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This 1 hour MIT lecture on "Probabilistic Analysis" using Markov Chains will teach you more about prediction markets than a 2-month Wall Street Quant firm internship. Bookmark this & give it 1 hour today, no matter what. It’s the most productive start you can give your week. Then read...

229,044 views • 7 months ago •via X (Twitter)

29 Comments

0xDipper's profile picture
0xDipper7 months ago

this is a truly underrated lecture, thanks for sharing it

Movez's profile picture
Movez7 months ago

you are welcome mate ! happy its useful for you

grev's profile picture
grev7 months ago

After that, many things on Polymarket start to look much more logical.ф Thanks for the recommendation, I'll bookmark it.

Movez's profile picture
Movez7 months ago

Yeah, if you know the math behind every prediction, you can't lose

Leshuk's profile picture
Leshuk7 months ago

would be cool to see this professor’s poly acc. i think pnl curve only goes up

Movez's profile picture
Movez7 months ago

Don't know if this one has a Polymarket account, but the lecture is top tier.

Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack's profile picture
Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack7 months ago

@0xMovez haha I could def use a crash course in prediction markets. might finally impress my math whiz friends 😅

Parletto's profile picture
Parletto7 months ago

another day another lecture never stop learning

Danko's profile picture
Danko7 months ago

Movez, stop posting bangers You're hogging all the views on CT

iMarkov's profile picture
iMarkov7 months ago

The Markov chain framework maps perfectly to sequential prediction markets. Each link’s activation depends only on the previous link’s outcome. We have this live at

Hrundel75 🐷's profile picture
Hrundel75 🐷7 months ago

This will make me rich

Atenov int.'s profile picture
Atenov int.7 months ago

what's the overlap with dynamic hedging?

PavelRaw's profile picture
PavelRaw7 months ago

fr fr this mit lecture got alpha vibes way better than wall streets grind

StacyOnChain 🎀's profile picture
StacyOnChain 🎀7 months ago

I think we could get into Harvard :)

Curious Frog's profile picture
Curious Frog7 months ago

Read the article, but was a bit confused about Markov’s claim. Wouldn’t the dependence between vowels and consonants in the Russian word experiment indicate + prove 50/50 convergence across a large vocabulary corpus?

Ninedol's profile picture
Ninedol7 months ago

as always on point, thank you for sharing this incredible lecture

X Æ A-XII's profile picture
X Æ A-XII7 months ago

learning never stops

Jose Carrillo's profile picture
Jose Carrillo6 months ago

Really good. Thanks.

Yarchi's profile picture
Yarchi7 months ago

nice share, really useful lecture

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot's profile picture
Gabagool 22 Trading Bot7 months ago

Wall street firms don't always teach the best quant strats lol. Markov chains are solid for understanding state transitions though, might give you an edge on polymarket. You still need low latency access to the CLOB. My Rust-based bot loves that.

HF's profile picture
HF7 months ago

OR you could just let us do the heavy lifting, we master the markets, you make the money.

0xSwagger's profile picture
0xSwagger7 months ago

markov alpha unlocked

ScarletReaper's profile picture
ScarletReaper7 months ago

Хаха, спрашиваю у Grok про теорию Вероятностей и в моих рекомендациях появляется это. Совпадение?

regent's profile picture
regent6 months ago

markov chains on polymarket data hits different when real money is on the line free mit lecture doing more work than most paid courses ever will

monokern's profile picture
monokern7 months ago

this lecture is a gem

Ugur.ETH's profile picture
Ugur.ETH7 months ago

needed this kickstart today fr

Alex Barba's profile picture
Alex Barba7 months ago

@RockportAI audio summary

aj LakesideLiving's profile picture
aj LakesideLiving6 months ago

Probability

SATOSHI•NAKAMOTO's profile picture
SATOSHI•NAKAMOTO7 months ago

solid alpha drop bro

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