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🚨 THIS IS EXACTLY HOW 2008 STARTED. EVERYONE IS IGNORING IT US 30-year yield: 5.356%. Back in the zone seen before the 2008 financial crisis. Now the Fed is considering two more hikes on top of that. Government debt needs refinancing. The AI buildout needs its next round of...

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Nonzee

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41,062 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building. Since then every number moved the wrong way. Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear. The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto, they are dust compared to the bond market. The global bond market sets the price of money itself. Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves. And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once. THE UNITED STATES → 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high → 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5% → Levels last seen right before 2008 → Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month America's biggest lenders are walking away. CHINA → Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low → The lowest since September 2008 For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt. Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away from funding America and the rest of the world. The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone. JAPAN → Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending → 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996 → 30Y broke above 4% When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears. EUROPE → France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009 → Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011 → UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85% France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt worth 17% of its GDP this year. Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons. The trigger could be anything. But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan. Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once is the crack that could split the entire foundation. Watch the bond market first. Everything else is a sideshow. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.
0:10

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building. Since then every number moved the wrong way. Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear. The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto, they are dust compared to the bond market. The global bond market sets the price of money itself. Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves. And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once. THE UNITED STATES → 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high → 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5% → Levels last seen right before 2008 → Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month America's biggest lenders are walking away. CHINA → Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low → The lowest since September 2008 For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt. Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away from funding America and the rest of the world. The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone. JAPAN → Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending → 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996 → 30Y broke above 4% When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears. EUROPE → France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009 → Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011 → UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85% France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt worth 17% of its GDP this year. Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons. The trigger could be anything. But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan. Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once is the crack that could split the entire foundation. Watch the bond market first. Everything else is a sideshow. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine

323,975 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD JUST STARTED The Fed is now projected to hike another 25 bps in October. Sit with that for a second. Months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of rate cuts. Now the market is bracing for another hike. And somehow stocks are still parked near all-time highs. None of this adds up: → Oil above $100. → Diesel near record highs. → Inflation still sticky. → Rates already restrictive. And now the Fed might tighten again. So why hasn't the market cracked yet? One thing is holding it up. The AI boom. And here's where almost everyone gets it wrong. AI isn't just pushing stocks higher. It's giving the Fed room to stay aggressive. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-caps carry the entire index. As long as that holds, the Fed has zero reason to back off. That's the trap: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates high → another hike becomes possible. Now stack oil on top: $100+ crude → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room to cut. October or December, doesn't matter. The direction is what matters. Months ago it was cuts. Now it's no cuts, then a hike, then possibly another. The market survives all of this as long as AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those names finally crack while rates are climbing and inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it moves fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity vanishes → forced selling starts. And once forced selling begins, funds don't sell what they want to sell. They sell what they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything at once. That's the part nobody's prepared for. And that's exactly where the next real buying opportunity shows up. I'm not scared of the dump. I'm waiting for it. 15+ years trading, and the pattern never changes. When the liquidation hits and I see a level actually worth buying, I'll post it here like always. Turn notifications on. You'll want this chart later.
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🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD JUST STARTED The Fed is now projected to hike another 25 bps in October. Sit with that for a second. Months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of rate cuts. Now the market is bracing for another hike. And somehow stocks are still parked near all-time highs. None of this adds up: → Oil above $100. → Diesel near record highs. → Inflation still sticky. → Rates already restrictive. And now the Fed might tighten again. So why hasn't the market cracked yet? One thing is holding it up. The AI boom. And here's where almost everyone gets it wrong. AI isn't just pushing stocks higher. It's giving the Fed room to stay aggressive. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-caps carry the entire index. As long as that holds, the Fed has zero reason to back off. That's the trap: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates high → another hike becomes possible. Now stack oil on top: $100+ crude → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room to cut. October or December, doesn't matter. The direction is what matters. Months ago it was cuts. Now it's no cuts, then a hike, then possibly another. The market survives all of this as long as AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those names finally crack while rates are climbing and inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it moves fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity vanishes → forced selling starts. And once forced selling begins, funds don't sell what they want to sell. They sell what they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything at once. That's the part nobody's prepared for. And that's exactly where the next real buying opportunity shows up. I'm not scared of the dump. I'm waiting for it. 15+ years trading, and the pattern never changes. When the liquidation hits and I see a level actually worth buying, I'll post it here like always. Turn notifications on. You'll want this chart later.

