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This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$130,992 on Polymarket 29,721 predictions in 132 days with a 50% win rate How is this account bringing in about $992 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It focuses on short crypto “Up / Down” markets, averaging... roughly 9 trades per hour 2. Instead of relying on one entry, the bot appears to build its position gradually as the probabilities change throughout each window 3. It can take exposure on one outcome first, then wait for a favorable move before adding the opposite side and locking part of the position into a hedge This trader’s Polymarket account: nagi777 Most profitable trades: $54 → $1,165 (+$1,111 +2,077.2%) $28 → $1,127 (+$1,100 +3,961.7%) $234 → $1,311 (+$1,077 +459.8%) A 50% win rate is enough for this system because the result depends on how each position is constructed and modified over time, not simply on finishing more markets on the winning sideshow more

Daniro

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53,229 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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9 Comments

midcurvXBT1 month ago

130992$ / 29721 trades = 4,41$ par trade. Aux mises que tu cites (28-234$), ça fait 2 à 16% de rendement par trade, 29721 fois d’affilée. Ça n’existe pas. À taille de market maker c’est 0,5-0,9% = la moitié du spread. Il encaisse le spread. Il ne prédit rien.

Rickysfundamentals1 month ago

You are from a restricted region where using polymarket is illegal and promoting or soliciting illegal gambling is also illegal. Both may give you fines or imprisonment. You have 24 hours to erase every post about polymarket or i am reporting you to your local authoritys and your local financial/regulatory agency or group. Respectfully

Adel Bucetta1 month ago

the honest answer is that most of the 'logic' behind quant bots is just applying existing patterns to new data. this one's success is more about identifying a gap in the market rather than true innovation

Predict3651 month ago

50% win rate at 9–20 trades/hour is inventory management. Treat these threads as research on flow, not as a bot you should paste-deploy with size.

Nguyenduc1 month ago

Nhưng đó là họ bạn thì sao ?

Grace Hall1 month ago

That's insane, 50% win rate is huge

sAjjAd BuTT ❤1 month ago

App name?

SEO Mastery1 month ago

50% win rate making that much is wild

Alpha-Intelligence-X Cora Core1 month ago

Schön lauter bunte Farben und Dinge 🤣🤭

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VALIX

30,078 views • 4 months ago

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$222,374 Its bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets through a hybrid of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for directional edge through its own fair probability It gets data on the underlying asset from external sources and compares it with the price on Polymarket Its model includes momentum, acceleration, volatility, order-flow imbalance, and time to resolution If it sees an edge, it starts building a position and increases it while the signal remains active 2. When the signal changes, it hedges the position with the opposite outcome If the price movement reverses, the algorithm starts buying the other side This reduces net exposure while also using new price moves to accumulate the second side If it can buy cheap enough, part of the inventory turns into a complete set where Up + Down costs less than $1 3. It keeps a large directional residual In two-sided markets, the median size of the smaller side is only around 36% of the larger side The hedge covers only part of the position, while the main remainder continues working in the direction of its model’s signal His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Stats: > Trades / active hour: 132.3 > Average trade: $60.02 > Win Rate: 55% This guy’s main edge is built on a combination of two mechanics: it tries to identify the stronger outcome before the market, and when the signal changes, it turns part of the position into a hedge or a cheap complete set

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$222,374 Its bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets through a hybrid of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for directional edge through its own fair probability It gets data on the underlying asset from external sources and compares it with the price on Polymarket Its model includes momentum, acceleration, volatility, order-flow imbalance, and time to resolution If it sees an edge, it starts building a position and increases it while the signal remains active 2. When the signal changes, it hedges the position with the opposite outcome If the price movement reverses, the algorithm starts buying the other side This reduces net exposure while also using new price moves to accumulate the second side If it can buy cheap enough, part of the inventory turns into a complete set where Up + Down costs less than $1 3. It keeps a large directional residual In two-sided markets, the median size of the smaller side is only around 36% of the larger side The hedge covers only part of the position, while the main remainder continues working in the direction of its model’s signal His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Stats: > Trades / active hour: 132.3 > Average trade: $60.02 > Win Rate: 55% This guy’s main edge is built on a combination of two mechanics: it tries to identify the stronger outcome before the market, and when the signal changes, it turns part of the position into a hedge or a cheap complete set

VALIX

12,905 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

371,365 views • 1 month ago