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"There's so much value to be created at the application layer." - Logan Kilpatrick "I think about these three curves: the cost of AI is going down 99%. The intelligence of AI is up to the right." "Consumer understanding of AI and their willingness to pay is going up,"...

18,742 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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Logan Kilpatrick's profile picture
Logan Kilpatrick1 year ago

its true

The Information's profile picture
The Information1 year ago

Meta AI researchers are fretting over the threat of Chinese AI, whose quality caught American firms, including OpenAI, by surprise.

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I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

David Perell

86,741 views • 1 year ago

Lightspeed's Bucky Moore says the real opportunity in the AI app layer is in large industries far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and where the context engineering to get customer data into the model is extremely nuanced and messy. "I think this is kind of the elephant in the room right now — whether post-training open-source models combined with the unique user feedback you get from being an application provider is defensible enough." "That is going to be an inevitable challenge for any of these industries that hit a maturation point of AI adoption, like legal and software engineering have." "But on the other hand, there are some industries where they're very large, they're far enough afield from where the model providers are today — and probably will continue to be — and the context engineering to actually get the customer data into the model is just so messy. It requires going across different business functions, it requires a lot of hands-on forward-deployed engineering." "Those are the kind of companies that we get really excited about. Because I think being really good at that is not only defensible, but it also allows you to generate a feedback loop with your customers, where you hear a lot of their secrets. And those secrets allow you to feed that back into how you make your product better at the expense of anyone else playing in the space. Because if you're serving the customer, they're only serving you those secrets." "I think Palantir is a good example of this in the pre-AI era, and I think we're going to see many companies ascend in that same way."

TBPN

46,746 views • 3 months ago

OpenAI’s Bob McGrew on how AI startups should think about moats Startups building agents today tend to look at the cost of human labor when they think about pricing. For example, some startups building AI lawyers think they’ll be able to charge tens of thousands of dollars per month because human lawyers really expensive. Bob McGrew, former Head of Research at OpenAI, disagrees: “The reason lawyers are expensive is because their time is scarce — there’s only so many people who have undergone that training. But by the time you’ve made an AI model out of it, there will effectively be an infinite number of lawyers.” He continues: “Maybe you with your AI lawyer startup will be able to have a lead over other people, but it’s the same frontier model underneath. Some other startup can come in and compete that away. So we should expect to see it priced at some opportunity cost over the cost of compute.” Where will value accrue in AI? Bob believes it will be at the application layer — so much so that frontier model investment from companies like OpenAI should be viewed as “an option on the valuable places in the application layer.” ChatGPT is one valuable application. Coding is another. He offers startups the following advice: “I think you can compete with frontier labs, but you want to do something more than just a personal productivity task on your computer — something that involves other people or an enterprise. The moats that you have for your business are going to be the same moats they always were: network effects, brand, economies of scale.” Video source: Sequoia Capital (2025)

Startup Archive

74,228 views • 1 year ago

Brian sits on the board of Y Combinator. He said the last batch had 175 companies and only 16 of them weren't enterprise. "Here are the reasons I think it's happening. Number one, when ChatGPT came out, people were afraid it was going to kill their business. Number two, the business model is tricky. There is no consumer business model for AI that I've seen. For example, ChatGPT, there's three ways it can monetize subscriptions. Unfortunately, they're probably going to hit a local maximum percentage of users. Ads, they're hitting a local maximum because Claude and Gemini are not going to do ads. And e-commerce, they shut down the third party apps. And so the first thing is you need to have a business model around consumer AI. People are not trained to pay for information. The second problem is distribution is mature. Like the app store. Now again, top three apps in the app Store are AI, so it does prove you have something revolutionary, you'll find your way to the top. The third thing is, while I think Silicon Valley, we like to describe ourselves as rebels. I think it's very trend based and vibe based. And I think the trend is enterprise. Maybe finally the reason people aren't doing consumer companies is that they're just harder. You have to be good at a lot more things. You generally have to be better at design, marketing, culture, press. It's not purely technology and sales. But my prediction is that we're living in the age of enterprise AI, and I think in the next 12 to 24 months you're gonna see the beginning of a consumer AI renaissance. Almost every app on my home screen has not changed since AI, including Airbnb. I think that's gonna change in two years."

Patrick OShaughnessy

285,382 views • 1 month ago