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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $74,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short-term Up/Down markets through high-frequency accumulation of two-sided positions with directional exposure His strategy has six steps: 1. At the start of each 5-minute market, it records the current Bitcoin... or Ethereum price 2. It then tracks the asset’s movement, remaining time, short-term momentum, and volatility 3. Based on this data, it calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 4. It buys an outcome when the market price appears undervalued 5. If the asset’s price direction changes, the bot may first buy Up and then start buying Down 6. The opposite side partially hedges the accumulated position, while the remaining directional exposure creates the edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he maintains positive expected value and consistently grows his depositshow more

VALIX

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every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

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This bot made +$201,000 in just 1 month on 5-minute and 15-minute markets! But there’s one catch. It paid $109,000 in taker fees! Account: Final net profit: +$95,000. Strategy: arbitrage during high volatility. Example of one setup: > buys Up at 66¢ for $441 > buys Down at 19¢ for $110 Taker fees: $16. Total invested: $567. If Up wins: $667 − $567 = +$100 net profit. If Down wins: $579 − $567 = +$12 net profit. Profitable in both outcomes, even after fees. How it works: > buys the first outcome > waits for volatility expansion > quickly buys the second side with a market order > calculates fees in advance > uses Kelly Criterion for position sizing Taker rebates launched on Polymarket today. Starting tomorrow, this bot will make even more - recovering part of the fees and earning extra bonuses from higher rebate tiers. Smart bots adapt the fastest.

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