Qmo

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🚨 BITCOIN’S DEATH CROSS IS BUILDING THE BOTTOM Bitcoin just printed its first death cross in three years. Most traders see a death cross and assume the worst is still ahead. Previous cycles showed the opposite. This signal appeared during the final phase of bottom formation and preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest bullish reversals. This is not Bitcoin entering a new collapse. This is Bitcoin quietly building the base for the next cycle. A bottom is not one candle. It is a process that destroys confidence before the trend reverses. We are not waiting for the bottom. We are already trading inside its formation. When the reversal is confirmed, I will post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.
0:19

🚨 BITCOIN’S DEATH CROSS IS BUILDING THE BOTTOM Bitcoin just printed its first death cross in three years. Most traders see a death cross and assume the worst is still ahead. Previous cycles showed the opposite. This signal appeared during the final phase of bottom formation and preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest bullish reversals. This is not Bitcoin entering a new collapse. This is Bitcoin quietly building the base for the next cycle. A bottom is not one candle. It is a process that destroys confidence before the trend reverses. We are not waiting for the bottom. We are already trading inside its formation. When the reversal is confirmed, I will post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

20,298 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨THIS IS INSANE This is the Dot-Com crash overlaid on today’s S&P 500. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. The market keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same rejection → Same first correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real crash Now look at the numbers. Dot-Com crash: → S&P 500 dropped around 49% → Nasdaq dropped around 78% → The collapse lasted more than 2 years Today: → AI stocks dominate the index → Valuations are near extreme levels → Retail is fully bullish → Everyone believes the rally will continue That is exactly how the last bubble ended. I’m not saying the S&P 500 must repeat the Dot-Com crash tick for tick. But when two market structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. People will say this time is different. They always do. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
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🚨THIS IS INSANE This is the Dot-Com crash overlaid on today’s S&P 500. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. The market keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same rejection → Same first correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real crash Now look at the numbers. Dot-Com crash: → S&P 500 dropped around 49% → Nasdaq dropped around 78% → The collapse lasted more than 2 years Today: → AI stocks dominate the index → Valuations are near extreme levels → Retail is fully bullish → Everyone believes the rally will continue That is exactly how the last bubble ended. I’m not saying the S&P 500 must repeat the Dot-Com crash tick for tick. But when two market structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. People will say this time is different. They always do. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

366,672 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED! FED projected to hike interest rates by 25 BPS in October. And if you think this has no impact on global markets... 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least ONE MORE HIKE this year. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 RATE CUTS for 2026. Something doesn’t add up: - Oil is above $100. - Diesel prices are near record ATH. - Inflation is still sticky. - Rates are already restrictive. And now the market thinks the Fed could tighten AGAIN. So why hasn’t the market broken yet? Because one thing is still keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI isn’t just pushing stocks higher. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO STAY AGGRESSIVE. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks continue carrying the indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates higher → another hike becomes possible. Now add: $100+ oil → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room for cuts. October or December doesn’t matter. The bigger picture does. Months ago: RATE CUTS. Now: NO CUTS → HIKE → POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive this while AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and inflation is still hot, the market loses the ONE thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins. And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. - Stocks. - Metals. - Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. I’ve been trading markets for 15+ years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level actually worth buying, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. You’ll want this chart later.
0:17

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED! FED projected to hike interest rates by 25 BPS in October. And if you think this has no impact on global markets... 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least ONE MORE HIKE this year. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 RATE CUTS for 2026. Something doesn’t add up: - Oil is above $100. - Diesel prices are near record ATH. - Inflation is still sticky. - Rates are already restrictive. And now the market thinks the Fed could tighten AGAIN. So why hasn’t the market broken yet? Because one thing is still keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI isn’t just pushing stocks higher. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO STAY AGGRESSIVE. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks continue carrying the indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates higher → another hike becomes possible. Now add: $100+ oil → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room for cuts. October or December doesn’t matter. The bigger picture does. Months ago: RATE CUTS. Now: NO CUTS → HIKE → POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive this while AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and inflation is still hot, the market loses the ONE thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins. And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. - Stocks. - Metals. - Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. I’ve been trading markets for 15+ years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level actually worth buying, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. You’ll want this chart later.

