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🚨 THIS CHART SHOULD NOT EXIST. The Dot-Com crash overlaid on today's S&P 500. The match is almost perfect. Every week I check if the pattern finally breaks. It doesn't. The map says the top isn't even in yet: → One final pump toward 7,800 → Rejection → First...

32,672 просмотров • 18 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

83,479 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨 THE S&P 500 IS MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what makes people poor. I keep seeing people say the same thing: “It probably won’t crash. It always goes up. Just buy the index.” That is exactly what concerns me. When you buy an individual stock, you understand you can lose money. But with the S&P 500, it is different. Most people do not even consider the possibility of a real crash anymore. Just look at the Dot-Com Bubble: Back then, everyone also thought everything was fine. The internet was real. The companies were real. The index kept climbing, and people convinced themselves it would keep climbing for years. But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears. And prices right now are absurd again. The S&P 500 is printing new highs with barely any meaningful pullbacks. AI-related stocks are carrying the index. Capital is concentrated in a small group of companies. And retail confidence is once again moving into extreme territory. That is where we are now. People are not buying because the setup is cheap. They are buying because they believe the S&P 500 cannot fail. Remember: the market becomes most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk. For the record: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

91,330 просмотров • 1 месяц назад