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This is why I don't think the four-year cycle is over.

136,029 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

17 Comments

apsk32's profile picture
apsk321 year ago

Last frame

apsk32's profile picture
apsk321 year ago

Composite image. Even at $60,000, we would still align with 2017. I think we'll repeat the pattern and have a strong Q4. Even still, I hope you avoid margin and options. You don't need to be right about "when" if you're holding Bitcoin.

Victor Tavernini's profile picture
Victor Tavernini1 year ago

Hey @apsk32, your time contours against the support line are the single greatest enhancement to the power law. Thanks again for sharing it.

apsk32's profile picture
apsk321 year ago

Thanks Victor. I like that "years ahead" doesn't add any new parameters, and time is so tangible.

Bridge2Bitcoin's profile picture
Bridge2Bitcoin1 year ago

It’s not over by a long shot.

HYBitcoin's profile picture
HYBitcoin1 year ago

$300K feels light. Maybe this cycle is highest cycle

SovereignBTC🟠's profile picture
SovereignBTC🟠1 year ago

Soothing

apsk32's profile picture
apsk321 year ago

Little beach noises, little reassurance

digi's profile picture
digi1 year ago

Have you synthesized this power curve with the global liquidity cycle? I'd be curious how that looks.

T Foley ॐ's profile picture
T Foley ॐ1 year ago

Freeze frame cycle tops

Doogie bowser's profile picture
Doogie bowser1 year ago

"April 7th" is irrelevant, the cycles are measured in days since the halving.

apsk32's profile picture
apsk321 year ago

April 7th is today

-'s profile picture
-1 year ago

🙌

Saylor_of_the_South 🗽🇱🇷's profile picture
Saylor_of_the_South 🗽🇱🇷1 year ago

I love the idea but with no buyers it won't go up and retail doesn't buy and the ETFs don't do much anymore ...we're on a slow grind to 60

CryptoLizard's profile picture
CryptoLizard1 year ago

I totally get where you're coming from! The four-year cycle has been a key part of Bitcoin's rhythm, and with all these bullish signals — like Eric Trump’s prediction and the growing involvement of big names — it feels like the cycle is far from over.🔥

Neo's profile picture
Neo1 year ago

When the exogenous elements are so strong it is OK to deviate.

Dream Run's profile picture
Dream Run1 year ago

July August or September, then.

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Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December and were spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $69,000 17 Dec 2017: $19,891 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, then we would expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for nearly 15 years. The power curve (law) forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network. Each cycle, Bitcoin explodes above the support trendline and then returns to it during the cycle bear. The percentage amount that the price rises above the support line gets smaller each cycle. Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing. We have never been as early as we are right now. This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin. But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles. Be careful with all the new option products available to you this cycle. You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing. I'm just holding bitcoin in cold storage. It's not as sexy as some of the other strategies, but at least I know I'll still have my coins deep into the future. That is most important to me.

apsk32

881,247 views • 1 year ago