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Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash), Chatham House expert: Türkiye has a strong entrepreneurial culture. Public finances are in decent shape. Public sector debt GDP is quite low, less than 30%. They're doing the right things now. They raised interest rates. They tightened policy. There's evidence now inflation is moderating.

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Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash), Chatham House expert: Türkiye has a very strong defense industrial sector, strong military. There are opportunities for increased defense cooperation with Türkiye. Türkiye is a gateway to the region for Western companies. Türkiye has very good trading relationships with Iraq, Iran, the Gulf states, Southern Caucasus region, you know, again, that's an opportunity.

Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash), Chatham House expert: Türkiye has a very strong defense industrial sector, strong military. There are opportunities for increased defense cooperation with Türkiye. Türkiye is a gateway to the region for Western companies. Türkiye has very good trading relationships with Iraq, Iran, the Gulf states, Southern Caucasus region, you know, again, that's an opportunity.

Clash Report

22,294 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash) | Russia & Eurasia Expert | Chatham House: Question: Could European reluctance toward Türkiye be just outright racism? Answer: There is quite a lot of that. In continental Europe, there is institutional racism against Türkiye. Let's be honest about it. Remember Chirac's comments on Turkish-EU accession - "the French people will decide." Then Sarkozy & Merkel with the privileged partnership. The pattern is clear. The irony - in recent months we saw Türkiye deploy its drone carrier with significant troop deployments in defense of Germany during Baltic military exercises. Türkiye can provide quick solutions to Europe's defense problems. Europe just needs to get over its Türkiye-phobia.

Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash) | Russia & Eurasia Expert | Chatham House: Question: Could European reluctance toward Türkiye be just outright racism? Answer: There is quite a lot of that. In continental Europe, there is institutional racism against Türkiye. Let's be honest about it. Remember Chirac's comments on Turkish-EU accession - "the French people will decide." Then Sarkozy & Merkel with the privileged partnership. The pattern is clear. The irony - in recent months we saw Türkiye deploy its drone carrier with significant troop deployments in defense of Germany during Baltic military exercises. Türkiye can provide quick solutions to Europe's defense problems. Europe just needs to get over its Türkiye-phobia.

Clash Report

51,110 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash) | Russia & Eurasia Expert | Chatham House: It would be idiotic to ignore what Türkiye brings to the table. 400,000 battle-hardened soldiers, thousands of main battle tanks & armored personnel carriers - & a military industrial complex built over 20 years while Europe was de-industrializing. The quickest way for Europe to rebuild defense capability is through Türkiye's defense manufacturing base. Two-thirds of Türkiye's foreign investment, financing & trade is with Europe. Türkiye is the largest military force in European NATO. Von Der Leyen's comments make no sense. European politicians are still living in a fantasy land - not understanding the threats they face. When presented with solutions, they find excuses to ignore them.

Timothy Ash (Timothy Ash) | Russia & Eurasia Expert | Chatham House: It would be idiotic to ignore what Türkiye brings to the table. 400,000 battle-hardened soldiers, thousands of main battle tanks & armored personnel carriers - & a military industrial complex built over 20 years while Europe was de-industrializing. The quickest way for Europe to rebuild defense capability is through Türkiye's defense manufacturing base. Two-thirds of Türkiye's foreign investment, financing & trade is with Europe. Türkiye is the largest military force in European NATO. Von Der Leyen's comments make no sense. European politicians are still living in a fantasy land - not understanding the threats they face. When presented with solutions, they find excuses to ignore them.

Clash Report

44,725 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Lukas Ekwueme

54,518 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Leavitt: I think the president made his position on the Fed and Powell quite clear. The president believes they have been making moves and taking action in the name of politics rather than in the name of what is right for the American economy. The president has the right to express his displeasure with the fed and believes interest rates should be lower. I also spoke to Kevin Hassett about the fed. He's called into question the fed's Independence and whether they are actually doing things out of the best interest of the economy or if they are doing it for partisan reasons. The president wants to see interest rates lower. He's made that quite clear.

Leavitt: I think the president made his position on the Fed and Powell quite clear. The president believes they have been making moves and taking action in the name of politics rather than in the name of what is right for the American economy. The president has the right to express his displeasure with the fed and believes interest rates should be lower. I also spoke to Kevin Hassett about the fed. He's called into question the fed's Independence and whether they are actually doing things out of the best interest of the economy or if they are doing it for partisan reasons. The president wants to see interest rates lower. He's made that quite clear.

