Tom Lee on Michael Saylor & MicroStrategy $MSTR: "You might think this is reckless but they've created a lot of network value. They are one of the largest holders of $BTC Bitcoin now and ultimately they may become the second largest holder of Bitcoin after the US Government."

Forgive my smooth brained anecdotal analysis but I don't believe any of these coming things have been priced in the Bitcoin yet. The US strategic reserve, other nations adopting it into their monetary system, major institutional participation......all these developments are still very much in their infancy. On a technical basis we can find some potential targets, but Bitcoin has always outperformed even those in the past. Excited to see what the next few years looks like.

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Keywords he mentioned are “as long as bitcoin goes up”. I agree, it will outperform as long as bitcoin goes up. But from November 2021 to Nov 2022, Bitcoin fell from $67k to $15k. When the cycle is over, look out. Those bond holders will want payback.

Always love Tom Lees PoV Will be interesting to see what other markets they capitalize on as crypto starts to grow. I could imagine there would be a lot of consulting requested of them but they seem to offer it for free. Every person who follows what they do just adds to their bag's so it ends up a win-win (if BTC goes up). This is about the bonds but its also First Mover Advantage and I think a lot of people are missing that with MSTR... pair that with how well they can raise and manage money/debt/btc.... Stock price is about future projections right? Hence why MSTR seems to trade for NAV multiples. The Bears Pricing MSTR on an exact BTC price is like saying MSTR is an asset and not a company with First Mover Advantage.

MSTR issues interest free debt securities (convertible bonds) to buy more BTC, BTC goes up, MSTR goes up (ironically by more than BTC’s MC itself but investors don’t give a fuk), rinse and repeat.

US government being number one would be wild

whether the new btc reserve is held by govt or mstr is just semantics at this point

Would you prefer holding the actual $BTC or would you recommend holding a Bitcoin ETF instead?

Interesting take, for sure.

But if Bitcoin tanks back to $60k wouldn’t that put $MSTR in a difficult situation?

I heard analysts on CNBC saying that on a $ per BTC unit basis, buying BTC itself is close to 2x cheaper then buying indirectly via a $MSTR share. In other words, same $ invested directly into BTC buys you 2x more BTC vs investing in MSTR stock. Why not to buy BTC itself?