DANNY

112,315 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

DUMP BELOW $62,000 WILL BE BRUTAL. I've NEVER seen this much liquidity stacked on the long side in one zone. More than $2 BILLION in longs gets wiped if price loses $62,000. Do you understand how much that is? $2 BILLION in leveraged bets. Gone faster than it takes you to refresh the chart. Everyone who screamed "the bottom is already in" is about to get liquidated. A new bull trap forms at $79K, then flushes to $62K. That is how exit liquidity is created. My next call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on before the real selling begins.
0:13

DUMP BELOW $62,000 WILL BE BRUTAL. I've NEVER seen this much liquidity stacked on the long side in one zone. More than $2 BILLION in longs gets wiped if price loses $62,000. Do you understand how much that is? $2 BILLION in leveraged bets. Gone faster than it takes you to refresh the chart. Everyone who screamed "the bottom is already in" is about to get liquidated. A new bull trap forms at $79K, then flushes to $62K. That is how exit liquidity is created. My next call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on before the real selling begins.

Nonzee

31,170 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

DUMP BELOW $62,000 WILL BE BRUTAL. I've NEVER seen this much liquidity stacked on the long side in one zone. More than $2 BILLION in longs gets wiped if price loses $62,000. Do you understand how much that is? $2 BILLION in leveraged bets. Gone faster than it takes you to refresh the chart. Everyone who screamed "the bottom is already in" is about to get liquidated. A new bull trap forms at $79K, then flushes to $62K. That is how exit liquidity is created. My next call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on before the real selling begins.
0:18

DUMP BELOW $62,000 WILL BE BRUTAL. I've NEVER seen this much liquidity stacked on the long side in one zone. More than $2 BILLION in longs gets wiped if price loses $62,000. Do you understand how much that is? $2 BILLION in leveraged bets. Gone faster than it takes you to refresh the chart. Everyone who screamed "the bottom is already in" is about to get liquidated. A new bull trap forms at $79K, then flushes to $62K. That is how exit liquidity is created. My next call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on before the real selling begins.

Nonzee

69,843 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Yesterday, the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps for the first time in 3 years. Today, stocks are rallying like nothing happened. Something doesn't add up: 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least ONE MORE HIKE this year. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 RATE CUTS for 2026. Oil is above $100. Diesel prices just hit RECORD HIGHS. And the Fed now expects 3.7% inflation in 2026. But the market still hasn’t broken. WHY? Because one thing is keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI is not just holding the market up. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO KEEP HIKING. Massive AI spending is keeping growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks keep the indexes near the highs. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → stronger growth → sticky inflation → higher rates for longer Now add: $100+ oil → record diesel → higher costs across the economy → even less room for cuts October or December doesn’t matter. Nine months ago: 3 CUTS. Today: HIKE → ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive that while AI keeps carrying it. The problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and energy inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level worth buying, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:18

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Yesterday, the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps for the first time in 3 years. Today, stocks are rallying like nothing happened. Something doesn't add up: 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least ONE MORE HIKE this year. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 RATE CUTS for 2026. Oil is above $100. Diesel prices just hit RECORD HIGHS. And the Fed now expects 3.7% inflation in 2026. But the market still hasn’t broken. WHY? Because one thing is keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI is not just holding the market up. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO KEEP HIKING. Massive AI spending is keeping growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks keep the indexes near the highs. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → stronger growth → sticky inflation → higher rates for longer Now add: $100+ oil → record diesel → higher costs across the economy → even less room for cuts October or December doesn’t matter. Nine months ago: 3 CUTS. Today: HIKE → ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive that while AI keeps carrying it. The problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and energy inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level worth buying, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

848,295 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

🚨 ONE BITCOIN LEVEL DECIDES EVERYTHING Bitcoin is now sitting directly below the 50-week MA. Last cycle, every retest of this line ended the same way: Rejection. Then an impulse move of roughly 20%. If that happens again, Bitcoin falls straight toward $65,000. But there is one way this setup gets destroyed. Bitcoin must break $84,000 and hold above it on the weekly chart. Most take-profit orders are clustered at that exact boundary. A quick wick above it means nothing. A weekly close and a successful hold would absorb those orders and confirm the reversal. The next move is binary: Rejected below $84,000 → $65,000 Break and hold above $84,000 → reversal confirmed The next weekly close decides who gets trapped. Follow and turn notifications on before the confirmation.
0:18

🚨 ONE BITCOIN LEVEL DECIDES EVERYTHING Bitcoin is now sitting directly below the 50-week MA. Last cycle, every retest of this line ended the same way: Rejection. Then an impulse move of roughly 20%. If that happens again, Bitcoin falls straight toward $65,000. But there is one way this setup gets destroyed. Bitcoin must break $84,000 and hold above it on the weekly chart. Most take-profit orders are clustered at that exact boundary. A quick wick above it means nothing. A weekly close and a successful hold would absorb those orders and confirm the reversal. The next move is binary: Rejected below $84,000 → $65,000 Break and hold above $84,000 → reversal confirmed The next weekly close decides who gets trapped. Follow and turn notifications on before the confirmation.