Acyn

545,826 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its impacts are less obvious than the alternatives. At such times, you should expect interest rates and the currency’s value to fall.

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its impacts are less obvious than the alternatives. At such times, you should expect interest rates and the currency’s value to fall.

Ray Dalio

380,182 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

What happens if interest on the debt doubles to more than $2 trillion/year? Sen. Rand Paul: "[The BBB] will be historically the greatest increase in the debt ceiling ever in our history. At a time when we’re having trouble selling the 10-year bond, we’re having interest rates at 5%. We also are having the interest payment over $1 trillion. "Imagine what happens if the, you know, the interest payments double? We’re paying on average about 3.5%. now we’re paying 1.7% on the debt. What if it doubles again? ... Right now we’re going to vote on a rescission package. if we can’t cut $9 billion in foreign aid welfare, the country is doomed. This is $9 billion. This is a rounding error ... If people can’t support any cuts, the whole American public needs to know who they are."

What happens if interest on the debt doubles to more than $2 trillion/year? Sen. Rand Paul: "[The BBB] will be historically the greatest increase in the debt ceiling ever in our history. At a time when we’re having trouble selling the 10-year bond, we’re having interest rates at 5%. We also are having the interest payment over $1 trillion. "Imagine what happens if the, you know, the interest payments double? We’re paying on average about 3.5%. now we’re paying 1.7% on the debt. What if it doubles again? ... Right now we’re going to vote on a rescission package. if we can’t cut $9 billion in foreign aid welfare, the country is doomed. This is $9 billion. This is a rounding error ... If people can’t support any cuts, the whole American public needs to know who they are."

Tom Elliott

17,873 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

MILEI: WE HAVE LOWERED 30% OF PUBLIC SPENDING, THIS IS GIVING FREEDOM BACK TO PEOPLE "Argentina has a zero-deficit policy. We are one of the five countries in the world that have a financial surplus, the remaining 190 have a deficit. Having financial surplus combined with our GDP expansion means our debt-to-GDP ratio is falling. Therefore, inexorably Argentina's country risk will end. Also, Rothbard said that true fiscal pressure was the size of the public sector. We have lowered public spending by 30% in real terms. Come tell me we ain't giving freedom back to the people." -President Javier Milei Javier Milei

MILEI: WE HAVE LOWERED 30% OF PUBLIC SPENDING, THIS IS GIVING FREEDOM BACK TO PEOPLE "Argentina has a zero-deficit policy. We are one of the five countries in the world that have a financial surplus, the remaining 190 have a deficit. Having financial surplus combined with our GDP expansion means our debt-to-GDP ratio is falling. Therefore, inexorably Argentina's country risk will end. Also, Rothbard said that true fiscal pressure was the size of the public sector. We have lowered public spending by 30% in real terms. Come tell me we ain't giving freedom back to the people." -President Javier Milei Javier Milei

Argentina's Milei News 🇦🇷🤝🌎

104,110 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Will McEvoy on why privacy is the most important investment thesis in technology right now: "Internet: step down in privacy. Phones: another step down. Social media: another. AI: very large step down." "We have never had less privacy than we do today. Privacy technology is a hedge against surveillance and AI's negative externalities." "No one is working on privacy in public markets. Apple says they are, but there's not another public company focused on privacy outside of us."

Will McEvoy on why privacy is the most important investment thesis in technology right now: "Internet: step down in privacy. Phones: another step down. Social media: another. AI: very large step down." "We have never had less privacy than we do today. Privacy technology is a hedge against surveillance and AI's negative externalities." "No one is working on privacy in public markets. Apple says they are, but there's not another public company focused on privacy outside of us."

The Rollup

24,339 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Out now- how Alf is seeing things in macro: - bullish stocks and bonds because the Fed put is back - yield curve to bull steepen as Fed cuts interest rates as inflation moderates - the abundance of long-term fixed-rate debt in the U.S. has shielded the American private sector from the ravages of higher rates - however, to say that high rates are actually stimulative is going too far. borrowers will have to refinance eventually - much of European economy has already felt the contractionary effects of higher rates. That is why the Swedish central bank has already begun to cut interest rates. expect more of this This interview is brought to you by VanEck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. I'm very proud to say that VanEck is Forward Guidance's exclusive sponsor - check them out! Recorded on May 8 Enjoy 🔥

Out now- how Alf is seeing things in macro: - bullish stocks and bonds because the Fed put is back - yield curve to bull steepen as Fed cuts interest rates as inflation moderates - the abundance of long-term fixed-rate debt in the U.S. has shielded the American private sector from the ravages of higher rates - however, to say that high rates are actually stimulative is going too far. borrowers will have to refinance eventually - much of European economy has already felt the contractionary effects of higher rates. That is why the Swedish central bank has already begun to cut interest rates. expect more of this This interview is brought to you by VanEck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. I'm very proud to say that VanEck is Forward Guidance's exclusive sponsor - check them out! Recorded on May 8 Enjoy 🔥

Jack Farley

36,817 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

This just shows how weak the US fiscal situation is... the US can't afford this war. - $40T in debt - Debt/GDP < peak WWII levels ~$1.2T in annual interest expense Bessent now has to defend the yen, keep Japanese yields low, keep oil prices low and keep US interest rates low... just to keep this war going. While he's done a great job containing oil prices and, more recently, supporting the yen, Japanese and US yields are still far too high. At the end of the day, we'll get some form of YCC out of necessity... which, of course, will be inflationary.

This just shows how weak the US fiscal situation is... the US can't afford this war. - $40T in debt - Debt/GDP < peak WWII levels ~$1.2T in annual interest expense Bessent now has to defend the yen, keep Japanese yields low, keep oil prices low and keep US interest rates low... just to keep this war going. While he's done a great job containing oil prices and, more recently, supporting the yen, Japanese and US yields are still far too high. At the end of the day, we'll get some form of YCC out of necessity... which, of course, will be inflationary.

Lukas Ekwueme

19,222 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

This is the Islamic takeover of America “There's nearly 7 million American Muslims right now. Alhamdulillah — Part of power building is building a pipeline of leaders. I want to see inshallah one day governor of the state of Florida is a Muslim — The house has Muslims in there — Senators, Muslim senators, say inshallah” They are literally telling us they are working to take over our government “Muslims are men who defend themselves. They defend their religion. They defend their principles, what they believe in. They don't apologize about Jihad. They're not afraid of Jihad. It's a part of who we are.”

This is the Islamic takeover of America “There's nearly 7 million American Muslims right now. Alhamdulillah — Part of power building is building a pipeline of leaders. I want to see inshallah one day governor of the state of Florida is a Muslim — The house has Muslims in there — Senators, Muslim senators, say inshallah” They are literally telling us they are working to take over our government “Muslims are men who defend themselves. They defend their religion. They defend their principles, what they believe in. They don't apologize about Jihad. They're not afraid of Jihad. It's a part of who we are.”

Wall Street Apes

28,826 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🇺🇸 CHAMATH: IPOs ARE BOOSTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY "You can have a ton of money go into these private companies, take them public at a very low cost of capital. A normalization of the vehicle has now raised more than $200 billion for American companies. Investors want a competitive IPO market that brings many American businesses to the public market so they can be owned by everybody. The incentives are such that there's no compensation unless it works." Source: The All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya

🇺🇸 CHAMATH: IPOs ARE BOOSTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY "You can have a ton of money go into these private companies, take them public at a very low cost of capital. A normalization of the vehicle has now raised more than $200 billion for American companies. Investors want a competitive IPO market that brings many American businesses to the public market so they can be owned by everybody. The incentives are such that there's no compensation unless it works." Source: The All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya

Mario Nawfal

70,976 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Rob Finnerty: “The Republican Party now has more billionaire donors than any party ever in history, which is a lot better than Democrats can say. Right now, they are still $16 million in debt, thanks to the failed campaign of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, who spent over $1 billion in just over 100 days.” Rob Finnerty

Rob Finnerty: “The Republican Party now has more billionaire donors than any party ever in history, which is a lot better than Democrats can say. Right now, they are still $16 million in debt, thanks to the failed campaign of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, who spent over $1 billion in just over 100 days.” Rob Finnerty

NEWSMAX

101,346 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🦊: are soondoongdori doing well? 🐰: they're doing well! those old guys 🦊: how old are soondoongdori? 🐰: they're 15 now so how old are they in human years? they're probably older than my dad 🦊: right, they're getting old now 🐰: but in my eyes, they're still babies 🦊: that's right, it's because hyung raised them 🦊: i want to see the cats 🐰: come to our house 🦊: hyung's house? 🐰: yes 🦊: ah your parents' house? 🐰: yeah, to see the cats 🦊: alright i'll come 🐰: when i'm not there 🦊: okay, i'll have a chat with your mother 🐰: when my mom isn't there too 🦊: ah really? ㅎㅎㅎ

