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Thought this was incredibly insightful on why prediction markets gained more adoption due to polarization From Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara's interview on Cheeky Pint "The country is more polarized. The world is more polarized The incentive structure for most things we read these days is clickbait, whether... show more

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Prediction markets are one of the most hotly-discussed new technologies of the past few years. Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, founders of Kalshi, joined Matt Huang and me in the Cheeky Pint pub. We discussed their landmark lawsuit against the CFTC, how market making works on Kalshi, and where prediction markets go from here.

Prediction markets are one of the most hotly-discussed new technologies of the past few years. Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, founders of Kalshi, joined Matt Huang and me in the Cheeky Pint pub. We discussed their landmark lawsuit against the CFTC, how market making works on Kalshi, and where prediction markets go from here.

John Collison

297,589 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

VOX Beta is coming soon. A new prediction experience is taking shape: 🔮 Social Algorithmic Discovery Smarter feeds, more flexible events, and faster ways to find the markets that matter. 📺 Live Prediction Trading Watch the stream, read the momentum, and trade as the action unfolds. 🤖 Agent-Powered Prediction Tools Your personal trading assistant for insights, signals, and smarter decision-making. Prediction markets are becoming more social, more real-time, and more intelligent. VOX is building for that future.

VOX Beta is coming soon. A new prediction experience is taking shape: 🔮 Social Algorithmic Discovery Smarter feeds, more flexible events, and faster ways to find the markets that matter. 📺 Live Prediction Trading Watch the stream, read the momentum, and trade as the action unfolds. 🤖 Agent-Powered Prediction Tools Your personal trading assistant for insights, signals, and smarter decision-making. Prediction markets are becoming more social, more real-time, and more intelligent. VOX is building for that future.

VOX

15,815 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

ELON: I COULDN'T THINK OF ANYTHING MORE INSPIRING THAN HAVING A BASE ON MARS “I couldn't think of anything more exciting, fun, and inspiring for the future than to have a base on Mars. It would be incredibly difficult. Probably lots of people will die, and terrible and great things will happen along the way, just as they happened in the formation of the United States. It'll be one of those things that is incredibly inspiring, and we must have inspiring things in the world. Life cannot just be about solving this problem or that problem. There must be things that, when you wake up in the morning, you're glad to be alive. That is, for me, the most important reason why we should pursue the establishment of life on Mars.” Source: The Mars Society, August 2012

ELON: I COULDN'T THINK OF ANYTHING MORE INSPIRING THAN HAVING A BASE ON MARS “I couldn't think of anything more exciting, fun, and inspiring for the future than to have a base on Mars. It would be incredibly difficult. Probably lots of people will die, and terrible and great things will happen along the way, just as they happened in the formation of the United States. It'll be one of those things that is incredibly inspiring, and we must have inspiring things in the world. Life cannot just be about solving this problem or that problem. There must be things that, when you wake up in the morning, you're glad to be alive. That is, for me, the most important reason why we should pursue the establishment of life on Mars.” Source: The Mars Society, August 2012

Mario Nawfal

17,463,695 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

We totally share Eddy Travia's vision on prediction markets. It's a great, growing market that attracts passionate builders across the globe. Our chief evangelist Steven Zeiler is on the mission to help these builders make prediction markets more accessible, liquid, and user-friendly.

We totally share Eddy Travia's vision on prediction markets. It's a great, growing market that attracts passionate builders across the globe. Our chief evangelist Steven Zeiler is on the mission to help these builders make prediction markets more accessible, liquid, and user-friendly.

Yellow

40,661 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets? Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same. “But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it” “The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”

Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets? Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same. “But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it” “The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”

ShaDow | Clipur.com

23,860 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”

Coalition for Prediction Markets

55,709 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Angelina Jolie Has Finally Woken Up To The Fact The United Nations & Governments Are Run By Heartless Criminals There’s No Accountability For Crimes “If There’s A Business Interest Involved” “That is the biggest that is the most disheartening thing of I think we we or I thought at least even 20 years ago when I started to work internationally that there was this I in my head, some weird idea of good guys. You know? Some idea of those whether it be certain countries or certain people's maybe it was this holdover from World War 2 and this thought that this was, like so that the lines were clear and that there was going to be these human rights goals laid out and that there would be things stood up for, and that if these things weren't done, there would be pushback, and these were the and I really thought that's what it was. I even thought that's what the United Nations was… And I thought, okay. There's a there's some lines in the sand. There's some understanding. We're gonna grow and fight for improvements in these areas. And and to watch to watch and understand more and more how it's just simply that's not what it is. That's not the world. The world is not these are human rights. It is these are human rights sometimes for these people, maybe sometimes for these people, never for these people. Yeah. It's food aid, 6% for these people, 50% for these people, it's justice for these people, but not these people. Accountability for this crime, but not that crime if there's business interest. And this is truly the ugly state of of so much of the world that we are just becoming more and more aware of for just about every I mean, I don't know any countries that are are clean of it and, um, and willing to hold a line really consistently hand on behalf of the of human rights and laws”

Angelina Jolie Has Finally Woken Up To The Fact The United Nations & Governments Are Run By Heartless Criminals There’s No Accountability For Crimes “If There’s A Business Interest Involved” “That is the biggest that is the most disheartening thing of I think we we or I thought at least even 20 years ago when I started to work internationally that there was this I in my head, some weird idea of good guys. You know? Some idea of those whether it be certain countries or certain people's maybe it was this holdover from World War 2 and this thought that this was, like so that the lines were clear and that there was going to be these human rights goals laid out and that there would be things stood up for, and that if these things weren't done, there would be pushback, and these were the and I really thought that's what it was. I even thought that's what the United Nations was… And I thought, okay. There's a there's some lines in the sand. There's some understanding. We're gonna grow and fight for improvements in these areas. And and to watch to watch and understand more and more how it's just simply that's not what it is. That's not the world. The world is not these are human rights. It is these are human rights sometimes for these people, maybe sometimes for these people, never for these people. Yeah. It's food aid, 6% for these people, 50% for these people, it's justice for these people, but not these people. Accountability for this crime, but not that crime if there's business interest. And this is truly the ugly state of of so much of the world that we are just becoming more and more aware of for just about every I mean, I don't know any countries that are are clean of it and, um, and willing to hold a line really consistently hand on behalf of the of human rights and laws”

Wall Street Apes

658,860 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

The line "decentralization doesn't matter" is getting repeated more and more these days. I recently broke out into debate on-stage with Mason Nystrom about why decentralization was essential to prediction markets existing at all. It got heated. Worth the 5 minutes:

The line "decentralization doesn't matter" is getting repeated more and more these days. I recently broke out into debate on-stage with Mason Nystrom about why decentralization was essential to prediction markets existing at all. It got heated. Worth the 5 minutes:

Haseeb ＞|＜

41,718 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Qullamaggie on Success in Trading Is More About Not Doing Dumb Things “No, no, truly — I mean trading like… you don’t have to do a lot of advanced and smart things in the markets. Success in markets is more about not doing a lot of shit, dumb things — avoiding the dumb stuff. I truly think that. Every year I try to do less of the things that don’t work.”

Qullamaggie on Success in Trading Is More About Not Doing Dumb Things “No, no, truly — I mean trading like… you don’t have to do a lot of advanced and smart things in the markets. Success in markets is more about not doing a lot of shit, dumb things — avoiding the dumb stuff. I truly think that. Every year I try to do less of the things that don’t work.”

Lone

13,321 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Top trader Domer❤️‍🔥 on if he is more informed from prediction markets compared to the news: "Well...yes. You have to be dispassionate about things. You can't look at things from a biased lens."

Top trader Domer❤️‍🔥 on if he is more informed from prediction markets compared to the news: "Well...yes. You have to be dispassionate about things. You can't look at things from a biased lens."

Kalshi Research

13,796 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”

The All-In Podcast

78,434 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

David Friedberg: “Gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” @jason: “Friedberg, what are your thoughts on the gaming industry versus social media versus traditional media?” david friedberg: “One way to answer that question is to think about how people spend their time.” “Do you spend more minutes on social media, or on traditional media, or playing games? And how is that trending?” “But importantly, which of those will accrue more benefit, and as a result, drive more hours spent from AI?” “One way to think about this thesis is that AI is going to ultimately accrue to video game entertainment far more than social media entertainment or traditional content.” “If you believe in AI, and you believe in the improvements in productivity, generally speaking, people in the industrialized world will generally have more free time on their hands and be able to support themselves with the deflationary effects of AI over time.” “So if there's more time on people's hands, the general market for entertainment is growing, and if the general market for entertainment is growing, gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” “Because I think you can create dynamic, more engaging experiences that will benefit from a back and forth sort of relationship than you can with traditional content or with social media.” “If you're a noob in Fortnite, like you're an early player in Fortnite, you're mostly playing against AI, because what they do is they tune the AI to be easier to beat so that you can slowly develop your skills.” “What was happening early was they were seeing a high degree of churn in Fortnite because kids would go on and play for the first time and they'd get paired up with kids that were better than them, and so they would never win, and they would get frustrated and they would quit the game and stop.” “So the churn rate was high. So AI unlocked higher engagement and higher retention, and I think we're seeing that in a lot of different gaming platforms now.” “So AI can be used, for example, to maximally increase time, engagement, satisfaction, happiness.”

David Friedberg: “Gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” @jason: “Friedberg, what are your thoughts on the gaming industry versus social media versus traditional media?” david friedberg: “One way to answer that question is to think about how people spend their time.” “Do you spend more minutes on social media, or on traditional media, or playing games? And how is that trending?” “But importantly, which of those will accrue more benefit, and as a result, drive more hours spent from AI?” “One way to think about this thesis is that AI is going to ultimately accrue to video game entertainment far more than social media entertainment or traditional content.” “If you believe in AI, and you believe in the improvements in productivity, generally speaking, people in the industrialized world will generally have more free time on their hands and be able to support themselves with the deflationary effects of AI over time.” “So if there's more time on people's hands, the general market for entertainment is growing, and if the general market for entertainment is growing, gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” “Because I think you can create dynamic, more engaging experiences that will benefit from a back and forth sort of relationship than you can with traditional content or with social media.” “If you're a noob in Fortnite, like you're an early player in Fortnite, you're mostly playing against AI, because what they do is they tune the AI to be easier to beat so that you can slowly develop your skills.” “What was happening early was they were seeing a high degree of churn in Fortnite because kids would go on and play for the first time and they'd get paired up with kids that were better than them, and so they would never win, and they would get frustrated and they would quit the game and stop.” “So the churn rate was high. So AI unlocked higher engagement and higher retention, and I think we're seeing that in a lot of different gaming platforms now.” “So AI can be used, for example, to maximally increase time, engagement, satisfaction, happiness.”

The All-In Podcast

70,365 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:

a16z

71,210 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This is why I love Elon Musk! Elon Musk just flips the interview and tells the legacy media that they are the ones people actually hate. "Elon Musk: Perhaps some people do loathe me. That is probably true. I do not care. But as you pointed out, a quarter of a billion people follow me. I think far more people like me than dislike me. I also think far more people hate you and the media than you realize. Do you realize how despised the media is? The favorable view of journalists is around 15 percent. Interviewer: Yes, I know there is a loss of trust in journalism in the United States. There have been mistakes by journalists and by journalism, and I fully acknowledge that. But I also think the polarized environment, particularly on social media, which is fostered by the kind of things you promote on X, makes it worse. Elon Musk: I do not think so. I think the media is the problem. People loathe you far more than they loathe me, and you do not seem to realize it. Interviewer: Very few people know who I am compared with you, so I do not think we are playing the same game. Elon Musk: The media collectively is hated. Do you even realize that?"

This is why I love Elon Musk! Elon Musk just flips the interview and tells the legacy media that they are the ones people actually hate. "Elon Musk: Perhaps some people do loathe me. That is probably true. I do not care. But as you pointed out, a quarter of a billion people follow me. I think far more people like me than dislike me. I also think far more people hate you and the media than you realize. Do you realize how despised the media is? The favorable view of journalists is around 15 percent. Interviewer: Yes, I know there is a loss of trust in journalism in the United States. There have been mistakes by journalists and by journalism, and I fully acknowledge that. But I also think the polarized environment, particularly on social media, which is fostered by the kind of things you promote on X, makes it worse. Elon Musk: I do not think so. I think the media is the problem. People loathe you far more than they loathe me, and you do not seem to realize it. Interviewer: Very few people know who I am compared with you, so I do not think we are playing the same game. Elon Musk: The media collectively is hated. Do you even realize that?"

Doge Tipping

113,719 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

Long time listener, first time caller - I’m thrilled to share that I’ve joined Kalshi to build out the Product function! Prediction markets are incredibly powerful primitives that are just starting to be explored, much like how crypto was 10 years ago. Anyone can make a market for the outcome of an event, creating a much more balanced and reliable source of information than traditional news or polls. Kalshi is an unstoppable force. It single-handedly created the US prediction market category through sheer willpower and relentless regulatory effort (just google "Kalshi sues CFTC"). It’s a better source of truth for the presidential election than traditional polls, it pioneered "mention markets," created a platform for anyone to earn on their knowledge, and has set the pace of innovation in financial markets over the last few years. I can’t think of two better people to lead the way than Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. As soon as I met them I knew they had what it took to build a generational company and that I wanted to build it with them. My mission here is to lead and scale our Product function, helping us build the next generation of trading products and markets to make this vision a reality. Everybody is an expert on something, and Kalshi is the definitive platform to trade on that knowledge. The markets agree - this week alone, we deepened our partnership with Solana on Monday, announced our Series E raise from Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, a16z and more on Tuesday, launched our partnership with CNN to reshape the future of news Wednesday, and announced our partnership with CNBC Thursday. And this is just a normal week for us. To use my favorite Coinbase phrase - it's still day 1. P.S. We are hiring. If you are interested in building what has the potential to be the most important consumer opportunity of our times, message me.

Long time listener, first time caller - I’m thrilled to share that I’ve joined Kalshi to build out the Product function! Prediction markets are incredibly powerful primitives that are just starting to be explored, much like how crypto was 10 years ago. Anyone can make a market for the outcome of an event, creating a much more balanced and reliable source of information than traditional news or polls. Kalshi is an unstoppable force. It single-handedly created the US prediction market category through sheer willpower and relentless regulatory effort (just google "Kalshi sues CFTC"). It’s a better source of truth for the presidential election than traditional polls, it pioneered "mention markets," created a platform for anyone to earn on their knowledge, and has set the pace of innovation in financial markets over the last few years. I can’t think of two better people to lead the way than Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. As soon as I met them I knew they had what it took to build a generational company and that I wanted to build it with them. My mission here is to lead and scale our Product function, helping us build the next generation of trading products and markets to make this vision a reality. Everybody is an expert on something, and Kalshi is the definitive platform to trade on that knowledge. The markets agree - this week alone, we deepened our partnership with Solana on Monday, announced our Series E raise from Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, a16z and more on Tuesday, launched our partnership with CNN to reshape the future of news Wednesday, and announced our partnership with CNBC Thursday. And this is just a normal week for us. To use my favorite Coinbase phrase - it's still day 1. P.S. We are hiring. If you are interested in building what has the potential to be the most important consumer opportunity of our times, message me.

Catherine Sullivan

68,837 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Could not agree more. Problem is he might compete/chase more speed until he drops dead. His interview on Rory’s win on Golf Channel is must-see. One thing I was surprised to hear, because I think Harrington was being 100% serious, was that 10, 15 and possibly 18 majors is now on the table. “The beauty for Rory, is that his game is future-proofed.”

Could not agree more. Problem is he might compete/chase more speed until he drops dead. His interview on Rory’s win on Golf Channel is must-see. One thing I was surprised to hear, because I think Harrington was being 100% serious, was that 10, 15 and possibly 18 majors is now on the table. “The beauty for Rory, is that his game is future-proofed.”

Christopher Powers

1,762,955 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This week Jupiter announced a $125,000 World Cup prediction markets contest on Jupiter Prediction Markets. And that is just the start. Introducing the Jupiter Community Predictor Challenge: a full WC 2026 bracket pool with $12,000 on the line. Here is everything you need to know 🧵👇

This week Jupiter announced a $125,000 World Cup prediction markets contest on Jupiter Prediction Markets. And that is just the start. Introducing the Jupiter Community Predictor Challenge: a full WC 2026 bracket pool with $12,000 on the line. Here is everything you need to know 🧵👇

Jupiter Community

51,335 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

.Ben Shapiro on why he thinks AOC is suddenly against betting markets: “Name another aspect of consumption that AOC is dramatically against…like prostitution, drugs, alcohol - name a thing that AOC believes there should not be a market for. The only thing she believes there should not be a market for is a prediction market, and the only reason she's saying that is because, of course, Don Jr. is associated with prediction markets. I think it's that simple.”

.Ben Shapiro on why he thinks AOC is suddenly against betting markets: “Name another aspect of consumption that AOC is dramatically against…like prostitution, drugs, alcohol - name a thing that AOC believes there should not be a market for. The only thing she believes there should not be a market for is a prediction market, and the only reason she's saying that is because, of course, Don Jr. is associated with prediction markets. I think it's that simple.”

Daily Wire

83,678 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Mr. Yuval Levin, Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute, reflects on the role of Congress: "If we're going to have a politics in which deliberation plays a central role, we have to have a politics in which Congress plays a central role. That part can only be played by a plural institution that is both representative and deliberative, and that is what Congress is designed to be." … "We are living in a political moment where the deepest differences do not get worked out, and we've persuaded ourselves that this is because we're polarized, or it's because we're divided, or it's social media. We're not more polarized than the America of the late eighteenth century. We're not more divided than the America of the mid-nineteenth century. These technologies have not changed human nature or the character of politics. The core institution of our system now does not want the role it is assigned, and that is what has to change."

Mr. Yuval Levin, Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute, reflects on the role of Congress: "If we're going to have a politics in which deliberation plays a central role, we have to have a politics in which Congress plays a central role. That part can only be played by a plural institution that is both representative and deliberative, and that is what Congress is designed to be." … "We are living in a political moment where the deepest differences do not get worked out, and we've persuaded ourselves that this is because we're polarized, or it's because we're divided, or it's social media. We're not more polarized than the America of the late eighteenth century. We're not more divided than the America of the mid-nineteenth century. These technologies have not changed human nature or the character of politics. The core institution of our system now does not want the role it is assigned, and that is what has to change."

Federalist Society

13,045 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten