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"There's so much value to be created at the application layer." - Logan Kilpatrick "I think about these three curves: the cost of AI is going down 99%. The intelligence of AI is up to the right." "Consumer understanding of AI and their willingness to pay is going up,"... show more

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Meta AI researchers are fretting over the threat of Chinese AI, whose quality caught American firms, including OpenAI, by surprise.

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Google's Logan Kilpatrick thinks Gemini 3 Flash vindicates the wrapper business model. "As a product builder, I don't think there's been a time in the history of building startups where you just get to show up one morning and somebody made your product 40% better, and saved you 50%." "We ran a behind-the-scenes test with 3 Flash. Because of how much faster it was, retention went up, the number of things people were building went up, and engagement went up."

Google's Logan Kilpatrick thinks Gemini 3 Flash vindicates the wrapper business model. "As a product builder, I don't think there's been a time in the history of building startups where you just get to show up one morning and somebody made your product 40% better, and saved you 50%." "We ran a behind-the-scenes test with 3 Flash. Because of how much faster it was, retention went up, the number of things people were building went up, and engagement went up."

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Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."

Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."

Sawyer Merritt

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"Enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise." Brian Chesky says we're going to see a massive revolution from enterprise to consumer AI in the next two years: "I saw a tweet recently that like 60 new neolabs are being formed. I've met a number of these researchers. A lot of them are interested in doing the same things." "Everyone's saying that consumer's hard. But you know what's also hard? Competing with 10 other companies in enterprise doing your idea too. That's also hard." "We're about to enter this new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible. I think you're going to even be able to see real-time AI-generated interfaces in the next year or two." "My prediction is, this has been the era of enterprise. Even [with] ChatGPT's breakout success, I would predict that most of their revenue is going to be going to Codex. And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer." "We're going to try to do our part. I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail. But I think someone has to. In another era, it would have been Apple. The Steve Jobs-era Apple would have done that."

"Enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise." Brian Chesky says we're going to see a massive revolution from enterprise to consumer AI in the next two years: "I saw a tweet recently that like 60 new neolabs are being formed. I've met a number of these researchers. A lot of them are interested in doing the same things." "Everyone's saying that consumer's hard. But you know what's also hard? Competing with 10 other companies in enterprise doing your idea too. That's also hard." "We're about to enter this new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible. I think you're going to even be able to see real-time AI-generated interfaces in the next year or two." "My prediction is, this has been the era of enterprise. Even [with] ChatGPT's breakout success, I would predict that most of their revenue is going to be going to Codex. And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer." "We're going to try to do our part. I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail. But I think someone has to. In another era, it would have been Apple. The Steve Jobs-era Apple would have done that."

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Doug Sosnik: "One of the things I’ve been shocked at about AI is how much the politics have changed in the last six months. It’s almost like a freight train...This is going to be an exploding issue...Trump wants no impediments. So I think it’s going to be an enormous issue."

Doug Sosnik: "One of the things I’ve been shocked at about AI is how much the politics have changed in the last six months. It’s almost like a freight train...This is going to be an exploding issue...Trump wants no impediments. So I think it’s going to be an enormous issue."

Bill Kristol

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Jeff Bezos reveals why he thinks AI will cause a labor shortage, not mass unemployment "There's so many people who are afraid AI is going to take their job. I think there's going to be a labor shortage as a result" "All these smart people keep saying there's going to be no more radiologists because AI can read X-rays better, no more software engineers because AI can program better. These people are wrong" "What's really going to happen is it's going to elevate all of these people. You've been digging out a basement with a shovel, and somebody is about to hand you a bulldozer" "We're going to have so much productivity that a lot of people with two-earner income households, one of them is going to drop out of the workforce" "I predict we will actually have deflation of certain core things. Food will get cheaper and housing construction will get cheaper"

Jeff Bezos reveals why he thinks AI will cause a labor shortage, not mass unemployment "There's so many people who are afraid AI is going to take their job. I think there's going to be a labor shortage as a result" "All these smart people keep saying there's going to be no more radiologists because AI can read X-rays better, no more software engineers because AI can program better. These people are wrong" "What's really going to happen is it's going to elevate all of these people. You've been digging out a basement with a shovel, and somebody is about to hand you a bulldozer" "We're going to have so much productivity that a lot of people with two-earner income households, one of them is going to drop out of the workforce" "I predict we will actually have deflation of certain core things. Food will get cheaper and housing construction will get cheaper"

Jaynit

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Elon Musk: As human intelligence plateaus, AI will scale to harness most of the power of the galaxy Elon: "I think we'll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute, and then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy." “ Once you think about artificial intelligence not as sort of this destination that you reach, but really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence, you know, human intelligence has also scaled as the population has increased, and we've been able to store more and more information.” “Because of population declines and low birthrate, human intelligence is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline.” “I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.” “And then probably within five (years), like say 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.” Friedberg: “ Do you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving?” “Do you think there's this evolution of the ecosystem on earth that's underway, that we don't really understand the structure of what's going on?” Elon: “ Yeah, maybe we implicitly know that it's coming.” Elon Musk david friedberg

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I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

David Perell

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Lightspeed's Bucky Moore says the real opportunity in the AI app layer is in large industries far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and where the context engineering to get customer data into the model is extremely nuanced and messy. "I think this is kind of the elephant in the room right now — whether post-training open-source models combined with the unique user feedback you get from being an application provider is defensible enough." "That is going to be an inevitable challenge for any of these industries that hit a maturation point of AI adoption, like legal and software engineering have." "But on the other hand, there are some industries where they're very large, they're far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and probably will continue to be — and the context engineering to actually get the customer data into the model is just so messy. It requires going across different business functions, it requires a lot of hands-on forward-deployed engineering." "Those are the kind of companies that we get really excited about. Because I think being really good at that is not only defensible, but it also allows you to generate a feedback loop with your customers, where you hear a lot of their secrets. And those secrets allow you to feed that back into how you make your product better at the expense of anyone else playing in the space. Because if you're serving the customer, they're only serving you those secrets." "I think Palantir is a good example of this in the pre-AI era, and I think we're going to see many companies ascend in that same way."

Lightspeed's Bucky Moore says the real opportunity in the AI app layer is in large industries far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and where the context engineering to get customer data into the model is extremely nuanced and messy. "I think this is kind of the elephant in the room right now — whether post-training open-source models combined with the unique user feedback you get from being an application provider is defensible enough." "That is going to be an inevitable challenge for any of these industries that hit a maturation point of AI adoption, like legal and software engineering have." "But on the other hand, there are some industries where they're very large, they're far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and probably will continue to be — and the context engineering to actually get the customer data into the model is just so messy. It requires going across different business functions, it requires a lot of hands-on forward-deployed engineering." "Those are the kind of companies that we get really excited about. Because I think being really good at that is not only defensible, but it also allows you to generate a feedback loop with your customers, where you hear a lot of their secrets. And those secrets allow you to feed that back into how you make your product better at the expense of anyone else playing in the space. Because if you're serving the customer, they're only serving you those secrets." "I think Palantir is a good example of this in the pre-AI era, and I think we're going to see many companies ascend in that same way."

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IN NEWS: Traversal launches out of stealth and raises $48M in seed and Series A funding. "With AI-written code, there’s going to be a Cambrian explosion. Most of it is going to be written by AI systems. It's going to get even harder to debug because we don't actually understand what's written." - Anish Agarwal "I think that (majority AI-written code) will throttle the use of AI software engineering tools because if I'm Head of Infrastructure I will think 'I don't trust this'."

IN NEWS: Traversal launches out of stealth and raises $48M in seed and Series A funding. "With AI-written code, there’s going to be a Cambrian explosion. Most of it is going to be written by AI systems. It's going to get even harder to debug because we don't actually understand what's written." - Anish Agarwal "I think that (majority AI-written code) will throttle the use of AI software engineering tools because if I'm Head of Infrastructure I will think 'I don't trust this'."

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Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires." From his appearance on the show in March.

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires." From his appearance on the show in March.

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OpenAI’s Bob McGrew on how AI startups should think about moats Startups building agents today tend to look at the cost of human labor when they think about pricing. For example, some startups building AI lawyers think they’ll be able to charge tens of thousands of dollars per month because human lawyers really expensive. Bob McGrew, former Head of Research at OpenAI, disagrees: “The reason lawyers are expensive is because their time is scarce — there’s only so many people who have undergone that training. But by the time you’ve made an AI model out of it, there will effectively be an infinite number of lawyers.” He continues: “Maybe you with your AI lawyer startup will be able to have a lead over other people, but it’s the same frontier model underneath. Some other startup can come in and compete that away. So we should expect to see it priced at some opportunity cost over the cost of compute.” Where will value accrue in AI? Bob believes it will be at the application layer — so much so that frontier model investment from companies like OpenAI should be viewed as “an option on the valuable places in the application layer.” ChatGPT is one valuable application. Coding is another. He offers startups the following advice: “I think you can compete with frontier labs, but you want to do something more than just a personal productivity task on your computer — something that involves other people or an enterprise. The moats that you have for your business are going to be the same moats they always were: network effects, brand, economies of scale.” Video source: Sequoia Capital (2025)