Nonzee

76,041 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Trump just OFFICIALLY confirmed that the US will invade Cuba IMMEDIATELY after finishing with Iran. Should I remind you what happened to the markets when the US started strikes on Iran? When markets start pricing that reality, this will NOT be just another headline. This is a geopolitical catalyst hitting an already fragile system. Stocks will dump. Crypto will dump. Risk will get hit all at once. This is no longer just about Iran. It is about expansion. And now the pressure just multiplied. Because when one conflict is still burning and the next target is already being named, markets stop pricing de-escalation. They start pricing EXPANSION. And expansion is where the real damage starts. That one fact explains a lot. This is NOT just a Cuba story. This is about the war map getting bigger, not smaller. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: it stays at the headline level, markets panic first, then stabilize if nothing follows. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: Cuba starts getting priced as the next pressure point, and regional risk starts spreading. - WORST CASE: markets start pricing a second front after Iran, and the whole risk picture changes again. That last one is the REAL danger. Because if Iran was phase one, Cuba becomes phase two. Now connect the dots. This does NOT stay political. It hits flows. It hits freight. It hits regional risk. It hits every market that was hoping Iran was the end of the story. That is why this matters so much. Because once markets stop pricing closure and start pricing expansion, the whole framework changes. Not a dip. Not a fake panic. A REAL warning that the geopolitical map is getting bigger again. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:13

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Trump just OFFICIALLY confirmed that the US will invade Cuba IMMEDIATELY after finishing with Iran. Should I remind you what happened to the markets when the US started strikes on Iran? When markets start pricing that reality, this will NOT be just another headline. This is a geopolitical catalyst hitting an already fragile system. Stocks will dump. Crypto will dump. Risk will get hit all at once. This is no longer just about Iran. It is about expansion. And now the pressure just multiplied. Because when one conflict is still burning and the next target is already being named, markets stop pricing de-escalation. They start pricing EXPANSION. And expansion is where the real damage starts. That one fact explains a lot. This is NOT just a Cuba story. This is about the war map getting bigger, not smaller. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: it stays at the headline level, markets panic first, then stabilize if nothing follows. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: Cuba starts getting priced as the next pressure point, and regional risk starts spreading. - WORST CASE: markets start pricing a second front after Iran, and the whole risk picture changes again. That last one is the REAL danger. Because if Iran was phase one, Cuba becomes phase two. Now connect the dots. This does NOT stay political. It hits flows. It hits freight. It hits regional risk. It hits every market that was hoping Iran was the end of the story. That is why this matters so much. Because once markets stop pricing closure and start pricing expansion, the whole framework changes. Not a dip. Not a fake panic. A REAL warning that the geopolitical map is getting bigger again. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

125,288 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: THE SITUATION JUST TOOK A VERY BAD TURN The Fed is now expected to raise rates another 25 bps in October. Think about that for a moment. Just months ago, markets were expecting 2026 to be dominated by rate cuts. Now investors are preparing for another hike. Yet somehow, stocks are still hovering close to record highs. Something doesn’t quite add up: → Oil is above $100. → Diesel prices are near historical highs. → Inflation remains stubborn. → Rates are already restrictive. And now another Fed hike is back on the table. So what is keeping the market afloat? AI. But this is where most people are missing the bigger picture. The AI boom isn’t only lifting equities. It’s also giving the Fed more room to remain hawkish. Huge AI investments are keeping economic growth strong, while a small group of mega-cap companies continues to support the major indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has little incentive to ease policy. That’s the real trap: AI boom → stronger growth → persistent inflation → rates stay elevated → another hike becomes possible. Now add oil to the equation: $100+ crude → rising energy costs → additional inflation pressure → even less room for rate cuts. Whether the next move comes in October or December isn’t the main issue. The direction is. A few months ago, the expectation was cuts. Now we’re talking about no cuts, followed by a hike, and potentially more tightening afterward. The market can absorb all of this as long as AI continues carrying it. The real danger begins when AI loses momentum. If those mega-cap names finally break down while rates are rising and inflation remains elevated, the market could lose the main force absorbing all that pressure. Then things can move very quickly: AI breaks → indexes drop → liquidity dries up → forced selling begins. And when forced selling hits, funds don’t necessarily sell what they want. They sell whatever they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything. That’s the part most people aren’t prepared for. And ironically, that’s where the next major buying opportunity could appear. I’m not afraid of the selloff. I’m waiting for it. I’ve been trading for 15+ years, and the pattern remains the same. When liquidation arrives and I see a level that genuinely makes sense to buy, I’ll share it here just like I always do. Turn on notifications. You’ll want to see this chart later.
0:18

🚨 WARNING: THE SITUATION JUST TOOK A VERY BAD TURN The Fed is now expected to raise rates another 25 bps in October. Think about that for a moment. Just months ago, markets were expecting 2026 to be dominated by rate cuts. Now investors are preparing for another hike. Yet somehow, stocks are still hovering close to record highs. Something doesn’t quite add up: → Oil is above $100. → Diesel prices are near historical highs. → Inflation remains stubborn. → Rates are already restrictive. And now another Fed hike is back on the table. So what is keeping the market afloat? AI. But this is where most people are missing the bigger picture. The AI boom isn’t only lifting equities. It’s also giving the Fed more room to remain hawkish. Huge AI investments are keeping economic growth strong, while a small group of mega-cap companies continues to support the major indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has little incentive to ease policy. That’s the real trap: AI boom → stronger growth → persistent inflation → rates stay elevated → another hike becomes possible. Now add oil to the equation: $100+ crude → rising energy costs → additional inflation pressure → even less room for rate cuts. Whether the next move comes in October or December isn’t the main issue. The direction is. A few months ago, the expectation was cuts. Now we’re talking about no cuts, followed by a hike, and potentially more tightening afterward. The market can absorb all of this as long as AI continues carrying it. The real danger begins when AI loses momentum. If those mega-cap names finally break down while rates are rising and inflation remains elevated, the market could lose the main force absorbing all that pressure. Then things can move very quickly: AI breaks → indexes drop → liquidity dries up → forced selling begins. And when forced selling hits, funds don’t necessarily sell what they want. They sell whatever they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything. That’s the part most people aren’t prepared for. And ironically, that’s where the next major buying opportunity could appear. I’m not afraid of the selloff. I’m waiting for it. I’ve been trading for 15+ years, and the pattern remains the same. When liquidation arrives and I see a level that genuinely makes sense to buy, I’ll share it here just like I always do. Turn on notifications. You’ll want to see this chart later.

Bitcoin Intelligence

31,232 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

🚨 TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026 FOR MARKETS!! You MUST read this before August 24. Japan is dumping $5.5 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. China is dumping $650 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. just admitted the economy is collapsing and DOUBLED buybacks to cover the damage. If you own any assets today, you MUST know this: Japan and China are forcing capital back into their countries. And the biggest carry trade in history is now starting to unwind. This is NOT normal. For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That turned the yen into the world's cheapest funding currency. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then they poured that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. That trade is now breaking apart. Japan is facing soaring government debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital back home. And now China is adding another layer of pressure to the U.S. Treasury market. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Chinese Treasury holdings just fell to $633 BILLION, the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, China continues to build its gold reserves. → U.S. Treasuries get reduced → Gold holdings increase → Demand for U.S. debt weakens → Pressure on Treasury yields increases Japan and China were both among the major sources of the latest decline in foreign Treasury holdings. And when two of the world's biggest holders reduce their exposure at the same time... Someone else has to absorb that supply. That means higher yields are required to attract buyers. And U.S. bond yields are already surging. The 30-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. Treasury is now forced to buy back its own debt because no one else wants it. Read that again. This is the part most people are missing. Japan is pulling capital toward Japan. China is reducing Treasury exposure and increasing its strategic gold position. → Foreign Treasury demand weakens → Treasury prices fall → U.S. bond yields rise → Borrowing costs increase → Liquidity tightens This creates another feedback loop. Higher U.S. yields increase the cost of financing the enormous U.S. government debt load. Higher Japanese yields make Japanese assets more attractive. And China's continued diversification adds another structural source of pressure to the Treasury market. Pay attention. Most people won't understand why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.
0:16

🚨 TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026 FOR MARKETS!! You MUST read this before August 24. Japan is dumping $5.5 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. China is dumping $650 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. just admitted the economy is collapsing and DOUBLED buybacks to cover the damage. If you own any assets today, you MUST know this: Japan and China are forcing capital back into their countries. And the biggest carry trade in history is now starting to unwind. This is NOT normal. For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That turned the yen into the world's cheapest funding currency. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then they poured that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. That trade is now breaking apart. Japan is facing soaring government debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital back home. And now China is adding another layer of pressure to the U.S. Treasury market. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Chinese Treasury holdings just fell to $633 BILLION, the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, China continues to build its gold reserves. → U.S. Treasuries get reduced → Gold holdings increase → Demand for U.S. debt weakens → Pressure on Treasury yields increases Japan and China were both among the major sources of the latest decline in foreign Treasury holdings. And when two of the world's biggest holders reduce their exposure at the same time... Someone else has to absorb that supply. That means higher yields are required to attract buyers. And U.S. bond yields are already surging. The 30-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. Treasury is now forced to buy back its own debt because no one else wants it. Read that again. This is the part most people are missing. Japan is pulling capital toward Japan. China is reducing Treasury exposure and increasing its strategic gold position. → Foreign Treasury demand weakens → Treasury prices fall → U.S. bond yields rise → Borrowing costs increase → Liquidity tightens This creates another feedback loop. Higher U.S. yields increase the cost of financing the enormous U.S. government debt load. Higher Japanese yields make Japanese assets more attractive. And China's continued diversification adds another structural source of pressure to the Treasury market. Pay attention. Most people won't understand why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

0xNobler

658,189 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS NOT NORMAL The S&P 500 has been DUMPING for a month. And the real macro support remains far below. Because in midterm years, this pattern NEVER fails. 17 out of 17 midterm years showed the same thing: Every correction before the 200 EMA touch ended the same way. DUMP. And right now, the S&P 500 is still trading far above the level it usually needs to touch before the real bottom forms. This month-long selloff may only be the beginning. The final dump is still ahead. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the next leg down begins.
0:15

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS NOT NORMAL The S&P 500 has been DUMPING for a month. And the real macro support remains far below. Because in midterm years, this pattern NEVER fails. 17 out of 17 midterm years showed the same thing: Every correction before the 200 EMA touch ended the same way. DUMP. And right now, the S&P 500 is still trading far above the level it usually needs to touch before the real bottom forms. This month-long selloff may only be the beginning. The final dump is still ahead. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the next leg down begins.

Wimar.X

42,919 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨EVERYTHING IS GOING EXACTLY AS I TOLD YOU $SPCX is already cracking before the August unlock. Let me say it again in the simplest words possible. Right now only 4% of SpaceX is actually trading. The other 96% is locked. That is the only reason the chart looks the way it does. Insiders, employees, early funds, all sitting on shares they cannot sell. Yet. But August changes everything. After the Q2 report, the first 20% of insider stock unlocks. Look at the numbers. Only 4% of SpaceX is trading right now. In August, 20% more gets unlocked. That is 5 times more stock than what is on the market today. All hitting at once. And who do they sell to? Retail still chasing the SpaceX dream. Index funds that were forced to buy on June 13. Everyone who bought after the pump. This is the exact same playbook from crypto. Tiny float. Massive valuation. Index inclusion. Forced buyers. Then the unlock cliff. SpaceX is doing it at $2 trillion. The first cracks are already showing on the chart. Most people are still watching the pump. I'm watching August. The first exit door is about to swing wide open. And the last buyer always pays for the dream. I've been calling tops for 10 years. Shorted BTC from 111K in October. The next call is bigger. Follow and turn notifications on. I post BEFORE the headlines do.
0:14

🚨EVERYTHING IS GOING EXACTLY AS I TOLD YOU $SPCX is already cracking before the August unlock. Let me say it again in the simplest words possible. Right now only 4% of SpaceX is actually trading. The other 96% is locked. That is the only reason the chart looks the way it does. Insiders, employees, early funds, all sitting on shares they cannot sell. Yet. But August changes everything. After the Q2 report, the first 20% of insider stock unlocks. Look at the numbers. Only 4% of SpaceX is trading right now. In August, 20% more gets unlocked. That is 5 times more stock than what is on the market today. All hitting at once. And who do they sell to? Retail still chasing the SpaceX dream. Index funds that were forced to buy on June 13. Everyone who bought after the pump. This is the exact same playbook from crypto. Tiny float. Massive valuation. Index inclusion. Forced buyers. Then the unlock cliff. SpaceX is doing it at $2 trillion. The first cracks are already showing on the chart. Most people are still watching the pump. I'm watching August. The first exit door is about to swing wide open. And the last buyer always pays for the dream. I've been calling tops for 10 years. Shorted BTC from 111K in October. The next call is bigger. Follow and turn notifications on. I post BEFORE the headlines do.

winkle.

35,098 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW THE BIGGEST COLLAPSE STARTS!! The market is getting hit from EVERY side now. - FED rate hikes just got confirmed. - China, Japan, and Turkey are dumping US Treasuries. - The US-Iran peace deal is 24 hours away from COLLAPSING. When markets open on Monday, this will NOT be just a dip. Because this is no longer one isolated problem. It is a full macro stress setup hitting markets from MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. Smart money already sees it. They are NOT buying the dip. They are cutting risk, moving into cash, and getting ready for the biggest risk off move of the year. And now add the next piece. China is rejecting U.S. Nvidia chips. That's a trade war signal. Because when chips become geopolitical weapons, the market stops pricing growth. It starts pricing control, supply chain stress, and lower demand. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: markets panic first, bonds get stressed, oil pumps, and risk stabilizes if headlines calm down fast. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: the peace deal collapses, China keeps rejecting U.S. chips, and markets start pricing a real trade war plus a real war risk at the same time. - WORST CASE: diplomacy fully breaks, oil pumps HARD, yields pump, liquidity gets worse, and risk assets dump all at once. That last one is the REAL danger. Because none of this is happening in a vacuum. After months of negotiations, the U.S. and Iran still have no peace deal. No breakthrough. No stability. No real off ramp. That changes the entire risk landscape. Because when diplomacy breaks down, markets do NOT price hope. They price WAR. And once markets start pricing direct U.S.-Iran escalation, oil does NOT move slowly. It pumps HARD. Shipping gets hit. Supply chains get worse. Inflation comes back. Central banks stay trapped. That is where the real damage starts. Because when geopolitical stress hits an already fragile financial system, markets do NOT adjust slowly. They dump HARD. Capital does NOT rotate calmly. It runs to safety all at once. And risk assets? They do NOT correct. They DUMP HARD. This is how chain reactions start. Because once markets stop pricing temporary fear and start pricing prolonged instability, the whole system changes. Watch oil. Watch bonds. Watch semiconductors. Watch rates. Because once this starts accelerating, there will be no time left to react. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:14

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW THE BIGGEST COLLAPSE STARTS!! The market is getting hit from EVERY side now. - FED rate hikes just got confirmed. - China, Japan, and Turkey are dumping US Treasuries. - The US-Iran peace deal is 24 hours away from COLLAPSING. When markets open on Monday, this will NOT be just a dip. Because this is no longer one isolated problem. It is a full macro stress setup hitting markets from MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. Smart money already sees it. They are NOT buying the dip. They are cutting risk, moving into cash, and getting ready for the biggest risk off move of the year. And now add the next piece. China is rejecting U.S. Nvidia chips. That's a trade war signal. Because when chips become geopolitical weapons, the market stops pricing growth. It starts pricing control, supply chain stress, and lower demand. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. - LIGHT SHOCK: markets panic first, bonds get stressed, oil pumps, and risk stabilizes if headlines calm down fast. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: the peace deal collapses, China keeps rejecting U.S. chips, and markets start pricing a real trade war plus a real war risk at the same time. - WORST CASE: diplomacy fully breaks, oil pumps HARD, yields pump, liquidity gets worse, and risk assets dump all at once. That last one is the REAL danger. Because none of this is happening in a vacuum. After months of negotiations, the U.S. and Iran still have no peace deal. No breakthrough. No stability. No real off ramp. That changes the entire risk landscape. Because when diplomacy breaks down, markets do NOT price hope. They price WAR. And once markets start pricing direct U.S.-Iran escalation, oil does NOT move slowly. It pumps HARD. Shipping gets hit. Supply chains get worse. Inflation comes back. Central banks stay trapped. That is where the real damage starts. Because when geopolitical stress hits an already fragile financial system, markets do NOT adjust slowly. They dump HARD. Capital does NOT rotate calmly. It runs to safety all at once. And risk assets? They do NOT correct. They DUMP HARD. This is how chain reactions start. Because once markets stop pricing temporary fear and start pricing prolonged instability, the whole system changes. Watch oil. Watch bonds. Watch semiconductors. Watch rates. Because once this starts accelerating, there will be no time left to react. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

52,798 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 JAPAN WILL REVEAL ITS NEW GOVERNMENT DEBT TOTAL ON MONDAY The previous official figure, measured on March 31, was already: ¥1,343,842,600,000,000 Around $8.5 TRILLION. On August 10, Japan will reveal how much higher that number climbed by the end of June. But the debt number is only one part of the problem. Something much bigger is happening underneath Japan’s financial system. The 2-year government bond yield just reached 1.51%. Its highest level since 1995. The 10-year yield climbed toward 2.9%. And Japan’s policy rate is now 1%. Its highest level in 31 years. That means the era of nearly free money in Japan is ending. For decades, investors borrowed cheap yen. Then moved that money into: U.S. Treasuries. Stocks. Real estate. Crypto. And markets around the world. Now borrowing in yen is becoming more expensive. And Japanese bonds are finally offering meaningful returns at home. This creates one enormous risk: Japanese capital no longer needs to stay overseas. If that money starts returning to Japan, the global carry trade begins to unwind. Foreign assets get sold. Bond yields rise. Liquidity leaves risk markets. And volatility spreads everywhere. Japan is already showing signs of panic. The government spent a record ¥6.28 TRILLION defending the yen in a single day in April. Another intervention worth an estimated $95.5 BILLION may have followed in late July. Yet the yen still collapsed toward ¥164 per dollar before recovering. Intervention is buying time. It is not fixing the underlying problem. And now Japan is trapped between two opposite decisions. Raise rates to defend the yen. Or buy more bonds to stop yields from rising. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already urged the Bank of Japan to increase bond purchases when necessary. But more bond buying weakens the yen. While higher rates increase the cost of servicing Japan’s massive debt. Fix one problem. Make the other one worse. Monday will not automatically crash global markets. But it will reveal how much larger Japan’s debt burden has become while borrowing costs are hitting multi-decade highs. That is the real risk. Japan financed global markets for decades. Now it may need that money back. I have studied macro cycles for 15 years. This is one of the most important liquidity shifts to watch in 2026. Follow and turn notifications on. Most people will understand what Japan triggered only after markets begin reacting.
0:18

🚨 JAPAN WILL REVEAL ITS NEW GOVERNMENT DEBT TOTAL ON MONDAY The previous official figure, measured on March 31, was already: ¥1,343,842,600,000,000 Around $8.5 TRILLION. On August 10, Japan will reveal how much higher that number climbed by the end of June. But the debt number is only one part of the problem. Something much bigger is happening underneath Japan’s financial system. The 2-year government bond yield just reached 1.51%. Its highest level since 1995. The 10-year yield climbed toward 2.9%. And Japan’s policy rate is now 1%. Its highest level in 31 years. That means the era of nearly free money in Japan is ending. For decades, investors borrowed cheap yen. Then moved that money into: U.S. Treasuries. Stocks. Real estate. Crypto. And markets around the world. Now borrowing in yen is becoming more expensive. And Japanese bonds are finally offering meaningful returns at home. This creates one enormous risk: Japanese capital no longer needs to stay overseas. If that money starts returning to Japan, the global carry trade begins to unwind. Foreign assets get sold. Bond yields rise. Liquidity leaves risk markets. And volatility spreads everywhere. Japan is already showing signs of panic. The government spent a record ¥6.28 TRILLION defending the yen in a single day in April. Another intervention worth an estimated $95.5 BILLION may have followed in late July. Yet the yen still collapsed toward ¥164 per dollar before recovering. Intervention is buying time. It is not fixing the underlying problem. And now Japan is trapped between two opposite decisions. Raise rates to defend the yen. Or buy more bonds to stop yields from rising. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already urged the Bank of Japan to increase bond purchases when necessary. But more bond buying weakens the yen. While higher rates increase the cost of servicing Japan’s massive debt. Fix one problem. Make the other one worse. Monday will not automatically crash global markets. But it will reveal how much larger Japan’s debt burden has become while borrowing costs are hitting multi-decade highs. That is the real risk. Japan financed global markets for decades. Now it may need that money back. I have studied macro cycles for 15 years. This is one of the most important liquidity shifts to watch in 2026. Follow and turn notifications on. Most people will understand what Japan triggered only after markets begin reacting.

Leshka.eth ⛩

119,847 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨SOMETHING BAD IS COMING FOR SPACEX THIS MONDAY $SPCX is already down 30% from its ATH. And this is just the beginning. Monday could bring another major leg down. → The US–Iran peace deal is falling apart → Markets are now pricing in Fed rate hikes for 2026 → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth names as risk sentiment deteriorates They dump HARD Reminder: I've read this chart from day one. I called BTC at $16K and the top at $126K When I exit, you'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.
0:13

🚨SOMETHING BAD IS COMING FOR SPACEX THIS MONDAY $SPCX is already down 30% from its ATH. And this is just the beginning. Monday could bring another major leg down. → The US–Iran peace deal is falling apart → Markets are now pricing in Fed rate hikes for 2026 → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth names as risk sentiment deteriorates They dump HARD Reminder: I've read this chart from day one. I called BTC at $16K and the top at $126K When I exit, you'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.

winkle.

42,924 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch now
0:10

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch now

Atlas

774,784 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.
0:10

The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

722,071 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten