ex a16z partner), thinks so. “Take all the smartest people, have them come here for two years… Let’s forgive some student debt as part of that.” “We’re going to get a private-sector employer to guarantee you a job when you finish your two years here and give you full credit for the time.” His blueprint borrows from the Civilian Conservation Corps playbook and raises the bar: 1) Create a two-year tour of duty for young talent 2) Pair public-service impact with substantial financial upside 3) Build career pathways that flow back into tech “Make government cool again: MGCA.” From his appearance on the show in August.

Could civil service become the next great career accelerator? Scott Kupor ( Scott Kupor), director of OPM (and ex a16z partner), thinks so. “Take all the smartest people, have them come here for two years… Let’s forgive some student debt as part of that.” “We’re going to get a private-sector employer to guarantee you a job when you finish your two years here and give you full credit for the time.” His blueprint borrows from the Civilian Conservation Corps playbook and raises the bar: 1) Create a two-year tour of duty for young talent 2) Pair public-service impact with substantial financial upside 3) Build career pathways that flow back into tech “Make government cool again: MGCA.” From his appearance on the show in August.

TBPN

64,453 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Jared Isaacman announces NASA Force 🚀 • A new initiative between NASA and the Office of Personnel Management • Recruits top aerospace, software, and systems engineers from the private sector • Approximately 2-year, term-based appointments • Designed to rebuild NASA’s core competencies and close critical skill gaps • Part of the broader US Tech Force initiative Another step forward to putting Americans back on the Moon 🌕 (via NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman)

Jared Isaacman announces NASA Force 🚀 • A new initiative between NASA and the Office of Personnel Management • Recruits top aerospace, software, and systems engineers from the private sector • Approximately 2-year, term-based appointments • Designed to rebuild NASA’s core competencies and close critical skill gaps • Part of the broader US Tech Force initiative Another step forward to putting Americans back on the Moon 🌕 (via NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman)

Latest in space

194,677 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Sat down with Scott Kupor, Director of OPM and former a16z managing partner, about why he left a comfy VC job to work in Gov and what he's building with US Tech Force. (00:00) His wife's reaction to leaving a16z (04:00) How this Trump admin is different for tech (09:00) What is OPM and the federal talent gap (16:00) Where DOGE stands now (18:00) $250B on employees vs $750B on contractors (22:00) The 1981 hiring law nobody touched for 44 years (28:00) What is US Tech Force (36:00) AI in government today (44:30) His pitch on why engineers should work for government

Sat down with Scott Kupor, Director of OPM and former a16z managing partner, about why he left a comfy VC job to work in Gov and what he's building with US Tech Force. (00:00) His wife's reaction to leaving a16z (04:00) How this Trump admin is different for tech (09:00) What is OPM and the federal talent gap (16:00) Where DOGE stands now (18:00) $250B on employees vs $750B on contractors (22:00) The 1981 hiring law nobody touched for 44 years (28:00) What is US Tech Force (36:00) AI in government today (44:30) His pitch on why engineers should work for government

Nathan Lands

41,285 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

After an Italian regulatory body handed down a $17M fine to his company, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince refuses to back down: "I spent the beginning of this week in DC meeting with a number of officials... I don't think the Italians quite understand the hornet's nest they've stirred up." "The crazy stat is that Europe makes more from fining US tech companies than they do from taxing their own technology companies." "Something has to change... this is now the cause célèbre for Europe using US tech companies as their piggy bank." "We can't have Europeans, let alone this Italian cabal, being able to dictate what is and is not online."

After an Italian regulatory body handed down a $17M fine to his company, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince refuses to back down: "I spent the beginning of this week in DC meeting with a number of officials... I don't think the Italians quite understand the hornet's nest they've stirred up." "The crazy stat is that Europe makes more from fining US tech companies than they do from taxing their own technology companies." "Something has to change... this is now the cause célèbre for Europe using US tech companies as their piggy bank." "We can't have Europeans, let alone this Italian cabal, being able to dictate what is and is not online."

TBPN

116,607 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

M13 Co-Founder Carter Reum says this tech cycle is different than others because startups aren't just competing with other startups, they're competing with some of the most well-funded companies in history. "The last cycle around consumer software and social networks was innovators competing with innovators. Mark Zuckerberg competing with Evan Spiegel, John Zimmer competing with Travis Kalanick." "I would argue in this cycle, it's innovators competing with the most well funded innovators on the planet." "For the first time in history, [the biggest tech companies in the world] actually have the advantage. They got the tech, talent, data, capital and the technical expertise."

M13 Co-Founder Carter Reum says this tech cycle is different than others because startups aren't just competing with other startups, they're competing with some of the most well-funded companies in history. "The last cycle around consumer software and social networks was innovators competing with innovators. Mark Zuckerberg competing with Evan Spiegel, John Zimmer competing with Travis Kalanick." "I would argue in this cycle, it's innovators competing with the most well funded innovators on the planet." "For the first time in history, [the biggest tech companies in the world] actually have the advantage. They got the tech, talent, data, capital and the technical expertise."

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41,434 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

$🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 MICROSOFT & OPENAI SUSPECT DEEPSEEK OF “BORROWING” THEIR TECH Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, helped itself to OpenAI’s data using its API. Microsoft’s security team flagged suspicious large-scale data extraction in late 2023, suggesting DeepSeek may have sneakily bypassed restrictions to grab more than it paid for. Not-so-coincidentally, DeepSeek just dropped “R1,” an AI model that supposedly rivals OpenAI, Google, and Meta—at a fraction of the cost. The news sent tech stocks into meltdown mode, erasing nearly $1 trillion from companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Google. Investors weren’t thrilled about a potential AI leapfrogging moment. Trump’s AI czar David Sacks: "There’s substantial evidence that what DeepSeek did here is they distilled knowledge out of OpenAI models and I don’t think OpenAI is very happy about this.” OpenAI isn’t naming names but warns China is constantly trying to siphon off US AI tech and says it’s working with the US government to lock things down. Source: Bloomberg Media Source: Reuters$

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 MICROSOFT & OPENAI SUSPECT DEEPSEEK OF “BORROWING” THEIR TECH Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, helped itself to OpenAI’s data using its API. Microsoft’s security team flagged suspicious large-scale data extraction in late 2023, suggesting DeepSeek may have sneakily bypassed restrictions to grab more than it paid for. Not-so-coincidentally, DeepSeek just dropped “R1,” an AI model that supposedly rivals OpenAI, Google, and Meta—at a fraction of the cost. The news sent tech stocks into meltdown mode, erasing nearly $1 trillion from companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Google. Investors weren’t thrilled about a potential AI leapfrogging moment. Trump’s AI czar David Sacks: "There’s substantial evidence that what DeepSeek did here is they distilled knowledge out of OpenAI models and I don’t think OpenAI is very happy about this.” OpenAI isn’t naming names but warns China is constantly trying to siphon off US AI tech and says it’s working with the US government to lock things down. Source: Bloomberg Media Source: Reuters

Mario Nawfal

822,553 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

OPENAI LOST $20,000,000,000 LAST YEAR AND IT ALL CRASHES IN 2027. Tech critic Ed Zitron just broke down exactly how the AI industry will run out of cash and cause a massive tech collapse in three years. He calls the whole AI boom a giant trick. Big tech companies are giving billions of dollars to AI startups, but only so those startups can turn around and buy computer chips right back from them. On top of that, AI companies are secretly spending up to $14,000 behind the scenes for every $200 a user pays them, just to make it look like AI is insanely popular. Zitron predicts that by 2027, the money will completely dry up. When these AI companies finally fail, they will pull the rest of the tech industry down with them and wipe out everyday retirement accounts. Watch this 👇

OPENAI LOST $20,000,000,000 LAST YEAR AND IT ALL CRASHES IN 2027. Tech critic Ed Zitron just broke down exactly how the AI industry will run out of cash and cause a massive tech collapse in three years. He calls the whole AI boom a giant trick. Big tech companies are giving billions of dollars to AI startups, but only so those startups can turn around and buy computer chips right back from them. On top of that, AI companies are secretly spending up to $14,000 behind the scenes for every $200 a user pays them, just to make it look like AI is insanely popular. Zitron predicts that by 2027, the money will completely dry up. When these AI companies finally fail, they will pull the rest of the tech industry down with them and wipe out everyday retirement accounts. Watch this 👇

Katyayani Shukla

13,092 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Chai Discovery cofounder Jack Dent says AI drug discovery hit a major inflection point in 2025. As a result, it's now being deployed at the biggest pharma companies as part of their core discovery engines. "Over the course of 2025, these models went from being research curiosities... to being able to design molecules without needing to fine-tune them on a lot of data." "You can really just prompt them in the way that you'd prompt an LLM with a target, maybe some disease you're going after. And they will design a number of candidates that would help do that, essentially." "A year, year and a half ago, basically none of this stuff worked." "In 2025 we really crossed the Rubicon. And now these technologies are actively being deployed in companies like Eli Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer. These are some of the most scientific, highest-tech companies in the world. And they're putting them into real drug programs and making them part of their core discovery engines."

Chai Discovery cofounder Jack Dent says AI drug discovery hit a major inflection point in 2025. As a result, it's now being deployed at the biggest pharma companies as part of their core discovery engines. "Over the course of 2025, these models went from being research curiosities... to being able to design molecules without needing to fine-tune them on a lot of data." "You can really just prompt them in the way that you'd prompt an LLM with a target, maybe some disease you're going after. And they will design a number of candidates that would help do that, essentially." "A year, year and a half ago, basically none of this stuff worked." "In 2025 we really crossed the Rubicon. And now these technologies are actively being deployed in companies like Eli Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer. These are some of the most scientific, highest-tech companies in the world. And they're putting them into real drug programs and making them part of their core discovery engines."

TBPN

29,486 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman says hiring John Giannandrea to lead Apple's AI team has been the biggest mistake of Tim Cook's career at Apple: "In 2018, they hired John Giannandrea. He was this high flyer at Google. He ran AI in search, and Apple thought they would hire this guy and really hit the ground running and be at the forefront of AI." "Just seven years earlier, they announced Siri in 2011. There was absolutely nothing like it. It was a breakthrough. But then it became utter junk." "You haven't even scratched the surface of how big a problem this is for Apple. They've completely screwed up AI in every way, and it comes down to hiring the wrong people and entrusting the wrong people."

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman says hiring John Giannandrea to lead Apple's AI team has been the biggest mistake of Tim Cook's career at Apple: "In 2018, they hired John Giannandrea. He was this high flyer at Google. He ran AI in search, and Apple thought they would hire this guy and really hit the ground running and be at the forefront of AI." "Just seven years earlier, they announced Siri in 2011. There was absolutely nothing like it. It was a breakthrough. But then it became utter junk." "You haven't even scratched the surface of how big a problem this is for Apple. They've completely screwed up AI in every way, and it comes down to hiring the wrong people and entrusting the wrong people."

TBPN

58,967 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Breaking Points' Saagar Enjeti says AI companies are "fighting against a very, very big force" in the US. "There's this rising populist tide against the data center movement. And against Abundance-style assurances from politicians and companies." "Something is happening. The tide has not only turned, but coming." "People just feel like this is out of their control. About AI especially. They're like, 'I want impact. I want a say.'" "There's an overwhelming animus, and people are angry. It's about a lack of control. 'You're coming to take my job, you're increasing my electricity prices, you're changing my nation. And I have to have a say as a citizen.'" "It's no longer just about electricity, it's about the whole picture."

Breaking Points' Saagar Enjeti says AI companies are "fighting against a very, very big force" in the US. "There's this rising populist tide against the data center movement. And against Abundance-style assurances from politicians and companies." "Something is happening. The tide has not only turned, but coming." "People just feel like this is out of their control. About AI especially. They're like, 'I want impact. I want a say.'" "There's an overwhelming animus, and people are angry. It's about a lack of control. 'You're coming to take my job, you're increasing my electricity prices, you're changing my nation. And I have to have a say as a citizen.'" "It's no longer just about electricity, it's about the whole picture."

TBPN

221,308 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

"A generation of management teaching taught us CEOs should trust their people and get out of the way. But I don't think 'trust' and 'getting out of the way' are the same thing." Brian Chesky on how Founder Mode will become even more important with agentic AI: "Great leadership is presence, not absence." "Leadership is presence. You should actually be partnering with people. You should be on the field with them. If you're a calvalry general, you should be on a horse. You should be on the battlefield. You're not overseas just writing blueprints. You gotta be on the field with them, you gotta be leading by example." "Leadership is from the front, not the back." "I think AI is going to create the equivalent of an AI founder mode. Now you gotta be even more hands-on. I don't think in the era of AI, there should be any pure people managers. Because you're so close to the details and data. Everyone has the opportunity to be hands-on, and it's hard to imagine only managing people and not agents."

"A generation of management teaching taught us CEOs should trust their people and get out of the way. But I don't think 'trust' and 'getting out of the way' are the same thing." Brian Chesky on how Founder Mode will become even more important with agentic AI: "Great leadership is presence, not absence." "Leadership is presence. You should actually be partnering with people. You should be on the field with them. If you're a calvalry general, you should be on a horse. You should be on the battlefield. You're not overseas just writing blueprints. You gotta be on the field with them, you gotta be leading by example." "Leadership is from the front, not the back." "I think AI is going to create the equivalent of an AI founder mode. Now you gotta be even more hands-on. I don't think in the era of AI, there should be any pure people managers. Because you're so close to the details and data. Everyone has the opportunity to be hands-on, and it's hard to imagine only managing people and not agents."

TBPN

16,102 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Billion-Dollar Data Centers Are Taking Over the World | Lauren Goode, WIRED When Sam Altman said one year ago that OpenAI’s Roman Empire is the actual Roman Empire, he wasn’t kidding. In the same way that the Romans gradually amassed an empire of land spanning three continents and one-ninth of the Earth’s circumference, the CEO and his cohort are now dotting the planet with their own latifundia—not agricultural estates, but AI data centers. Tech executives like Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison are fully bought in to the idea that the future of the American (and possibly global) economy are these new warehouses stocked with IT infrastructure. But data centers, of course, aren’t actually new. In the earliest days of computing there were giant power-sucking mainframes in climate-controlled rooms, with co-ax cables moving information from the mainframe to a terminal computer. Then the consumer internet boom of the late 1990s spawned a new era of infrastructure. Massive buildings began popping up in the backyard of Washington, DC, with racks and racks of computers that stored and processed data for tech companies. A decade later, “the cloud” became the squishy infrastructure of the internet. Storage got cheaper. Some companies, like Amazon, capitalized on this. Giant data centers continued to proliferate, but instead of a tech company using some combination of on-premise servers and rented data center racks, they offloaded their computing needs to a bunch of virtualized environments. (“What is the cloud?” a perfectly intelligent family member asked me in the mid-2010s, “and why am I paying for 17 different subscriptions to it?”) All the while tech companies were hoovering up petabytes of data, data that people willingly shared online, in enterprise workspaces, and through mobile apps. Firms began finding new ways to mine and structure this “Big Data,” and promised that it would change lives. In many ways, it did. You had to know where this was going. Now the tech industry is in the fever-dream days of generative AI, which requires new levels of computing resources. Big Data is tired; big data centers are here, and wired—for AI. Faster, more efficient chips are needed to power AI data centers, and chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD have been jumping up and down on the proverbial couch, proclaiming their love for AI. The industry has entered an unprecedented era of capital investments in AI infrastructure, tilting the US into positive GDP territory. These are massive, swirling deals that might as well be cocktail party handshakes, greased with gigawatts and exuberance, while the rest of us try to track real contracts and dollars. OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank have struck some of the biggest deals. This year an earlier supercomputing project between OpenAI and Microsoft, called Stargate, became the vehicle for a massive AI infrastructure project in the US. (President Donald Trump called it the largest AI infrastructure project in history, because of course he did, but that may not have been hyperbolic.) Altman, Ellison, and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son were all in on the deal, pledging $100 billion to start, with plans to invest up to $500 billion into Stargate in the coming years. Nvidia GPUs would be deployed. Later, in July, OpenAI and Oracle announced an additional Stargate partnership—SoftBank curiously absent—measured in gigawatts of capacity (4.5) and expected job creation (around 100,000). Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have also shared plans for multibillion-dollar data projects. Microsoft said at the start of 2025 that it was on track to invest “approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled data centers to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based applications around the world.” Then, in September, Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, provided that OpenAI made good on a deal to use up to 10 gigawatts of Nvidia’s systems for OpenAI’s infrastructure plans, which means essentially that OpenAI has to pay Nvidia in order to get paid by Nvidia. The following month AMD said it would give OpenAI as much as 10 percent of the chip company if OpenAI purchased and deployed up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs between now and 2030. It’s the circular nature of these investments that have the general public, and bearish analysts, wondering if we’re headed for an AI bubble burst. What’s clear is that the near-term downstream effects of these data center build-outs are real. The energy, resource, and labor demands of AI infrastructure are enormous. By some estimates, worldwide AI energy demand is set to surpass demand from bitcoin mining by the end of this year, WIRED has reported. The processors in data centers run hot and need to be cooled, so big tech companies are pulling from municipal water supplies to make that happen—and aren’t always disclosing how much water they’re using. Local wells are running dry or seem unsafe to drink from. Residents who live near data center construction sites are noting that traffic delays, and in some cases car crashes, are increasing. One corner of Richland Parish, Louisiana, home of Meta’s $27 billion Hyperion data center, has seen a 600 percent spike in vehicle crashes this year. Major proponents of AI seem to suggest that all of this will be worth it. Few top tech executives will publicly entertain the notion that this might be an overshoot, either ecologically or economically. “Emphatically … no,” Lisa Su, the chief executive of AMD, said earlier this month when asked if the AI froth has runneth over. Su, like other execs, cited overwhelming demand for AI as justification for these enormous capital expenditures. Demand from whom? Harder to pin down. In their mind, it’s everyone. All of us. The 800 million people who use ChatGPT on a weekly basis. The evolution from those 1990s data centers to the 2000s era of cloud computing to new AI data centers wasn’t just one continuum. The world has concurrently moved from the tiny internet to the big internet to the AI internet, and realistically speaking, there’s no going back. Generative AI is out of the bottle. The Sams and Jensens and Larrys and Lisas of the world aren’t wrong about this. It doesn’t mean they aren’t wrong about the math, though. About their economic predictions. Or their ideas about AI-powered productivity and the labor market. Or the availability of natural and material resources for these data centers. Or who will come once they build them. Or the timing of it all. Even Rome eventually collapsed.

Billion-Dollar Data Centers Are Taking Over the World | Lauren Goode, WIRED When Sam Altman said one year ago that OpenAI’s Roman Empire is the actual Roman Empire, he wasn’t kidding. In the same way that the Romans gradually amassed an empire of land spanning three continents and one-ninth of the Earth’s circumference, the CEO and his cohort are now dotting the planet with their own latifundia—not agricultural estates, but AI data centers. Tech executives like Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison are fully bought in to the idea that the future of the American (and possibly global) economy are these new warehouses stocked with IT infrastructure. But data centers, of course, aren’t actually new. In the earliest days of computing there were giant power-sucking mainframes in climate-controlled rooms, with co-ax cables moving information from the mainframe to a terminal computer. Then the consumer internet boom of the late 1990s spawned a new era of infrastructure. Massive buildings began popping up in the backyard of Washington, DC, with racks and racks of computers that stored and processed data for tech companies. A decade later, “the cloud” became the squishy infrastructure of the internet. Storage got cheaper. Some companies, like Amazon, capitalized on this. Giant data centers continued to proliferate, but instead of a tech company using some combination of on-premise servers and rented data center racks, they offloaded their computing needs to a bunch of virtualized environments. (“What is the cloud?” a perfectly intelligent family member asked me in the mid-2010s, “and why am I paying for 17 different subscriptions to it?”) All the while tech companies were hoovering up petabytes of data, data that people willingly shared online, in enterprise workspaces, and through mobile apps. Firms began finding new ways to mine and structure this “Big Data,” and promised that it would change lives. In many ways, it did. You had to know where this was going. Now the tech industry is in the fever-dream days of generative AI, which requires new levels of computing resources. Big Data is tired; big data centers are here, and wired—for AI. Faster, more efficient chips are needed to power AI data centers, and chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD have been jumping up and down on the proverbial couch, proclaiming their love for AI. The industry has entered an unprecedented era of capital investments in AI infrastructure, tilting the US into positive GDP territory. These are massive, swirling deals that might as well be cocktail party handshakes, greased with gigawatts and exuberance, while the rest of us try to track real contracts and dollars. OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank have struck some of the biggest deals. This year an earlier supercomputing project between OpenAI and Microsoft, called Stargate, became the vehicle for a massive AI infrastructure project in the US. (President Donald Trump called it the largest AI infrastructure project in history, because of course he did, but that may not have been hyperbolic.) Altman, Ellison, and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son were all in on the deal, pledging $100 billion to start, with plans to invest up to $500 billion into Stargate in the coming years. Nvidia GPUs would be deployed. Later, in July, OpenAI and Oracle announced an additional Stargate partnership—SoftBank curiously absent—measured in gigawatts of capacity (4.5) and expected job creation (around 100,000). Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have also shared plans for multibillion-dollar data projects. Microsoft said at the start of 2025 that it was on track to invest “approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled data centers to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based applications around the world.” Then, in September, Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, provided that OpenAI made good on a deal to use up to 10 gigawatts of Nvidia’s systems for OpenAI’s infrastructure plans, which means essentially that OpenAI has to pay Nvidia in order to get paid by Nvidia. The following month AMD said it would give OpenAI as much as 10 percent of the chip company if OpenAI purchased and deployed up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs between now and 2030. It’s the circular nature of these investments that have the general public, and bearish analysts, wondering if we’re headed for an AI bubble burst. What’s clear is that the near-term downstream effects of these data center build-outs are real. The energy, resource, and labor demands of AI infrastructure are enormous. By some estimates, worldwide AI energy demand is set to surpass demand from bitcoin mining by the end of this year, WIRED has reported. The processors in data centers run hot and need to be cooled, so big tech companies are pulling from municipal water supplies to make that happen—and aren’t always disclosing how much water they’re using. Local wells are running dry or seem unsafe to drink from. Residents who live near data center construction sites are noting that traffic delays, and in some cases car crashes, are increasing. One corner of Richland Parish, Louisiana, home of Meta’s $27 billion Hyperion data center, has seen a 600 percent spike in vehicle crashes this year. Major proponents of AI seem to suggest that all of this will be worth it. Few top tech executives will publicly entertain the notion that this might be an overshoot, either ecologically or economically. “Emphatically … no,” Lisa Su, the chief executive of AMD, said earlier this month when asked if the AI froth has runneth over. Su, like other execs, cited overwhelming demand for AI as justification for these enormous capital expenditures. Demand from whom? Harder to pin down. In their mind, it’s everyone. All of us. The 800 million people who use ChatGPT on a weekly basis. The evolution from those 1990s data centers to the 2000s era of cloud computing to new AI data centers wasn’t just one continuum. The world has concurrently moved from the tiny internet to the big internet to the AI internet, and realistically speaking, there’s no going back. Generative AI is out of the bottle. The Sams and Jensens and Larrys and Lisas of the world aren’t wrong about this. It doesn’t mean they aren’t wrong about the math, though. About their economic predictions. Or their ideas about AI-powered productivity and the labor market. Or the availability of natural and material resources for these data centers. Or who will come once they build them. Or the timing of it all. Even Rome eventually collapsed.

Owen Gregorian

55,427 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

President of Blackstone Jon Gray says LLM spend among the company's portcos is up 15-fold in Q1 of this year over last year. At the same time, the pace of implementation is frustratingly slow, so it still feels like we're in the very early days of the AI cycle: "It's sort of the beaker-to-bedside problem in clinical trials — 'We've got this great medicine. How do we get it to the patient?'" "That is the challenge. But we are definitely finding more and more use cases." "At our companies, their LLM spend — by the way, we have 270 companies, 13,000 pieces of real estate, it's massive in its scale — was up 15-fold in Q1 of this year over last. It's off a small base, but it tells you what's happening. And all of these companies are trying to find ways to be more efficient." "To us, on the compute side, it still feels like it's very early days in the implementation. But we can see, particularly in rules-based businesses — transaction processing, legal, etc. — this feels like the path of travel in a big way." "But I think it's taking more time than most of us would hope."

President of Blackstone Jon Gray says LLM spend among the company's portcos is up 15-fold in Q1 of this year over last year. At the same time, the pace of implementation is frustratingly slow, so it still feels like we're in the very early days of the AI cycle: "It's sort of the beaker-to-bedside problem in clinical trials — 'We've got this great medicine. How do we get it to the patient?'" "That is the challenge. But we are definitely finding more and more use cases." "At our companies, their LLM spend — by the way, we have 270 companies, 13,000 pieces of real estate, it's massive in its scale — was up 15-fold in Q1 of this year over last. It's off a small base, but it tells you what's happening. And all of these companies are trying to find ways to be more efficient." "To us, on the compute side, it still feels like it's very early days in the implementation. But we can see, particularly in rules-based businesses — transaction processing, legal, etc. — this feels like the path of travel in a big way." "But I think it's taking more time than most of us would hope."

TBPN

86,952 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce