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This clip gets into a model that keeps the keys with the holder, avoids bridges and conversions, and still opens the door to liquidity and BTC-native yield. The part that matters most is how it stays entirely in Bitcoin while trying to solve a problem the industry has struggled...

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GoMining

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27,583 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

GM and welcome to Episode 29 of Multichain Nation with Native | Bitcoin Yield Hub🐝 「🦑」 🪙 Native is unlocking utility for Bitcoin holders 👏 Watch Episode 29 to learn how Native is building the future of Bitcoin DeFi on Sui 👇
30:07

GM and welcome to Episode 29 of Multichain Nation with Native | Bitcoin Yield Hub🐝 「🦑」 🪙 Native is unlocking utility for Bitcoin holders 👏 Watch Episode 29 to learn how Native is building the future of Bitcoin DeFi on Sui 👇

Multichain Nation

13,320 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

We're extremely excited to announce our partnership with Avalon Labs and bring USDa, the Bitcoin Money to Sonic! Introducing USDa, the Bitcoin Money by Avalon Labs! 🚀 Avalon Labs is pioneering a new era in Bitcoin utility. USDa transforms BTC into a productive asset, bridging the gap between DeFi & CeFi with liquidity, stability, and yield. Reaching an impressive 2Billion TVL in Dec 2024... sonic users will want to dive into this one! READ THREAD🧵👇🏽 Avalon Labs Sonic
0:48

We're extremely excited to announce our partnership with Avalon Labs and bring USDa, the Bitcoin Money to Sonic! Introducing USDa, the Bitcoin Money by Avalon Labs! 🚀 Avalon Labs is pioneering a new era in Bitcoin utility. USDa transforms BTC into a productive asset, bridging the gap between DeFi & CeFi with liquidity, stability, and yield. Reaching an impressive 2Billion TVL in Dec 2024... sonic users will want to dive into this one! READ THREAD🧵👇🏽 Avalon Labs Sonic

SwapX

11,238 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚨 Missed the Bitcoin Conference last week? No worries, we’ve got you covered. Our GM, Brandon Wolf, hit the stage and dropped some serious gems on the current state of Lace and where we’re headed next. From BTC support to multichain strategy, there’s a lot packed in, and a few intriguing hints about the future. If you're into Bitcoin, wallets, or where Lace is going next…this one’s worth a listen. #Bitcoin #Cardano #Crypto
7:20

🚨 Missed the Bitcoin Conference last week? No worries, we’ve got you covered. Our GM, Brandon Wolf, hit the stage and dropped some serious gems on the current state of Lace and where we’re headed next. From BTC support to multichain strategy, there’s a lot packed in, and a few intriguing hints about the future. If you're into Bitcoin, wallets, or where Lace is going next…this one’s worth a listen. #Bitcoin #Cardano #Crypto

lace.io

100,450 просмотров • 1 год назад

$MSTR “My investment thesis is you buy technology companies that have a dominant place in their industry that are going to eat everything, and then you just wait.” - Michael Saylor If you embraced Saylor’s bet in 2020, sat through the volatility, and ignored the general advice along the way, you’ve achieved an annualized return most investors would dream of. Strategy despite two 70–80% drawdowns, has still compounded at 41% annually since adopting the Bitcoin Standard, outperforming Bitcoin itself over the same period. That bet started with 21,454 BTC acquired for $250 million. Today, it stands at 843,775 BTC, representing 4% of the entire Bitcoin network. If you believe Bitcoin remains the dominant monetary network, Strategy now owns roughly 20× more Bitcoin than the world’s second largest corporate holder. And while Bitcoin has spent much of this year under pressure, Strategy has still accumulated roughly 4× the entire treasury of the world’s second largest corporate holder, through its upgraded capital acquisition engine in $STRC I understand why Michael doesn’t spend much time asking for advice. Whether you agree with every decision or not, he’s spent six years executing one thesis with remarkable consistency. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
1:43

$MSTR “My investment thesis is you buy technology companies that have a dominant place in their industry that are going to eat everything, and then you just wait.” - Michael Saylor If you embraced Saylor’s bet in 2020, sat through the volatility, and ignored the general advice along the way, you’ve achieved an annualized return most investors would dream of. Strategy despite two 70–80% drawdowns, has still compounded at 41% annually since adopting the Bitcoin Standard, outperforming Bitcoin itself over the same period. That bet started with 21,454 BTC acquired for $250 million. Today, it stands at 843,775 BTC, representing 4% of the entire Bitcoin network. If you believe Bitcoin remains the dominant monetary network, Strategy now owns roughly 20× more Bitcoin than the world’s second largest corporate holder. And while Bitcoin has spent much of this year under pressure, Strategy has still accumulated roughly 4× the entire treasury of the world’s second largest corporate holder, through its upgraded capital acquisition engine in $STRC I understand why Michael doesn’t spend much time asking for advice. Whether you agree with every decision or not, he’s spent six years executing one thesis with remarkable consistency. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

28,537 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Tillman says if you're just sitting on your Bitcoin, you're the sucker in the room "The thing you're hammering on, which is very underspoken and most people don't realise, is that volatility is something that can be harvested" "If you're literally trying to just sit on your Bitcoin, you're the sucker in the room. The reason the inflows happen is because it has the potential to give you the volatility and the depth of liquidity needed to harvest that volatility" "That's a very unique value proposition that Bitcoin has given the world across a global market"
0:36

Tillman says if you're just sitting on your Bitcoin, you're the sucker in the room "The thing you're hammering on, which is very underspoken and most people don't realise, is that volatility is something that can be harvested" "If you're literally trying to just sit on your Bitcoin, you're the sucker in the room. The reason the inflows happen is because it has the potential to give you the volatility and the depth of liquidity needed to harvest that volatility" "That's a very unique value proposition that Bitcoin has given the world across a global market"

The Wolf Of All Streets

72,503 просмотров • 4 дней назад