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Tropical moisture will flow into a stalling front this week. While the exact placement of the greatest rain should be taken with a grain of salt, this model speaks well to the excellent setup for heavy storms.

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Gannon Medwick

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28,827 views • 25 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Tropical moisture + slow front = scattered to numerous heavy rain and storms. Localized flooding is a negative, but this setup is a definite positive from a drought standpoint.
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Tropical moisture + slow front = scattered to numerous heavy rain and storms. Localized flooding is a negative, but this setup is a definite positive from a drought standpoint.

Gannon Medwick

13,275 views • 23 days ago

A big pattern change is coming to Florida this week. The week starts off with typical rain chances, however, a plume of deep tropical moisture will impact the state late in the week into next weekend, bringing a threat of heavy flooding rains. #flwx
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A big pattern change is coming to Florida this week. The week starts off with typical rain chances, however, a plume of deep tropical moisture will impact the state late in the week into next weekend, bringing a threat of heavy flooding rains. #flwx

Dylan Federico

22,448 views • 2 months ago

A surge of tropical moisture associated with the Central American Gyre will being higher rain chances to Florida later this week and into the weekend. The good news is tropical development is not expected at this time in the Gulf at this time. #flwx
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A surge of tropical moisture associated with the Central American Gyre will being higher rain chances to Florida later this week and into the weekend. The good news is tropical development is not expected at this time in the Gulf at this time. #flwx

Dylan Federico

10,878 views • 2 months ago

A parade of storms, including an atmospheric river, will march into the Northwest from the Pacific with drenching rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds into next week.
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A parade of storms, including an atmospheric river, will march into the Northwest from the Pacific with drenching rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds into next week.

AccuWeather

19,370 views • 9 months ago

A firehose of Caribbean moisture is forecast to impact Florida late this week into next week, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 - 5" are expected, with isolated totals over a foot are possible over the next ten days. #flwx
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A firehose of Caribbean moisture is forecast to impact Florida late this week into next week, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 - 5" are expected, with isolated totals over a foot are possible over the next ten days. #flwx

Dylan Federico

110,401 views • 2 months ago

Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropical
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Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropical

Jeff Berardelli

37,118 views • 2 months ago

UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!
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UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!

Matt Devitt

36,299 views • 2 months ago

Rian chances go up on Sunday. Scattered rain & storms will be on and off through the day... Not 100% coverage all day. There will be dry hours. Rain chances climb more late Sunday through Monday morning as a cold front comes in. Heavy rain & gusty winds with some of the storms.
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Rian chances go up on Sunday. Scattered rain & storms will be on and off through the day... Not 100% coverage all day. There will be dry hours. Rain chances climb more late Sunday through Monday morning as a cold front comes in. Heavy rain & gusty winds with some of the storms.

Pete Delkus

21,127 views • 2 months ago

⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.
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⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.

Windy.com

11,854 views • 2 months ago

The tropics are a very moist, humid place. As Tropical #CycloneGabrielle tracks out of the tropics, it will bring all of that moisture (🟣) with it! NZ's complex terrain can further enhance rainfall amounts. This is why there is a concern for over a month's worth of rain.
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The tropics are a very moist, humid place. As Tropical #CycloneGabrielle tracks out of the tropics, it will bring all of that moisture (🟣) with it! NZ's complex terrain can further enhance rainfall amounts. This is why there is a concern for over a month's worth of rain.

NIWA Weather

53,727 views • 3 years ago

TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.
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TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.

Matt Devitt

219,869 views • 29 days ago

An upper level low is forecast to develop near Cuba this weekend. The lurking low is expected to bring a surge of tropical moisture and higher rain chances to Florida through early next week.#flwx
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An upper level low is forecast to develop near Cuba this weekend. The lurking low is expected to bring a surge of tropical moisture and higher rain chances to Florida through early next week.#flwx

Dylan Federico

15,367 views • 2 months ago

Florida here’s comes another surge of moisture! A deep dip in the jet stream will extract more #Gulf moisture, meaning more downpours especially in the northern half of the state. Sunday should be the stormiest day. This is on top of a very rainy stretch! #florida #storm #rain #flood
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Florida here’s comes another surge of moisture! A deep dip in the jet stream will extract more #Gulf moisture, meaning more downpours especially in the northern half of the state. Sunday should be the stormiest day. This is on top of a very rainy stretch! #florida #storm #rain #flood

Jeff Berardelli

15,716 views • 14 days ago

⚠️ WEATHER ALERT: Highly unusual conditions today. A stationary rain band will develop due to a rare atmospheric “stalling” effect in the jet stream. This means: 🌧️ Rain may fall continuously over the exact same spots for hours 🧍‍♂️ Moving just a few metres could take you from dry conditions into heavy showers Stay tuned ☔️🌧️☔️
0:14

⚠️ WEATHER ALERT: Highly unusual conditions today. A stationary rain band will develop due to a rare atmospheric “stalling” effect in the jet stream. This means: 🌧️ Rain may fall continuously over the exact same spots for hours 🧍‍♂️ Moving just a few metres could take you from dry conditions into heavy showers Stay tuned ☔️🌧️☔️

Barra Best

30,969 views • 4 months ago

Flip the rainy season switch! A sight for sore eyes, as FL has endured the worst drought in decades. After a brief dry break Friday, the models consistently show a rapid surge in moisture and a rapid start to wet season, as a long southeast fetch of wind forces tropical moisture from the tropics across the state leading daily downpours starting as early as this weekend/ early next week with East coast morning showers, West coast late day downpours. And consistently humid days. #rain #storms #florida
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Flip the rainy season switch! A sight for sore eyes, as FL has endured the worst drought in decades. After a brief dry break Friday, the models consistently show a rapid surge in moisture and a rapid start to wet season, as a long southeast fetch of wind forces tropical moisture from the tropics across the state leading daily downpours starting as early as this weekend/ early next week with East coast morning showers, West coast late day downpours. And consistently humid days. #rain #storms #florida

Jeff Berardelli

38,473 views • 3 months ago

Monday, July 21, 2025 at 12:20 AM PDT: Southern California's weather this week remains relatively quiet compared to the extreme flooding impacting other parts of the country. However, eyes are now turning toward a developing tropical system off the coasts of Acapulco and Baja California. This system has the potential to enhance monsoonal moisture and influence our region between July 29 and August 6, with the most likely impacts occurring in early August. This period typically marks a westward shift in the monsoonal high-pressure axis, allowing deeper moisture to funnel into Southern California. Our region already saw a brief surge of monsoonal activity late last week (Thursday and Friday), signaling that the pattern may be primed for additional stronger robust events trending. What makes this setup notable is the potential interaction between monsoonal flow and tropical moisture, which could lead to a stronger and more sustained influx of moisture than we've seen so far this season and the escalation of warming of the Pacific Ocean continues. The latest forecast models in the last 72 hours have had consistent and comprehensive satellite trends that continue to be monitored closely as more details emerge over the coming days. Further updates will be issued as confidence increases regarding the track and strength of the strong monsoonal inverted influx and its potential impacts on the region. #CAwx #Monsoon2025 #HurricaneSeason
0:17

Monday, July 21, 2025 at 12:20 AM PDT: Southern California's weather this week remains relatively quiet compared to the extreme flooding impacting other parts of the country. However, eyes are now turning toward a developing tropical system off the coasts of Acapulco and Baja California. This system has the potential to enhance monsoonal moisture and influence our region between July 29 and August 6, with the most likely impacts occurring in early August. This period typically marks a westward shift in the monsoonal high-pressure axis, allowing deeper moisture to funnel into Southern California. Our region already saw a brief surge of monsoonal activity late last week (Thursday and Friday), signaling that the pattern may be primed for additional stronger robust events trending. What makes this setup notable is the potential interaction between monsoonal flow and tropical moisture, which could lead to a stronger and more sustained influx of moisture than we've seen so far this season and the escalation of warming of the Pacific Ocean continues. The latest forecast models in the last 72 hours have had consistent and comprehensive satellite trends that continue to be monitored closely as more details emerge over the coming days. Further updates will be issued as confidence increases regarding the track and strength of the strong monsoonal inverted influx and its potential impacts on the region. #CAwx #Monsoon2025 #HurricaneSeason

Jason D Farhang

11,792 views • 1 year ago

7/12 1:40PM Scattered storms will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening. Not everyone gets rain today. Some of the storms will have gusty winds and very heavy rain.
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7/12 1:40PM Scattered storms will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening. Not everyone gets rain today. Some of the storms will have gusty winds and very heavy rain.

Pete Delkus

15,800 views • 1 month ago

It's been a wet start to the week for some of us🌧️ Whilst brighter skies are now following from the west, heavy rain will continue to affect the southeast into this afternoon. Have you had enough of the recent wetter weather or do you welcome the rain? Let us know👇
0:10

It's been a wet start to the week for some of us🌧️ Whilst brighter skies are now following from the west, heavy rain will continue to affect the southeast into this afternoon. Have you had enough of the recent wetter weather or do you welcome the rain? Let us know👇

Met Office

13,644 views • 2 months ago