Startup Archive

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Brian sits on the board of Y Combinator. He said the last batch had 175 companies and only 16 of them weren't enterprise. "Here are the reasons I think it's happening. Number one, when ChatGPT came out, people were afraid it was going to kill their business. Number two, the business model is tricky. There is no consumer business model for AI that I've seen. For example, ChatGPT, there's three ways it can monetize subscriptions. Unfortunately, they're probably going to hit a local maximum percentage of users. Ads, they're hitting a local maximum because Claude and Gemini are not going to do ads. And e-commerce, they shut down the third party apps. And so the first thing is you need to have a business model around consumer AI. People are not trained to pay for information. The second problem is distribution is mature. Like the app store. Now again, top three apps in the app Store are AI, so it does prove you have something revolutionary, you'll find your way to the top. The third thing is, while I think Silicon Valley, we like to describe ourselves as rebels. I think it's very trend based and vibe based. And I think the trend is enterprise. Maybe finally the reason people aren't doing consumer companies is that they're just harder. You have to be good at a lot more things. You generally have to be better at design, marketing, culture, press. It's not purely technology and sales. But my prediction is that we're living in the age of enterprise AI, and I think in the next 12 to 24 months you're gonna see the beginning of a consumer AI renaissance. Almost every app on my home screen has not changed since AI, including Airbnb. I think that's gonna change in two years."

Brian sits on the board of Y Combinator. He said the last batch had 175 companies and only 16 of them weren't enterprise. "Here are the reasons I think it's happening. Number one, when ChatGPT came out, people were afraid it was going to kill their business. Number two, the business model is tricky. There is no consumer business model for AI that I've seen. For example, ChatGPT, there's three ways it can monetize subscriptions. Unfortunately, they're probably going to hit a local maximum percentage of users. Ads, they're hitting a local maximum because Claude and Gemini are not going to do ads. And e-commerce, they shut down the third party apps. And so the first thing is you need to have a business model around consumer AI. People are not trained to pay for information. The second problem is distribution is mature. Like the app store. Now again, top three apps in the app Store are AI, so it does prove you have something revolutionary, you'll find your way to the top. The third thing is, while I think Silicon Valley, we like to describe ourselves as rebels. I think it's very trend based and vibe based. And I think the trend is enterprise. Maybe finally the reason people aren't doing consumer companies is that they're just harder. You have to be good at a lot more things. You generally have to be better at design, marketing, culture, press. It's not purely technology and sales. But my prediction is that we're living in the age of enterprise AI, and I think in the next 12 to 24 months you're gonna see the beginning of a consumer AI renaissance. Almost every app on my home screen has not changed since AI, including Airbnb. I think that's gonna change in two years."

Patrick OShaughnessy

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Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

TBPN

216,684 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

ELON MUSK: "I think that there's increasingly a convergence between SpaceX and Tesla and xAI, if the future is solar powered AI satellites, which it pretty much needs to be in order to harness a non trivial amount of the energy of the sun, you have to move to solar powered AI satellites in deep space, which somewhat is accomplice of Tesla expertise and SpaceX expertise and xAI on the AI front. So, I just feel like over time, there's somewhat of a convergence there."

ELON MUSK: "I think that there's increasingly a convergence between SpaceX and Tesla and xAI, if the future is solar powered AI satellites, which it pretty much needs to be in order to harness a non trivial amount of the energy of the sun, you have to move to solar powered AI satellites in deep space, which somewhat is accomplice of Tesla expertise and SpaceX expertise and xAI on the AI front. So, I just feel like over time, there's somewhat of a convergence there."

