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👇 This is an important window into how Iran is viewing the current diplomatic track. A post-Islamabad interview with Majid Shakeri, an advisor to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation in Islamabad and headed talks with JD Vance. It offers a revealing look into how the Iranian side,...

66,659 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker who led the first round of negotiations with JD Vance in Islamabad, gave an important TV interview today. In it, he lays out his narrative of the war, the diplomatic track, and signals where Iran’s political goalposts are currently. He projects firmness throughout. Iran, in his telling, will not back down from its negotiating demands. At the same time, he frames negotiations not as a retreat from conflict but as its continuation by other means, a way to consolidate gains and secure what he calls a “lasting peace.” 🔴His core framework is that military power, public mobilization, and diplomacy are inseparable: ➡️“Today, we have the ‘field,’ the ‘street,’ and ‘diplomacy of authority.’ These are not three separate things. Do not make a mistake. Today the street, the field, and diplomacy are together.” 🔴He argues this is precisely why now is the moment for diplomacy. Iran, he says, has reached a peak position militarily and in terms of social cohesion, and negotiations are meant to lock that in politically: ➡️“In the military sphere, we are at a maximum point. The street has given strength to the field. We have achieved part of our demands militarily, but they must now be stabilized and recorded politically. This is where diplomacy must take the flag in hand.” 🔴At the same time, he signals to hardliners to not be overly triumphalist. Iran’s asymmetric warfare has paid off, but he is explicit that this does not mean superiority over the United States: Iran has succeeded without being the stronger military power. 🔴On escalation, he is blunt. Iran is ready for the war to resume if necessary. He warns that the Strait of Hormuz remains a central lever and that restrictions will continue if the US “blockade” is not ended. 🔴Passage, in any case, will be governed by Iranian “protocols.” 🔴At the same time, he presents a calibrated position. Iran, he says, wants normalization in the Strait and does not seek broader disruption: ➡️“We have always sought normalization… but when commitments were not fulfilled, we restricted traffic. 🔴He adds that access will remain open to countries that are not hostile: ➡️“We want those who do not act with hostility toward us to pass easily. We are not seeking to create insecurity.” 🔴But that openness is conditional and controlled: ➡️“This Strait must be used by the world, but with the protocols that we set.” 🔴On the ceasefire and negotiations, his narrative is clear. The United States, not Iran, initiated the diplomatic shift. He says US ultimatums failed and that Washington, through Pakistan, sent a 15 point proposal. Iran rejected it and countered with its own 10 points after internal deliberations at the Supreme National Security Council and consultation with the Supreme Leader. 🔴According to him, the US accepted the "generalities" of the Iranian framework and sought a ceasefire to negotiate on that basis. 🔴On trust, his message is stark. In Islamabad, he says JD Vance spoke of "good faith", and his response was that Iran also came in good faith, but with zero trust. The burden, he says, is on the US to change that. 🔴He underscores that Iran’s negotiating positions have not shifted. They remain aligned with the framework set by Ali Khamenei: ➡️“Our strategy was those same measures the Supreme Leader has stated. We have not pursued and will not pursue anything outside that framework.” 🔴He adds that the delegation is operating fully in line with current leader Mojataba Khamenei, “neither ahead nor behind.” 🔴He repeatedly returns to the goal of a durable outcome: ➡️“We want a lasting peace, one with guarantees so this is not repeated.” 🔴He says the first round of Islamabad talks produced some movement, but major gaps remain: ➡️“We have had progress, but our distances are still great. Some fundamental points remain.” 🔴Still, he suggests one important outcome from the Islamabad talks was a more realistic understanding on both sides: ➡️“These negotiations did not resolve our mistrust, but both delegations gained a more realistic understanding of each other.” 🔴He credits the tripartite format for helping resolve misunderstandings in real time. 🔴Finally, he outlines Iran’s preferred structure for any deal going forward, a step by step process rooted in reciprocity: ➡️“Our policy is step by step action. Commitment against commitment. They must take one step, we take one step. It should not be that we fulfill our commitments and they do not.” The throughline of the interview is clear. Iran sees itself as having gained leverage through the war. Diplomacy is meant to convert that leverage into durable political outcomes. But that process will be conditional and shaped by deep mistrust, with readiness to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and readiness for renewed escalation and war.

