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This is good. The Fed is using the only blunt tool it has to slow inflation. Hiking rates. We are the victims but there’s not much else it can do other than cause a recession to slow demand.

QE Infinity

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22,335 次观看 • 2 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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30 条评论

Ajit - Stocks | Business | AI | Tech | Geopolitics 的头像

Ajit - Stocks | Business | AI | Tech | Geopolitics2 天前

Rate hikes cannot kill inflation when trillion-dollar government deficits keep pumping liquidity right back into the system.

Sarah Stalder 的头像

Sarah Stalder2 天前

I’m a server and it’s bleak. I’m taking a few weeks for surgery after 4 years trying to get here. Hoping to see better news on the other side.

QE Infinity 的头像

QE Infinity2 天前

🙏

shangtr0n 🟦 的头像

shangtr0n 🟦2 天前

this guy is full of shit. the Fed doesn't set rates for auto loans, mortgages, etc. as he falsely implies in the video. he's also wrong that inflation is being driven solely, or even primarily, by the War in Iran. Warsh explained that in his remarks.

QE Infinity 的头像

QE Infinity2 天前

Yes it does because it affects the 10 year bond which sets rates.

shangtr0n 🟦 的头像

shangtr0n 🟦2 天前

this time the Fed's rate increase affected the 10 year bond by bringing its yield DOWN!

QE Infinity 的头像

QE Infinity2 天前

And sometimes it’s the opposite

shangtr0n 🟦 的头像

shangtr0n 🟦2 天前

right. the overnight rate is one of many factors market participants use in determining the yields they demand on treasuries. so it has an impact, not always in the same direction. flatly wrong for him to suggest the Fed SETS those rates, or a rate hike always increases them.

Fibonacci Investing⚡️ 的头像

Fibonacci Investing⚡️2 天前

Literally this happens every time. We overdo it and people flock to bonds at the end.

Kristina Revay 的头像

Kristina Revay2 天前

Fuel shortages should cool the economy…

QE Infinity 的头像

QE Infinity2 天前

Definitely. It’ll stop it

Cha Shava 的头像

Cha Shava2 天前

Should've hiked more of that is the intended outcome

Nicolas Corredor 的头像

Nicolas Corredor2 天前

Although supply shocks do affect prices, isn’t the real inflation problem excessive, deficit-financed government spending? What is your view on that variable? If inflation can be reduced by cutting government spending, why not do it?

Rattofix 的头像

Rattofix2 天前

Basterebbe far scendere wall street del 25% e mantenere quei livelli per 6 mesi. Ma per farlo, con questi livelli di fomo, serve qualcosa di forte e contrario. Alla fine la recessione è la più facile e dolorosa ai meno abbienti...😢

Bret Taylor 的头像

Bret Taylor2 天前

Consequences of electing an idiot

Emiliano Zapata Jr ❇️™️ 的头像

Emiliano Zapata Jr ❇️™️2 天前

Austerity for the people. Thank you crony capitalism.

guiliana gibraldi 的头像

guiliana gibraldi2 天前

We are in a recession now dipshit. Actually, the real numbers look more like depression era.

DK 的头像

DK2 天前

Yes. Which is why I am confused how you constantly advocate for rate increases? Recession or bust at this point.

Greg Lambis 的头像

Greg Lambis2 天前

Come one guy. Tell them what would have happened if they lowered rates and the real situation we're in ... Lowering the rate would have cause an inflationary spiral. We're already fucked

High Impact Information 的头像

High Impact Information2 天前

Raising rates is meant to address a overheating economy by raising the cost of capital Rate hike is addressing the wrong problem

Stumped 的头像

Stumped2 天前

They could lower their balance sheet...

Max Wellian 的头像

Max Wellian2 天前

That's also never going to happen.

Gill 的头像

Gill2 天前

Trump world ..

Rob Leff 的头像

Rob Leff2 天前

Doesn’t always work. You can get stagflation!!!

Quant Monkey 的头像

Quant Monkey2 天前

The worst supply shock ever. Nothing comes close.

Graham Sanders 的头像

Graham Sanders2 天前

Why don’t any of these commentators focus on the biggest supply problem? The ever expanding Money Supply? Given the woes that the gent cites, forclosures, etc., who is still borrowing all the money, which creates the deposits, which is money supply, which is causing the excessive creation? All this nonsense about tighter money not producing another barrel of oil or opening the Hormuz Straight? Yes, the energy thing is boosting inflaation and has been for the last six months. But inflation has been running above the Fed’s target for almost SIX YEARS. The only tool the Fed really has is interest rate policy. Set rates at a level where folks decide to curtail borrowing. And with it deposits and money supply growth. And that’s what Warsh and Co plan to do. Wednesday was just the beginning. Expect another 50 beeps next month. This is the problem ⬇️

Red web 的头像

Red web2 天前

Inflation in housing and auto price didn’t come from this war.

ElongatedMuskratSavesTheWorld 🇺🇸🐭🦖 的头像

ElongatedMuskratSavesTheWorld 🇺🇸🐭🦖2 天前

Yes, higher rates increase borrowing costs, but they also tend to drive down the stock market and reduce the the actual price of things, like houses overtime and America is in desperate need of price reductions across-the-board.

Takegi Takashawee 的头像

Takegi Takashawee2 天前

@JDXReport You should do a bit more editing to your ChatGPT script so you don’t sound just like it. This is live read AI slop

Max Wellian 的头像

Max Wellian2 天前

Agree w/ his premise, but 1/4 FFR over night bank rate is not going to change a thing even if it wasn't supply driven. You see it's impact didn't even last a day. The Feds real blunt tool would be selling their bond holdings. That would change bond rates enough to matter.

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The FED can not control inflation but they can create it. The cost of a mortgage is not affordable because of the Fed’s intervention on rates. Home prices have not come down, only activity dropped to 15 year lows while mortgage rates tripled. Supply & demand control prices. Let the market place dictate prices. The FED prints dollars to bail out corporations, third world countries and to fund wars but then punishes the American people and small businesses with high rates. End the FED.

The FED can not control inflation but they can create it. The cost of a mortgage is not affordable because of the Fed’s intervention on rates. Home prices have not come down, only activity dropped to 15 year lows while mortgage rates tripled. Supply & demand control prices. Let the market place dictate prices. The FED prints dollars to bail out corporations, third world countries and to fund wars but then punishes the American people and small businesses with high rates. End the FED.

Grant Cardone

57,797 次观看 • 1 年前

Everyone wants the Fed to cut rates, but inflation is still north of 3%. That’s a hidden tax on every American. If we push the Fed to lower rates while inflation is rising, we risk a policy disaster. The Fed must stay independent—that’s why global investors trust America. Politicians bashing the Fed is nothing new, but it’s dangerous when it shapes policy.

Everyone wants the Fed to cut rates, but inflation is still north of 3%. That’s a hidden tax on every American. If we push the Fed to lower rates while inflation is rising, we risk a policy disaster. The Fed must stay independent—that’s why global investors trust America. Politicians bashing the Fed is nothing new, but it’s dangerous when it shapes policy.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

124,114 次观看 • 9 个月前

The Fed is trying to slow the economy, hoping that fewer jobs & lower wages will curb inflation as a side effect. But since I released this video, inflation has slowed — and more analysts admit corporate greed is largely to blame for inflation. Why must the Fed punish workers?

The Fed is trying to slow the economy, hoping that fewer jobs & lower wages will curb inflation as a side effect. But since I released this video, inflation has slowed — and more analysts admit corporate greed is largely to blame for inflation. Why must the Fed punish workers?

Robert Reich

64,344 次观看 • 3 年前

Oil at $100 is a tax on the economy. But the Fed must not fall into the trap that growth causes inflation. The way to get out of the inflation problem is to GROW the economy. Other than oil, the economy is doing so well. We are primed for a BOOM! 🇺🇸

Oil at $100 is a tax on the economy. But the Fed must not fall into the trap that growth causes inflation. The way to get out of the inflation problem is to GROW the economy. Other than oil, the economy is doing so well. We are primed for a BOOM! 🇺🇸

Stephen Moore

71,786 次观看 • 5 天前

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 次观看 • 3 个月前

Everyone is bracing for oil to be inflationary. History says the opposite. An oil shock is recessionary. A spike at the pump hits prices right away, but with a weak labor market nobody can absorb an extra 100 or 150 dollars a month. So they pull spending from everywhere else, and businesses hit with higher diesel do the same. That is demand destruction. Spending falls, the price of everything other than oil drops, and eventually oil falls too. So the shock is a short inflation spike that reverses almost immediately. The real outcome is not inflation. It is recession. The danger is a central bank hiking into the spike because it looks inflationary, then being forced to reverse. Trichet's ECB did exactly that in 2008.

Everyone is bracing for oil to be inflationary. History says the opposite. An oil shock is recessionary. A spike at the pump hits prices right away, but with a weak labor market nobody can absorb an extra 100 or 150 dollars a month. So they pull spending from everywhere else, and businesses hit with higher diesel do the same. That is demand destruction. Spending falls, the price of everything other than oil drops, and eventually oil falls too. So the shock is a short inflation spike that reverses almost immediately. The real outcome is not inflation. It is recession. The danger is a central bank hiking into the spike because it looks inflationary, then being forced to reverse. Trichet's ECB did exactly that in 2008.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,449 次观看 • 1 个月前

Kevin Warsh just ended his first ever FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His message to markets: "I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next." Here is what he said: 1. Inflation is still way above the Fed's 2% target and prices are too high for most people 2. "We will fix five years of misses on inflation", he is directly saying the previous Fed failed 3. The Fed will no longer tell you in advance what it plans to do with interest rates 4. He watches stock market prices more than anything else when making decisions 5. Interest rates are hurting the housing market but are not slowing down financial markets 6. All 19 members at the table agreed not to raise rates today 7. The 2% inflation target is not changing 8. He refused to say whether bond yields rising after today's decision concerns him 9. He refused to say whether he has spoken to Trump since becoming Fed chair Under Powell, the Fed always told markets what was coming next. Under Warsh, that is gone.

Kevin Warsh just ended his first ever FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His message to markets: "I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next." Here is what he said: 1. Inflation is still way above the Fed's 2% target and prices are too high for most people 2. "We will fix five years of misses on inflation", he is directly saying the previous Fed failed 3. The Fed will no longer tell you in advance what it plans to do with interest rates 4. He watches stock market prices more than anything else when making decisions 5. Interest rates are hurting the housing market but are not slowing down financial markets 6. All 19 members at the table agreed not to raise rates today 7. The 2% inflation target is not changing 8. He refused to say whether bond yields rising after today's decision concerns him 9. He refused to say whether he has spoken to Trump since becoming Fed chair Under Powell, the Fed always told markets what was coming next. Under Warsh, that is gone.

Bull Theory

1,037,917 次观看 • 3 个月前

.Chamath Palihapitiya: “Why does the Fed not cut? Because at this point, not cutting is the only thing that you can do to slow the Trump administration down going into the midterms — if you wanted to politicize the job.”

.Chamath Palihapitiya: “Why does the Fed not cut? Because at this point, not cutting is the only thing that you can do to slow the Trump administration down going into the midterms — if you wanted to politicize the job.”

Chief Nerd

476,132 次观看 • 1 年前

Interesting comments by Powell: — most likely economic scenarios for 2023 are either slow growth (<1%) or recession. He says these are about equally likely. — he recognizes that we have the worst inflation in 40 years and says this is what is necessary to get inflation down. — he specifically calls out the hot labor market, which he wants to cool off, thereby cooling wages. “This is the only thing we know how to do.”

Interesting comments by Powell: — most likely economic scenarios for 2023 are either slow growth (<1%) or recession. He says these are about equally likely. — he recognizes that we have the worst inflation in 40 years and says this is what is necessary to get inflation down. — he specifically calls out the hot labor market, which he wants to cool off, thereby cooling wages. “This is the only thing we know how to do.”

David Sacks

467,658 次观看 • 3 年前

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,534 次观看 • 13 天前

"Why not do it now," says Fmr. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard of the central bank hiking interest rates. "You don't want to wait until the economy is suffering."

"Why not do it now," says Fmr. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard of the central bank hiking interest rates. "You don't want to wait until the economy is suffering."

Squawk Box

76,184 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.

CryptoGoos

42,378 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 BOOM! President Trump is hereby demanding the Federal Reserve STOP the ridiculous practice of raising interest rates on good economic numbers, which blocks growth "We would really like to see interest rates come down. You know, in the old days with interest rates, many of you are too young to know this, but when we announced good numbers, interest rates would go down!" "And the theory was because the asset value became so good, it became so prime." "But now when we announce good numbers, which we're doing all the time, they keep driving the interest rates up because they're so afraid of inflation!" "And they shouldn't be. They should allow interest rates to go down." "When you announce good numbers, you shouldn't drive them up. They keep thinking that we'll drive them up to stop inflation because success and growth does not cause inflation. Other things cause inflation." He nailed it!

🚨 BOOM! President Trump is hereby demanding the Federal Reserve STOP the ridiculous practice of raising interest rates on good economic numbers, which blocks growth "We would really like to see interest rates come down. You know, in the old days with interest rates, many of you are too young to know this, but when we announced good numbers, interest rates would go down!" "And the theory was because the asset value became so good, it became so prime." "But now when we announce good numbers, which we're doing all the time, they keep driving the interest rates up because they're so afraid of inflation!" "And they shouldn't be. They should allow interest rates to go down." "When you announce good numbers, you shouldn't drive them up. They keep thinking that we'll drive them up to stop inflation because success and growth does not cause inflation. Other things cause inflation." He nailed it!

Eric Daugherty

49,852 次观看 • 1 个月前

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,154 次观看 • 2 个月前

The Fed can talk tough all it wants. The dots can suggest another hike. But Walmart just told you what is actually happening in the real economy. Price cuts. Not a promotion. A signal. Weak payrolls. Household employment plunging. Labor force shrinking. Savings gone. Gas still eating paychecks. This is not inflation cooling into a soft landing. This is demand destruction. The tips market never bought the inflation story. Breakevens are crashing. The forward curve is already pricing what the Fed has not admitted yet: maybe one more hike, then reality wins. The lesson: watch what consumers and markets are actually doing, not what officials are saying they might do.

The Fed can talk tough all it wants. The dots can suggest another hike. But Walmart just told you what is actually happening in the real economy. Price cuts. Not a promotion. A signal. Weak payrolls. Household employment plunging. Labor force shrinking. Savings gone. Gas still eating paychecks. This is not inflation cooling into a soft landing. This is demand destruction. The tips market never bought the inflation story. Breakevens are crashing. The forward curve is already pricing what the Fed has not admitted yet: maybe one more hike, then reality wins. The lesson: watch what consumers and markets are actually doing, not what officials are saying they might do.

Jeffrey P. Snider

23,516 次观看 • 2 个月前