🦊: are soondoongdori doing well? 🐰: they're doing well! those old guys 🦊: how old are soondoongdori? 🐰: they're 15 now so how old are they in human years? they're probably older than my dad 🦊: right, they're getting old now 🐰: but in my eyes, they're still babies 🦊: that's right, it's because hyung raised them 🦊: i want to see the cats 🐰: come to our house 🦊: hyung's house? 🐰: yes 🦊: ah your parents' house? 🐰: yeah, to see the cats 🦊: alright i'll come 🐰: when i'm not there 🦊: okay, i'll have a chat with your mother 🐰: when my mom isn't there too 🦊: ah really? ㅎㅎㅎ

비니

88,895 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

So... She got her now husband to pay for her bankruptcy, they both have no idea how bad her finances are, she wants to hide that she has 30k in debt 9k of which is tax debt owed to the IRS. She has a 200k renovation planned for a house her husband owns. She lied about her not wanting to mix finances when it was actually him because he knows she's bad with money.

So... She got her now husband to pay for her bankruptcy, they both have no idea how bad her finances are, she wants to hide that she has 30k in debt 9k of which is tax debt owed to the IRS. She has a 200k renovation planned for a house her husband owns. She lied about her not wanting to mix finances when it was actually him because he knows she's bad with money.

Paul

10,143 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

DAVE SMITH: WE HAVE AN UNPRECEDENTED DEBT CRISIS—BUT THEY TELL YOU ELON IS THE PROBLEM!? “The U.S. federal government is the biggest organization in the history of the world. We spend more than any other government in the history of the world has ever spent. We are so far in debt now that the interest on the debt is now, I believe last year it was $1.2 trillion. And it's going up. The interest on the debt is now overtaking the entire budget. If we balanced our budget tomorrow, we still run a trillion-dollar deficit every year just because we owe it on the interest on the debt. This is so obviously a crisis. And then they're trying to convince you that the real crisis is that Elon Musk and a few of his genius nerd buddies want to open the books. How the fuck can you convince anyone of that?” Source: The Joe Rogan Experience, April 3, 2025

DAVE SMITH: WE HAVE AN UNPRECEDENTED DEBT CRISIS—BUT THEY TELL YOU ELON IS THE PROBLEM!? “The U.S. federal government is the biggest organization in the history of the world. We spend more than any other government in the history of the world has ever spent. We are so far in debt now that the interest on the debt is now, I believe last year it was $1.2 trillion. And it's going up. The interest on the debt is now overtaking the entire budget. If we balanced our budget tomorrow, we still run a trillion-dollar deficit every year just because we owe it on the interest on the debt. This is so obviously a crisis. And then they're trying to convince you that the real crisis is that Elon Musk and a few of his genius nerd buddies want to open the books. How the fuck can you convince anyone of that?” Source: The Joe Rogan Experience, April 3, 2025

Mario Nawfal

121,105 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

I'll tell you the idea I like and I think every taxpayer likes better than this idea: use any excess capital to reduce the national debt. That is the most important thing we could be thinking about right now because it's not just for the people incumbent today, it's the future. Every time interest rates go up or stay where they are right now, it costs more just to pay that debt, much of which is owned by foreigners. We should really focus now on doing two things. One, get to a balanced budget and use any excess cash anywhere to get to that balanced budget and start paying down that debt and that would make even more money come to America.

I'll tell you the idea I like and I think every taxpayer likes better than this idea: use any excess capital to reduce the national debt. That is the most important thing we could be thinking about right now because it's not just for the people incumbent today, it's the future. Every time interest rates go up or stay where they are right now, it costs more just to pay that debt, much of which is owned by foreigners. We should really focus now on doing two things. One, get to a balanced budget and use any excess cash anywhere to get to that balanced budget and start paying down that debt and that would make even more money come to America.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

201,212 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The CDC engaged in a 14 yr cover up of the fact that age is crucial with the MMR shot. They knew autism rates dropped dramatically if it was given after 3yrs of age. As Andrew Wakefield points out - ‘They put millions of American children at risk of serious permanent neurological disease to protect public confidence in vaccine policy makers. And they wonder why we are in such a mess right now.’ The lunatics have been running the asylum!!

The CDC engaged in a 14 yr cover up of the fact that age is crucial with the MMR shot. They knew autism rates dropped dramatically if it was given after 3yrs of age. As Andrew Wakefield points out - ‘They put millions of American children at risk of serious permanent neurological disease to protect public confidence in vaccine policy makers. And they wonder why we are in such a mess right now.’ The lunatics have been running the asylum!!

Kat A 🌸

123,728 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce