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"This whole story and narrative that Google has already won is going to be harder to tell when the best model is actually an OpenAI model," D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says. He also says that OpenAI will launch that "state-of-the-art" model "over the next few days, weeks."

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Sam Altman: "if we can make an AI system that is materially better than all of OpenAI at doing AI research, that does feel like an important discontinuity... the model is going to get so good so fast... plan for the model to get rapidly smarter"
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138,250 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The entire AI industry is racing to build the smartest model. Satya Nadella just admitted that is not where the money is. The model is not the product. The harness is. That is the exact line. And it changes what Microsoft is actually competing on. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta every frontier lab is pouring hundreds of billions into training compute, chasing the next capability jump. Each betting that raw model intelligence is the moat. Microsoft is doing the opposite. It is building the harness the orchestration layer that sits above the model, connecting it to tools, data, permissions, sub-agents, and enterprise workflows. And it is letting OpenAI, Anthropic, and MAI compete to plug into it. "You need the model. But the model is not the product. The harness is." So do the math on what a harness actually does. A raw model dropped into an enterprise answers questions. That is a chatbot. A harness turns that same model into an agent that reads the SharePoint, edits the ERP entry, pulls the GitHub PR, updates Salesforce, and files the Excel report with the right permissions, the right audit trail, and the right sub-agent for each sub-task. The model provides the intelligence. The harness converts intelligence into work. Now here's where it gets interesting. "Even the best model in the world will feel broken without a great harness. And an okay model with a great harness can feel like magic." If that is true, the enterprise buyer is not buying model quality. The enterprise buyer is buying the harness. Which means model quality becomes a commodity input over time, and harness quality becomes the sustainable moat. Compare that to the strategy the entire frontier lab industry is executing. Everyone else is chasing the numerator raw intelligence. Almost nobody at scale is racing to build the denominator the orchestration layer that determines whether that intelligence can actually be deployed profitably inside a real company. The frontier model race has a 10 to 20 percent chance of producing a single dominant winner. Nadella just told the industry he does not need to be that winner. If OpenAI wins, Microsoft wins. If Anthropic wins, Microsoft wins. If MAI wins, Microsoft wins. If someone Microsoft has never heard of trains a better model in 2027, Microsoft still wins. Because the compute they train on, the harness they get plugged into, the enterprise contracts they get delivered through, and the products they sit inside are all Microsoft. He is not building the best AI model. He is building the layer that the best AI model has to run on to make anyone money. I wonder which position looks more valuable in ten years.
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The entire AI industry is racing to build the smartest model. Satya Nadella just admitted that is not where the money is. The model is not the product. The harness is. That is the exact line. And it changes what Microsoft is actually competing on. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta every frontier lab is pouring hundreds of billions into training compute, chasing the next capability jump. Each betting that raw model intelligence is the moat. Microsoft is doing the opposite. It is building the harness the orchestration layer that sits above the model, connecting it to tools, data, permissions, sub-agents, and enterprise workflows. And it is letting OpenAI, Anthropic, and MAI compete to plug into it. "You need the model. But the model is not the product. The harness is." So do the math on what a harness actually does. A raw model dropped into an enterprise answers questions. That is a chatbot. A harness turns that same model into an agent that reads the SharePoint, edits the ERP entry, pulls the GitHub PR, updates Salesforce, and files the Excel report with the right permissions, the right audit trail, and the right sub-agent for each sub-task. The model provides the intelligence. The harness converts intelligence into work. Now here's where it gets interesting. "Even the best model in the world will feel broken without a great harness. And an okay model with a great harness can feel like magic." If that is true, the enterprise buyer is not buying model quality. The enterprise buyer is buying the harness. Which means model quality becomes a commodity input over time, and harness quality becomes the sustainable moat. Compare that to the strategy the entire frontier lab industry is executing. Everyone else is chasing the numerator raw intelligence. Almost nobody at scale is racing to build the denominator the orchestration layer that determines whether that intelligence can actually be deployed profitably inside a real company. The frontier model race has a 10 to 20 percent chance of producing a single dominant winner. Nadella just told the industry he does not need to be that winner. If OpenAI wins, Microsoft wins. If Anthropic wins, Microsoft wins. If MAI wins, Microsoft wins. If someone Microsoft has never heard of trains a better model in 2027, Microsoft still wins. Because the compute they train on, the harness they get plugged into, the enterprise contracts they get delivered through, and the products they sit inside are all Microsoft. He is not building the best AI model. He is building the layer that the best AI model has to run on to make anyone money. I wonder which position looks more valuable in ten years.

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"I believe that America is going to be fine, no matter what happens in this election" OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says that whoever the next US president is, the country — and artificial intelligence — will be OK, as he speaks at #BloombergHouse in Davos

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This is from Apple's State of the Union The local model is a 3B parameter SLM that uses adapters trained for each specific feature. Diffusion model does the same thing, adapter for each style. Anything running locally or Apple's Secure Cloud is an Apple model, not OpenAI.
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This is from Apple's State of the Union The local model is a 3B parameter SLM that uses adapters trained for each specific feature. Diffusion model does the same thing, adapter for each style. Anything running locally or Apple's Secure Cloud is an Apple model, not OpenAI.

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The upcoming OpenAI's open model is mixture of expert model. They take their proprietary training process and train a model with an model architecture that only contains publicly well known model arch layers & optimizations similar. This allows OpenAI to keep their internal model architecture an secret while they open weight an SOTA model. Thus, none of their long context optimizations needed for acutal real world production serving are in the open model architecture. OpenAI has created multiple different sizes of open weights distilled o3 including an 120B param that fits on a single node and 20B param that fits on a single chip.
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The upcoming OpenAI's open model is mixture of expert model. They take their proprietary training process and train a model with an model architecture that only contains publicly well known model arch layers & optimizations similar. This allows OpenAI to keep their internal model architecture an secret while they open weight an SOTA model. Thus, none of their long context optimizations needed for acutal real world production serving are in the open model architecture. OpenAI has created multiple different sizes of open weights distilled o3 including an 120B param that fits on a single node and 20B param that fits on a single chip.

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GPT-5 Pro is genuinely a top tier model, it is the best. I know some GPT-5 reactions have been mixed (including from me), but OpenAI has made great strides with Pro. I have made 12 simulations that no other model would match, not from OpenAI, Google, xAI or Anthropic. All of them were 1-3 shots (mostly to fix small issues) and the output is really outstanding. OpenAI Developers
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GPT-5 Pro is genuinely a top tier model, it is the best. I know some GPT-5 reactions have been mixed (including from me), but OpenAI has made great strides with Pro. I have made 12 simulations that no other model would match, not from OpenAI, Google, xAI or Anthropic. All of them were 1-3 shots (mostly to fix small issues) and the output is really outstanding. OpenAI Developers

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Transgender model Alex Consani who has become the first trans model to win the women’s ‘Model of the Year’ award gives advice to other transgender models. “No matter what anybody else says around you, you are that b*tch. And you will be that b*tch.”

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OpenAI is adopting the "Palantir model" with forward-deployed engineers and AI consultants for enterprise sales. "It's a model that AI companies are now starting to realize that they actually need people to help sell...” — Sri Muppidi Watch the full episode on TITV.
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OpenAI is adopting the "Palantir model" with forward-deployed engineers and AI consultants for enterprise sales. "It's a model that AI companies are now starting to realize that they actually need people to help sell...” — Sri Muppidi Watch the full episode on TITV.

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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”
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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

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Threadguy explains why Apple will capture ALL of the value from AI “Models have become a commodity, we'll be able to just use the best model at any given time” "The more data AI has access to, the better it is. Everyone already has an iPhone, the next iPhone is just going to launch with some OpenClaw esque assistant utilising the best model plugged into it and its probably going to be the best AI experience you’ve ever had”

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DeepSeek is the black swan OpenAI and $NVDA didn't see coming. CNBC is all over it, questioning what happens next now that this free open source model costs 30x less to operate on old hardware.
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DeepSeek is the black swan OpenAI and $NVDA didn't see coming. CNBC is all over it, questioning what happens next now that this free open source model costs 30x less to operate on old hardware.

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