🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.”... Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.show more

ngl the part that gets me is nobody technically lied they just all agreed to count the same dollar four times and call it growtth 💀

bro really explained circular revenue AND snuck in a 'you'll regret not following me' like its a hostage note

Maybe more people would take you serious if you didn’t end every post with the “Been calling market bottoms and tops for the last 15 years” bullshit. Even if it’s true, please stop! Let your calls speak for themselves.

AI spending is just three companies passing the same dollar around until it looks like revenue. Circular economics works great right up until the music stops.

Probably, but the bubble can continue for much longer tome than anticipated. Done see a leg down and the S&P at 9000 for example. I don’t think we are yet in the « euphoric » stage yet…

A post made by someone who has apparently never used Ai! I use it every day now in my engineering work. Im leveraging my time by a factor of ten at least. More and more businesses will be doing this.

You make it sound like Comoany A and Comoany B are passing the same money back and forth. You are leaving out the revenue that these companies bring in. These AI companies have Billions in revenue from thousands of customers. The fact that companies purchase services from their investing companies is not new. The same why if I own stock in Home Depot then I would shop there instead of at a competitor.

So you are calling top here for the SPY? 👀

Follow the cash, not the headlines.

Open source AI on home computers particularly Apple M5 and the new Microsoft GPUter and equivalent from AMD and NVIDIA require zero tokens and are extremely powerful. It needs to be consumerized and AAPL has a track record of consumerizing technology that requires geeks to run it (e.g. Unix, mp3 players et al). I have no knowledge that they are doing that, but it would make sense if they did. Meta is also in a position to do it, possibly with the glasses (and voice) as the UI. If people start using their own or LOCO (community owned) LLMs it will be difficult for the frontier token models (hyperscaler based) or stand alone GPU-as-a-Service companies to make their economics add up. There is also new generations of thinking like LDMs and @ylecun thinking and new company alongside folks like with their causal AI that can disrupt these ecosystems, on top of the risks cited above. My opinion is that somebody will also package a whole AI HomeOS stack where you don’t have to know AI to use AI. It will replace the plethora of home based retail SaaS platforms but maybe not the devices like MyQ and many more. They all operate in silos which is not the best architecture. The customer needs to be at the center of this, not the SaaS platform!! @tonypizi @TonySchiavo @dray10th @nchinai @andrewrsorkin @Meta @Apple

Capital loop in action.

The circular revenue loop is the part that should scare equity bulls more than crypto holders. If 39% of the S&P leans on AI capex that partly funds itself, that concentration risk is real. Ironically it makes BTC's "boring" 63K range look like the calmer seat in the room.

😎

The circular spending argument is worth discussing, but it's not the same as fake demand. The real question is whether AI companies eventually generate enough external revenue to justify the infrastructure spending. If they do, today's investments look visionary. If they don't, investors may discover growth was far more dependent on capital than customers.

I trust Ray Dalio and his beliefs better to stay away from the bubble!

And what happens to crypto while all that money vanishes?

I agree with your take... but you can't just sit on the sideline all the time waiting... you have to shorten your moves and learn to hedge

The playbook is easy. It’s the same as the bank stuff. “Too big to fail”

Yes

Show everyone who the Boss is

Everybody already knows that is a bubble but are still betting on AI cause knows Trump wont let market drop, he will keep pumping on fake news everytime it crash bit. And algos will buy the dips everytime. So i think the only thing that can initiate the doom is a bad mid term

Isn’t that what the entire economy is though? I mean think about it… they’re exchanging money for goods and services..

The real question isn’t whether AI demand is real. It’s how much of today’s growth is new external demand vs internal ecosystem recycling inside hyperscalers.

the 'turn notifications on or youll regret it' closer is doing so much heavy lifting rn bro is selling urgency harder than the bubble hes describing

Calling bullshit on your claim especially cloud services purchased by OpenAI or Anthropic, they can legitimately appear as revenue for MSFT or Google if the services are actually delivered and paid for, that revenue is generally not considered fictitious, so no it's not accurate.

You like to short don’t you?

🤯👀

Lmao bro 7500 ain’t it lmaoooo also the AI bubble is twice the size of the dot com bubble we ain’t even close yet homie

Exactly 💯

Interesting take, but I think the AI hype still has a bit more room to run before reality catches up

Where does the move go to that’s safe ?

If OpenAi and Anthropic can achieve good revenue growth, would this still concern you?

Interesting, I had a feeling that the frontier might go to zero

my buddy works in cloud partnerships and yeah - they literally call these "strategic co-investment deals" internally. same money, round trip, everyone books revenue. its not even hidden