DogeDesigner

92,893 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Marc Andreessen says AI is hyper democratizing. “Is the future of the world going to be one or a small number of companies, or for that matter, governments or super AIs that kind of own and control everything?” “Or is this a technology that's going to diffuse out and be in everybody's hands?” “This is the time in which AI is actually hyper democratizing. It has spread to more individuals, both in the country and around the world in the shortest period of time of any new technology I think in history.” “The best AIs in the world are in the consumer products.” “This technology is going to be in everybody's hands. And everybody is going to be able to use it to optimize the things that they do, have it be a thought partner, assistant for building companies.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

Marc Andreessen says AI is hyper democratizing. “Is the future of the world going to be one or a small number of companies, or for that matter, governments or super AIs that kind of own and control everything?” “Or is this a technology that's going to diffuse out and be in everybody's hands?” “This is the time in which AI is actually hyper democratizing. It has spread to more individuals, both in the country and around the world in the shortest period of time of any new technology I think in history.” “The best AIs in the world are in the consumer products.” “This technology is going to be in everybody's hands. And everybody is going to be able to use it to optimize the things that they do, have it be a thought partner, assistant for building companies.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

a16z

79,935 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

.Jon Callaghan (Founder, True Ventures) on the scale of the AI boom: “Our numbers are 2 to 4 trillion of CapEx going into the AI wave over the next five years. In every prior wave (Web2, mobile, cloud) the value created at the application layer on top of that CapEx was 5 to 10x.” “We’re talking about markets that haven’t been invented yet. Net new consumer behaviors. Net new enterprise behaviors. At an unprecedented level.” For founders and investors, he calls it “the vintage of a lifetime.”

.Jon Callaghan (Founder, True Ventures) on the scale of the AI boom: “Our numbers are 2 to 4 trillion of CapEx going into the AI wave over the next five years. In every prior wave (Web2, mobile, cloud) the value created at the application layer on top of that CapEx was 5 to 10x.” “We’re talking about markets that haven’t been invented yet. Net new consumer behaviors. Net new enterprise behaviors. At an unprecedented level.” For founders and investors, he calls it “the vintage of a lifetime.”

TBPN

23,557 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Thiel Fellow and cofounder of Opt32 Milan Lustig on what's happening with CS majors: "I think there's going to need to be a reallocation of talent and focus within the field of CS." "As we see artificial intelligence capabilities advance, we see a move up layers of abstraction. To where skills like system architecting and higher-level theory are going to become more and more important, and very low-level implementation details — like being a front-end developer — don't provide as much value. "I don't necessarily think CS as a whole is dropping off, so much as it's reallocating toward those higher levels of abstraction."

Thiel Fellow and cofounder of Opt32 Milan Lustig on what's happening with CS majors: "I think there's going to need to be a reallocation of talent and focus within the field of CS." "As we see artificial intelligence capabilities advance, we see a move up layers of abstraction. To where skills like system architecting and higher-level theory are going to become more and more important, and very low-level implementation details — like being a front-end developer — don't provide as much value. "I don't necessarily think CS as a whole is dropping off, so much as it's reallocating toward those higher levels of abstraction."

TBPN

14,717 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Marc Andreessen says 99.9999% of the value of AI will accrue to the users of AI, not the companies who create it: "If you look at the total amount of economic value creation downstream of the internet—something like 99% of that accrued to the users of the internet, not the companies that built the internet." "Same thing with a smartphone. Who gets the economic value of the smartphone? Everybody in the world who uses a smartphone to become more productive in their life or in their business gets 99% of the value from the smartphone. Apple and Google get 1% of the value from the smartphone." "I think AI is going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that—it might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is gonna accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

Marc Andreessen says 99.9999% of the value of AI will accrue to the users of AI, not the companies who create it: "If you look at the total amount of economic value creation downstream of the internet—something like 99% of that accrued to the users of the internet, not the companies that built the internet." "Same thing with a smartphone. Who gets the economic value of the smartphone? Everybody in the world who uses a smartphone to become more productive in their life or in their business gets 99% of the value from the smartphone. Apple and Google get 1% of the value from the smartphone." "I think AI is going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that—it might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is gonna accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

a16z

39,093 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 DAVID SACKS: “I don't think there's going to be this huge job loss associated with this [AI] productivity boom that we're going to get. In fact, I think what's actually happening now is that AI is becoming synonymous with the American economy … It's generating 75% of GDP.”

🚨 DAVID SACKS: “I don't think there's going to be this huge job loss associated with this [AI] productivity boom that we're going to get. In fact, I think what's actually happening now is that AI is becoming synonymous with the American economy … It's generating 75% of GDP.”

Chief Nerd

79,986 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce