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This trader has won 148 predictions in a row on Polymarket He only bets on No and always win Here's the cold math behind his $275k profit 148 closed positions. Every single one: Won His secret? He doesn't predict the future The math that makes this work: EV =...

198,509 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Two years ago one guy won $579K on sports betting and wrote a detailed thread about how he did it. His model was completely public: formulas entry logic match selection criteria. Hundreds of people copied the approach and started trading using his system. 3 months later the edge completely disappeared bookmakers adapted lines started moving faster windows closed. Everyone who copied lost their deposits. He himself hasn't shown his profile to anyone since and doesn't write publicly about his bets. This is a standard story in the world of sports betting: any advantage dies the moment the crowd finds out about it. Yesterday I found a wallet that contradicts everything I know about this market. > $4M+ in pure profit in 14 days. This wallet doesn't know how to lose: The profile is completely public every position every entry every exit visible to anyone with internet. He absolutely doesn't care that you're watching. The first thing that catches your eye when you open the stats the numbers just don't match reality. The most profitable sports models in the world the ones that feed professional syndicates in Vegas give 54-57% accuracy. That's the ceiling. That's the edge. That's enough to live off betting for decades. > This wallet has 1207 closed positions in two weeks of trading. I scrolled through every one. Won. Won. Won. Won. Won. Scroll further. Won. Won. Won. Won. All the way to the end of the list. > Zero losses. Not 90%. Not 99%. Zero. This is not betting in the sense we understand the word betting by definition assumes you sometimes lose. Then what am I even looking at? I open his largest closed trade to understand the scale. > Bills vs. Jaguars NFL playoff final. > Entry: $1.13M. Exit: $2.45M+. > Pure profit of $1.32M+ from one football game. And the most interesting part this wasn't even a simple bet on the winner where you just need to guess who wins. This was point spread: Bills -3.5. To take the money he needed Bills to not just win but win by at least four points. Not guess the match outcome guess by exactly what margin the game ends. And he bet over a million dollars on it. I scroll through the rest of the closed positions and see the same pattern. > Packers vs. Bears invested $781K took $1.79M+ pure profit over a million. > Stade Rennais FC 1901 invested $602K took $1.56M+ pure profit $964K. > Patriots spread -3.5 invested $600K took $1.27M+ pure profit $675K. > Rams spread -3.5 invested $613K took $1.25M pure profit $641K. Every position hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line. Every one closed in profit. I start looking for any pattern in his match selection trying to understand the logic. > NFL American football. > NBA basketball. > NHL hockey. > Premier League English football. > Bundesliga German football. > La Liga Spanish football. > Ligue 1 French football. > Serie A Italian football. He doesn't focus on one league and doesn't specialize in one sport. This completely kills the insider information theory it's physically impossible to have reliable sources simultaneously in all professional leagues in the world. I look at the timing of his entries when exactly he opens positions relative to match start. > Average entry price in his positions: 35-50 cents per share. > Price of the same positions at match start: 70-85 cents. He consistently enters when the price is still low hours sometimes a day before the main mass of players starts loading money in the same direction. Two possible explanations. 1. He somehow knows match results in advance. 2. He sees something in publicly available data that hundreds of thousands of other people looking at the same matches don't see. I can't think of a third option. > The fattest win in the wallet's history: $1.32M+ pure profit from one position. That's more than most people will earn in their entire lives. He did it in three hours while a football game was on. I look at current open positions he didn't stop and didn't withdraw the money. > Right now he has $4.2 million in active bets. And all of them are already in profit even before closing. > Spread: Indiana -7.5 entered at 50 cents now price 100 cents profit +100%. > Sharks vs. Lightning entered at 73 cents now price 100 cents profit +37%. > Wild vs. Maple Leafs entered at 50 cents now price 100 cents profit +100%. > Tottenham win entered at 35 cents now price 100 cents profit +185%. He didn't just not stop he's accelerating and increasing position size every day. > 64 thousand people are already watching this profile right now. People are trying to copy his trades in real time. They can't keep up. By the time a new position appears in the public profile the price is already completely different because his entry itself moves the market. He doesn't hide and doesn't conceal trades because speed is his protection from copying.

Blaze

251,298 views • 5 months ago

My dad called me at 7 AM on a Sunday. I need you to look at something. Do not tell your mother. I thought he was sick. He sent me a screenshot. A Claude terminal. Live Polymarket odds. Green numbers. +$14,200. He is 56. Retired electrician. Calls WiFi the internet box. Dad what the fuck is this? I found an article about connecting Claude to Polymarket. Told Claude to install it. One prompt. Four commands. 45 tools running on his old Dell laptop. Live orderbooks. Volume spikes. Closing deadlines. All inside Claude. He does not know what MCP means. Does not care. Every morning at 5 AM. Before mom wakes up. Reading glasses and black coffee. He asks Claude: What is closing today with mispriced odds? Claude cross-references markets in one call. Spots where the price disagrees with the news. He does not out-execute bots. He out-waits them. Quarter Kelly. $500 from his fishing fund. Last 60 days: 680 trades 90.2% win rate +$14,200 Best trade: Claude alert pinged him during Sunday football. Volume spike on a geopolitics market. Entry $0.09. Resolved $1.00. +$2,800. Mom thought he was checking the score. He was not checking the score. Last week he booked her a cruise. Said he had been saving since January. He has not saved anything since January. When are you telling her? When I hit $25K. I am buying the lake house. Dad you do not even know what an API is. I do not need to. The machine knows. He still calls Claude the machine. The machine prints money. I built the entire framework he used: Claude MCP setup Polymarket mispricing detection Quarter Kelly position sizing Volume spike alerts Cron-based market scanning The system runs 24/7. Finds mispriced odds before the crowd adjusts. Executes before the edge compresses. No emotions. No FOMO. Just math. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the mispricing system this week. Start with $500. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

18,067 views • 22 days ago