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There will be no let up on taking out Hezbollah infrastructure. People need to remember that none of this was necessary. ALL of this latest round of fighting started when Israel warned Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to NOT fire rockets and missiles at Israel at the behest of...

15,568 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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This morning, Israel withdrew from its first Lebanese village since the invasion in March, and the Lebanese Armed Forces have moved in to fill the void. The question is: Does this signal the beginning of a forced Israeli retreat, or the start of Lebanon’s long road to recovery? The answer is complicated. Israel can continue destroying Hezbollah infrastructure indefinitely, but it will pay massive international costs for doing so, with no way, short of a full invasion, to extinguish the group entirely. The framework agreement gives Israel legitimacy and time to uproot Hezbollah, but what Lebanon gives, it can also take away. If Beirut loses momentum and descends into state collapse, the entire agreement evaporates, and Hezbollah recovers out of Israel’s reach. This is the project President Joseph Aoun carries to Washington, where he meets Trump for the first time. Trump had no direct communication with Aoun during his first year in office—no meetings, calls, or letters. His sole contact has been in the form of inconsistent messaging on Lebanon’s fate: declaring after the June 26 agreement that “Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” then pivoting to pressure Netanyahu for unconditional withdrawal in the spirit of the Iran MOU, telling him, “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy,” before abandoning both positions altogether in favor of his own scheme, declaring, “Syria will do the job.” Aoun has already proven his willingness to buck Iran and pursue eventual peace with Israel. That was enough to earn this meeting. But anyone with a functioning memory knows the track record is bleak. Lebanon’s LAF claimed to have cleared Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani in late 2025, yet Israel continues finding significant assets there a year since their declaration. More damning still, LAF commander Rodolphe Haykal has explicitly prioritized “civil peace” over confronting Hezbollah—a strange priority for a general with orders to the contrary. The Lebanese military has proven as effective at disarming Hezbollah as UN peacekeepers have been, which is to say, not at all. Lebanese leaders have repeatedly promised and failed to disarm the group over the past 35 years—from the Taif Accord through the 2024 ceasefire. The uncomfortable truth is that throughout Lebanon’s history, only foreign powers—the United States, France, Israel, and Syria—have successfully disarmed Lebanese militias. Before Aoun goes all in on Hezbollah disarmament, he needs ironclad U.S. commitments. That means Delta Force-style training units for elite LAF operations, drones and sensors for border security, organized international fundraising for reconstruction, and business initiatives to rebuild Lebanon’s shattered economy. He also needs assurance that Trump will not abandon him halfway through his push. Trump, for his part, will demand specifics: a detailed plan for Hezbollah disarmament, removal of military officers complicit with the group, suspension of anti-normalization laws blocking Israeli-Lebanese civilian contact, and a clear reaffirmation that peace with Israel is Aoun’s strategic objective. Most critically, Aoun must decisively kill Trump’s recurring fantasy of deploying Syrian troops into Lebanon—a move that would resurrect memories of Assad-era brutality and paradoxically strengthen Hezbollah’s popular support. The circumstances favor success. The U.S.-Iran MOU is in tatters, eliminating easy alternatives to the framework. This week’s Rome talks were productive. Pilot zones are advancing. Trump will likely warm to Aoun personally, provided he takes a note from Zelensky and wears a suit. But this is about far more than personal rapport; the future of Lebanon hangs in the balance.

Amit Segal

23,298 次观看 • 1 个月前