Sina Toossi

24,785 次观看 • 5 个月前

Bilbo Baggins: When a Life Is Stretched to Its Limit There is a line spoken by Bilbo Baggins in The Lord of the Rings that has stayed with me: “I’m old, Gandalf. I know I don’t look it, but I’m beginning to feel it in my heart. I feel thin, sort of stretched, like butter that has been scraped over too much bread.” At first, this might sound like nothing more than the complaint of someone who has lived too long. But what caught my attention was not that Bilbo says he is old. It is the way he describes that feeling: “I feel thin.” He does not say that he is in pain. He says that he is being stretched. And from there, I began to see this line as an image of a being carrying a burden greater than the scope of an ordinary life. This is my personal interpretation. Tolkien does not directly present a concept of “capacity” or “the elasticity of a life” in the way I am using those ideas here. I am simply taking Bilbo’s own image of “butter and bread” and using it to look more deeply into the feeling he is describing. Too Much Bread and Too Little Butter If I had to imagine that feeling through another image, I would think of a balloon. When it is in its natural state, it has a certain shape. As the pressure increases, it begins to stretch. It has not burst. But it is no longer in its original state. And I think Bilbo is much the same. He has possessed the Ring for sixty years. Yet what is remarkable is that, after all that time, Bilbo is still Bilbo. He still loves the Shire, loves Bag End, cares about Frodo, writes books, smokes, and talks with Gandalf. The Ring has affected him, but it has not completely taken over who he is. That is why I do not think Bilbo’s endurance should simply be understood as: “He was so strong that the Ring could not affect him.” Quite the opposite. The words “I feel thin, sort of stretched...” show that he has already begun to feel that pressure from within. And this is where the image of “butter and bread” becomes especially interesting. The piece of bread does not necessarily have to be understood as the Ring itself. In the way I see it, it is something broader. It is the entire scope of what Bilbo is carrying: the passing years, his unusual existence, the pressure of the Ring, and everything that comes with it. The butter, meanwhile, is Bilbo himself. A finite being with finite capacity. A little butter is enough for a reasonably sized piece of bread. But when it has to be spread across a piece of bread that is too large, it has to become thinner. And that is what I feel in Bilbo. It is not that he suddenly becomes weak. It is that the same being is having to stretch itself to accommodate a burden that has grown beyond the boundaries of an ordinary life. “Stretched” Does Not Mean Destroyed This is the part I find most important. Bilbo is still alive. He is still himself. He still has things he loves and still has the ability to experience the world around him. But something has appeared within him that perhaps was not there before: He feels that he is being stretched too thin. So, being “stretched” does not mean that Bilbo has been destroyed. It shows that he is still enduring, but that his endurance has begun to leave a mark. Being able to endure does not mean being unaffected. A person can endure something for a very long time and still become tired. Someone can continue living almost normally while inwardly feeling that they are being stretched too thin. Bilbo is in precisely that state. And perhaps that is why his next words feel so natural: “I need a holiday, a very long holiday...” I like the way Bilbo says this. He does not try to prove that he can endure more. He simply realizes that he needs to leave. To me, this is a remarkable form of awareness. Bilbo does not wait until he has completely lost himself before recognizing the problem. He realizes that he is being stretched. And from that realization, he wants to step away from the circumstances creating that pressure. Recognizing Your Limit Is Also a Form of Strength If we continue with the image of the balloon, Bilbo has enough elasticity to withstand that pressure for decades. But that elasticity is not infinite. The more it is stretched, the farther it moves from its original state. And what catches my attention most is that Bilbo is still aware enough to recognize this. From this perspective, I see Bilbo’s decision to leave in a different way. He does not leave because he has failed. He leaves because he has recognized his limit. To me, this is much more meaningful than simply saying that Bilbo is “strong” because he was able to possess the Ring for so long. A being can be remarkably resilient and still have limits. And being able to recognize those limits is not weakness. It is awareness. Bilbo does not say: “I can endure more.” He says, in a very different way: “I need a holiday.” Perhaps that simplicity is exactly what makes the line so thought-provoking. He does not need to prove how strong he is. He only needs to be honest about what he is feeling. Why Is the Image of the “Butter” So Sad? That is also why I find Bilbo’s image of the butter so sad. Bilbo is still there. He has not disappeared. He has not been destroyed. But he feels as though he has been spread too thin. The image does not describe a moment of collapse. It describes a process. The burden creates pressure. The pressure forces Bilbo to adapt. That prolonged adaptation makes him feel increasingly stretched. And eventually, he realizes that he cannot continue that way forever. That is what makes the words “I feel thin” so important. “Thin” is not a declaration of weakness. It is a sign that a being has been pulled away from its natural state for too long. And recognizing that opens a choice for Bilbo: To leave. It makes me see Bilbo differently: “Bilbo is not a being that cannot be stretched; he is a being that has endured pressure for a very long time, yet remained aware enough to recognize that his capacity to stretch is not infinite.” And perhaps that is what I like most about this line. Strength is not always about enduring more. Sometimes, strength is knowing that you have endured enough.

🎼🌺Music Love♥️

15,306 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS FAIL, PRESSURE CONTINUES - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours The diplomatic track did not produce a result in this window. After extended, high-level negotiations in Islamabad, the United States and Iran left without an agreement, despite what both sides described as a final round of talks. At the same time, Lebanon remains active, the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved, and the broader regional pressure structure has not changed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: FAILED ROUND, NOT A BREAKTHROUGH The most important development in this window is straightforward: • U.S. and Iranian delegations held 21 hours of direct talks • No agreement was reached • Both sides left without accepting terms • Each side blamed the other The core issues did not move: • U.S. demands: nuclear rollback and unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz • Iranian demands: sanctions relief, reparations, control over Hormuz, and a regional ceasefire including Lebanon Those positions remain fundamentally incompatible. At its core, this is not just a ceasefire negotiation. It is a negotiation over Iran’s long-term ability to project power: • The U.S. is pushing to dismantle that capability, including nuclear, missile, and proxy elements • Iran is trying to preserve enough of it to remain a regional power Both sides are still signaling willingness to continue talks, but this round produced no progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: CONTINUED STRIKES, NO LINK TO CEASEFIRE Lebanon remains the most active battlefield and was not affected by the failed negotiations. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, with reporting confirming: • Multiple strike waves across southern towns • At least 11 killed in recent operations • Continued targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure and positions At the same time, Hezbollah continues: • Intermittent rocket fire toward Israel • Ongoing clashes along the border This reinforces the established fact that there is no operational pause in Lebanon. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ STRAIT OF HORMUZ: NAVAL MOVEMENTS AND PARTIAL OPENING The most important operational shift in this window is in the Strait itself. Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz, tied to planned mine-clearing operations. Three supertankers successfully exited the Gulf, while hundreds remain queued, and Iran continues to signal control and leverage over access. At the same time, the U.S. has now moved beyond signaling: • President Trump announced the Navy will interdict vessels that pay tolls to Iran • He indicated a willingness to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait • The stated objective is to eliminate Iran’s ability to monetize or control passage This creates a new reality: • Hormuz is not fully closed • It is not fully open • It is now becoming an actively contested maritime zone ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GLOBAL ENERGY RESPONSE Markets are already adapting to the disruption. • Tankers are rerouting away from the Gulf • U.S. exports are rising toward record levels • Gulf Coast refineries are running near capacity • Major buyers are competing for non-Gulf supply The effect is clear. Iran disrupted supply, the global market began rerouting around it, that does not remove Iran’s leverage. It limits how long that leverage can be sustained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • U.S.–Iran talks failed to produce an agreement • Both sides left Islamabad without accepting terms, though talks may continue • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire • The U.S. has begun direct naval movement through Hormuz, including destroyer transits and upcoming mine-clearing operations • Shipping is partially resuming, but the Strait remains unstable and contested ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT This was a real negotiation attempt. It failed. And the reason it failed is becoming clearer. Iran continues to negotiate as if it holds structural leverage over the outcome. The battlefield suggests otherwise. Its position is weaker than its posture. But it is not without leverage. That leverage is concentrated in two places: • The ability to disrupt Hormuz and global energy flow • The ability to keep secondary fronts, especially Lebanon, active The first creates economic pressure. The second prevents clean diplomatic separation. At the same time, the United States is signaling something equally important: It is willing to test those limits directly. Naval transits through Hormuz are not symbolic. They are the early stages of forcing open the most important pressure point Iran still holds. That is the real signal underneath the headlines. Not just that talks failed. But that both sides are now preparing for what happens if they continue to fail.

Inside_Israel_Intel

22,034 次观看 • 5 个月前

Global reset. Listen closely — this is one of the most important breakdowns yet of what’s unfolding around the Iran situation. It is a peek behind the curtain to President Trump’s longterm strategy. After Trump ordered U.S. Naval forces to begin a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Maria Bartiromo laid out what she says is the broader geopolitical shift now underway. BARTIROMO: “Very big news. We have major developments this morning with the president directing the Navy to begin this blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.” “This is very important because Iran tried hard to extort the global economy and take over securing the Strait of Hormuz.” “It is not working.” “As you just saw, the president’s post this morning on Truth Social, that the U.S. Navy is beginning this blockade right now of the Strait of Hormuz.” “Why is this important? Because the strait is a narrow waterway. Typically, the strait is the choke point where 20% of the oil and gas of the world is traveling through this strait and as a result of what you are seeing this morning with the Navy beginning this blockade, it will be able to stop ships.” “What we are seeing as a result? We are seeing a complete diversion.” “You’re seeing major super tankers change direction and go to the Gulf of America for oil and gas.” “The president was very clear they his address to the nation a week and-a-half ago.” “He said that the United States right now is operating at 95% capacity.” “He said that the United States right now is producing more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined and if you remember, he said it twice, he said let me say that again.” “The U.S. Is producing more oil and gas that Saudi Arabia and Russia combined.” “He directed allies to buy oil and gas from America.” “The U.S. and allies are increasing their naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz right now, to indicate to the world that, yes, Iran wanted the strait closed.” “It will then be closed and all the traffic will be redirected to the Gulf of America where the United States will up its capacity and up its sales of oil and gas to the rest of the world.”

Overton

69,312 次观看 • 5 个月前

#WATCH | On being asked about the West Asia conflict and where the Islamabad MoU stands right now, Senior Journalist, Political Commentator & Author, Fareed Zakaria says, "It's completely dead. It was predictable that it would be dead... Iran has figured out it has a usable nuclear weapon that can be used as leverage, which is control over the Strait of Hormuz...What we are trying to solve now is a problem created by the war itself, and even that has not been solved. In my opinion, the whole thing is a very humiliating defeat for the United States" "It's completely dead. And it was predictable that it would be dead because it is a memorandum of misunderstanding...Iran has figured out it has a usable nuclear weapon, in other words, a weapon that is actually more powerful because it can be used as leverage. That leverage is control over the Strait of Hormuz, and they want to assert that power...To give you an understanding of how poorly this war has gone for the United States, remember President Trump's original goal, which was to destroy the Iranian regime, have the people of Iran launch an uprising, and bring democracy to Iran. That didn't work. The goal number two became the nuclear issue...The desire to get the Iranians to hand over their enriched uranium, swear that they would never use it again, and permanently end the program none of that has happened. The third goal then became control of the Strait of Hormuz, which, of course, was open before the war. What we are trying to solve now is a problem created by the war itself, and even that has not been solved. In my opinion, the whole thing is a very humiliating defeat for the United States" Watch full interview here:

ANI

49,120 次观看 • 2 个月前

I completely disagree with Norman on the Israel lobby and Zionist hegemony, but he is right on Kent and Tucker Carlson and that entire Peter Thiel clique. Ironically, he is right about them exactly because of the hegemonic power of the Zionist Israel lobby in the US, because Thiel is a core part of it and he has created this fake isolationist America First faction in the alt-media class to launder Republicans and the GOP as being actually epic and based and thereby keep their right-wing flank on board, same as is done on the Democratic side via AOCIA and Bernie Sanders. Here's a very simple question to ask Joe Kent: Do you believe the US should stop the war on Iran, stop all its sanctions on Iran, cut off all ties with the Israeli death-cult and impose a weapons embargo and sanctions on it. That's the actual anti-war, anti-imperialist position. Joe Kent does not support that. He has said repeatedly that he does not support that. He believes Iran is an evil fascist regime that is a strategic threat to the US, and the US has to destroy it. He just says destroying it must be done in a better way, more efficient way, than the Israel lobby neocons want to do it. This is like having a tactical disagreement in the Nazi high command in 1941, with Kent's view being: "I think it's best if we first siege and starve that city first before we do a head-on assault." That's not anti-war. That Kent version of that Nazi Reichsmarschall who has a slight tactical disagreement on what to do first to destroy the perceived enemy more effectively is not "anti-war". What the fuck are you talking about.

☀️👀

13,320 次观看 • 1 个月前