👇 This is an important window into how Iran is viewing the current diplomatic track. A post-Islamabad interview with Majid Shakeri, an advisor to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation in Islamabad and headed talks with JD Vance. It offers a revealing look into how the Iranian side,... especially Ghalibaf’s camp, is assessing the process. He says the first round was fundamentally about each side evaluating the other. But he highlights a core “problem” with the US delegation: “it neither has clear goals nor does it have the necessary mandate and the necessary ability for decision-making.” At the same time, he claims that for everything raised, “a solution truly existed.” His overall assessment of the round is telling: it was “not completely failed or completely won,” and no one expected that in a single round, a “result would immediately be created.” On escalation, he addresses Trump’s blockade threat. He says it is unclear whether it is a bluff or not. But in either case, he suggests it does not fundamentally alter Iran’s position, where the Strait of Hormuz remains its key leverage. More striking is his description of Iran’s economic posture. He argues Iran has long prepared for a blockade scenario. With imports reduced during the war, it now has more resources and liquidity, including proceeds from oil sold at sea. And this line stands out: “parallel to the war” the “the sale of Iranian oil no longer has any connection to the Dirham or any type of infrastructure susceptible to sanctions or American pressure.” If true, that is a significant shift given Iran’s previous dependence on UAE-linked financial channels. He adds that oil trade and currency exchange are now happening at the point of sale, for example in China. He also points to a broader logistical shift, saying Iran has diversified away from southern and western routes toward land-based and other alternatives, and that this transition is already complete for vital goods. On a wider geopolitical level, he argues a US blockade would “expand the game” by pulling in China more directly, ultimately to Iran’s benefit. He also notes that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and shifts toward Red Sea export routes increase the leverage of actors like the Houthis. His closing assessment is blunt. He characterizes US decision-making currently as irrational and argues Washington is pursuing a path that raises costs for both sides while making the situation more entrenched and difficult to resolve.show more

Sina Toossi

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