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TOM LEE: ANY SPACEX PULLBACK IS GOING TO BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY He won't put a price target on a company where all the growth is in the future: - A target today is almost a guess: it's like discounting 20 years of future value down to now -... show more

Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom)

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132,213 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Peter Thiel: "The value is never a premium on the past. It's always a discount to the future." Most founders walk into a fundraising negotiation anchored to the wrong number. They point to the last round, list everything built since then, and argue for a premium on that progress. Investors push back. The whole conversation becomes a fight over the past. Thiel thinks this framing is conceptually completely wrong. Investors aren't buying your history. They're buying your trajectory. And the moment you understand that, your entire approach to pitching valuation changes. "The way I always think one should try to pitch a company or the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future. The investors are getting to invest at a point that's a lot cheaper than it will be for the share price a year, two, three years from now." He learned this firsthand at PayPal. In late 1999, PayPal closed a round at $45 million. Three months later, they raised again at a $500 million valuation. A 5x jump in a single quarter. The obvious question: how do you convince anyone to accept that? "The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO." That single reframe changed everything. Investors stopped looking backward and started looking forward. "It doesn't matter what happened three months ago. You're getting in at a discount to the IPO." The founder who can paint a compelling picture of where the company is going will always negotiate from a stronger position than one defending where it's been.

Peter Thiel: "The value is never a premium on the past. It's always a discount to the future." Most founders walk into a fundraising negotiation anchored to the wrong number. They point to the last round, list everything built since then, and argue for a premium on that progress. Investors push back. The whole conversation becomes a fight over the past. Thiel thinks this framing is conceptually completely wrong. Investors aren't buying your history. They're buying your trajectory. And the moment you understand that, your entire approach to pitching valuation changes. "The way I always think one should try to pitch a company or the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future. The investors are getting to invest at a point that's a lot cheaper than it will be for the share price a year, two, three years from now." He learned this firsthand at PayPal. In late 1999, PayPal closed a round at $45 million. Three months later, they raised again at a $500 million valuation. A 5x jump in a single quarter. The obvious question: how do you convince anyone to accept that? "The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO." That single reframe changed everything. Investors stopped looking backward and started looking forward. "It doesn't matter what happened three months ago. You're getting in at a discount to the IPO." The founder who can paint a compelling picture of where the company is going will always negotiate from a stronger position than one defending where it's been.

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Tom Lee says buying the SpaceX IPO $SPCX is a good idea and that it won’t mark the top of the market. I disagree. Elon is the GOAT and SpaceX will become one of the greatest companies in the world. But a $1.75T valuation on $18B of revenue is pure FOMO. Highly anticipated IPOs almost always spike hard on day one and then cool off. In 90% of cases, they eventually trade well below their initial entry price. SpaceX won’t be any different. I love the company. I wouldn’t touch it at these prices. Wait for the pullback.

Tom Lee says buying the SpaceX IPO $SPCX is a good idea and that it won’t mark the top of the market. I disagree. Elon is the GOAT and SpaceX will become one of the greatest companies in the world. But a $1.75T valuation on $18B of revenue is pure FOMO. Highly anticipated IPOs almost always spike hard on day one and then cool off. In 90% of cases, they eventually trade well below their initial entry price. SpaceX won’t be any different. I love the company. I wouldn’t touch it at these prices. Wait for the pullback.

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The SpaceX IPO will be the most hyped listing in years. It's also the moment the early investors finally cash out on the public. SpaceX has been private for 20 years. The private equity guys got in early and are sitting on massive gains. A $1M stake is now worth $100M. A $10M stake is now a billion. The problem is their money is locked up. The shares don't trade, so those investors look rich but can't spend a cent of it. The IPO is their way out. They sell their shares, and the people buying them are retail investors like you. So while everyone races to buy at the open, watch what the institutional money does. They’re also not allowed to sell for the first 6 months after it happens, so I’d recommend to wait until then.

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