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🤡 This war, Volodya, will last for maybe three or four days at most! Exactly four months ago, Lukashenko — sitting on a bench with Putin — advised Ukraine to run and surrender immediately. Otherwise, he said, “in a month, a month and a half, two months, there won’t...

146,406 次观看 • 8 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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KASPAROV: Everything went contrary to Putin's expectations. Kyiv was not captured in 3 days, nor even in 3 years. Moreover, Ukraine demonstrated ability to act as a free state, to very dynamically develop its defense industry. Many pro-war Russian bloggers now admit that Ukraine is more dynamic in innovation because its society is dynamic. Russian system is very clumsy, sluggish, and corrupt. You have to wait a long time for anyone to approve anything. Ukraine, in this drone war, reacts to everything very quickly. That's advantage of the free world, a very important aspect. Ukraine held out and has now taken initiative because different mechanisms work there: the market, democracy, freedom. While in Russia, everything is still subordinated to bureaucracy. Everything is centralized, and they simply cannot keep up. Ukraine is inflicting serious losses. Yes, there are pockets of dissatisfaction in Russia, but that doesn't mean Putin will end the war. It seems to me there was a period about two months ago, in May and June, when there was hesitation in the Kremlin, but that's over. Now it's become clear. You can see it in Putin's response to Tokayev and shift in propaganda that things have hardened. But I don't think Putin has infinite resources. Looking at the dynamics, the economy, and finances, I believe it will be at most a year. I think Putin is also aware of this, but it means that an unprecedented attempt at escalation will now be made. First of all, Putin is counting on the political map of Europe changing in 2027. Elections all over Europe, especially in France. If we imagine that France will have a president friendly to Putin, which is not at all unlikely, it will sharply change the balance. In Germany, there will be elections in many federal states, and pro-Putin Alternative for Germany party is growing in strength there. That's why it seems to me that Putin may now decide on an escalation involving crossing a NATO border. Not to occupy Latvia or Estonia, that's impossible, but to show that NATO doesn't work. As long as Trump is in America, it's hard to imagine that America will fight. That means that even short cross-border clashes will give Putin the opportunity to declare that NATO no longer exists. Putin cannot win the war in Ukraine. I think even he understands that. But he needs some kind of political victory. Unfortunately, I believe the risk of such an attack involving drones, missiles, or small groups is growing. That incident with the missile in Poland was a test. Drones fly in regularly, missiles and ships have crossed maritime border. In my opinion, crossing NATO land border is essentially a matter of time. Putin will certainly decide to do it.

Kate from Kharkiv

39,265 次观看 • 12 天前