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🚨 Truflation has recorded a sharp drop (-0.73%) in U.S. inflation over the past few days. Yes, it is real. 🇺🇸 But what does this mean exactly, and how does it relate to upcoming BLS prints? 📽️ The video explains crystal clear how our inflation rate has consistently led... BLS trend changes throughout 2024—and what this might signal for 2025. But first… why has this drop occurred? According to Truflation data, the biggest drivers behind this move were: 📉 Transportation Costs Stabilizing – Fuel prices, shipping costs, and logistical expenses have eased, reducing inflationary pressure. ⚡ Utilities Prices Cooling – Energy markets have become more stable, slowing the rise in electricity and gas costs. 🏡 Housing Market Adjustments – Rental price increases have moderated, and housing-related costs are no longer surging at the same pace. 🌍 Supply Chain Normalization – Global supply chains have improved, making pricing more predictable in previously disrupted sectors. 💳 Consumer Behavior Adjustments – Higher interest rates and economic conditions have slowed demand, reducing price pressures in key categories. Interpreting the Trend This decline signals a shift in inflationary momentum, but it does not necessarily indicate broad-based deflation. Instead, it reflects: ✅ Easing cost pressures in sectors that previously saw rapid price hikes. ✅ A mathematical effect from year-over-year calculations at the start of the month. To understand where inflation is heading, month-over-month trends will be crucial—determining whether this is part of a sustained disinflationary trend or just a temporary adjustment. So if history rhymes… The BLS typically catches up to us ~45 days later (sometimes even more), unless they get creative with the numbers 🧐. But here’s an important distinction to remember: We don’t aim to replicate BLS numbers—we have our own methodology for calculating CPI. While absolute values won’t match, the trends do. 📈📉 That’s why Truflation is a leading indicator (RT + 30 Million data points + uploaded in the blockchain), helping you anticipate where BLS inflation prints will pivot—and for how long they’ll stay on the same trend. Transparency and real-time data will be critical this year, especially for FED policy decisions. The government’s handling of tariffs and economic policy could have major implications.🌋 And we’ll be here to report it—up to two months before official data drops. — Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸show more

Truflation

141,229 subscribers

254,037 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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11 条评论

Laz 的头像

Laz1 年前

DOGE is working

CrispyBull 的头像

CrispyBull1 年前

Inflation is eating away at national reserves 📉. Some countries are looking at Bitcoin for a fix. Is it a genius move or a risky gamble? 🎲⚖️#Bitcoin #Crypto #Blockchain #GovernmentReserves #BTC

berti123 的头像

berti1231 年前

Great work!

Cascade43 的头像

Cascade431 年前

Great explanation !! @truflation

Sean Gibson 的头像

Sean Gibson1 年前

Great explanation, showcases the economy is defiantly slowing down. It almost ties to the Atlanta Fed GDP drop as well.

Truflation 的头像

Truflation1 年前

Thank you sir, just reporting what we see 🫡 We hope for the best ofc 🇺🇸

Dr00pyDawg 的头像

Dr00pyDawg1 年前

This is beautiful work!

TB🅰️N 的头像

TB🅰️N1 年前

Shit libs in charge homie

futureman 的头像

futureman1 年前

Must be something related to business activities prepping for tariffs effing up the truflation numbers

futureman 的头像

futureman1 年前

Home insurance and electricity bills are at all time highs, your calculations are cooked. Rents keep going up also.

Vital Signs 的头像

Vital Signs1 年前

@DiMartinoBooth I want to shop where Truflation shops.

相关视频

🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸

🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸

Truflation

293,457 次观看 • 1 年前

Talking at Davos WEF, President Trump said core inflation is 1.6%. And indeed, according to our data, year-over-year core inflation was 1.6% yesterday, now even lower at 1.51%, while our headline CPI inflation is at 1.42% today. The official BLS data core CPI inflation is 2.6% for December and 2.7% for headline inflation. Is Donald J. Trump using the Truflation data?

Talking at Davos WEF, President Trump said core inflation is 1.6%. And indeed, according to our data, year-over-year core inflation was 1.6% yesterday, now even lower at 1.51%, while our headline CPI inflation is at 1.42% today. The official BLS data core CPI inflation is 2.6% for December and 2.7% for headline inflation. Is Donald J. Trump using the Truflation data?

Truflation

67,048 次观看 • 7 个月前

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:

The Daily Signal

31,658 次观看 • 6 个月前

As Cathie Wood says, I expect 2026 to be a year of correction, and this will become especially clear once interest rate hikes are back in the conversation. Inflation isn’t nearing the 2% target—in fact, it’s likely to rise again. For now, many companies have absorbed the impact of tariffs themselves, avoiding proportional price increases for consumers. But in the coming months, we’ll start seeing more businesses pass those costs along, raising prices at the end of the chain. What remains to be seen is whether the new FED chairman chosen by Trump will have the ‘power’ to raise interest rates or not 👀

As Cathie Wood says, I expect 2026 to be a year of correction, and this will become especially clear once interest rate hikes are back in the conversation. Inflation isn’t nearing the 2% target—in fact, it’s likely to rise again. For now, many companies have absorbed the impact of tariffs themselves, avoiding proportional price increases for consumers. But in the coming months, we’ll start seeing more businesses pass those costs along, raising prices at the end of the chain. What remains to be seen is whether the new FED chairman chosen by Trump will have the ‘power’ to raise interest rates or not 👀

Daniel

108,029 次观看 • 7 个月前

Why do we have inflation? The Fed tries to force 2% inflation. It wasn’t always this way. “The natural tendency for prices is to go down. If you look at the CPI in 1900 and you look at it in 1800, it was down by 50%. So for a hundred years in America, prices went down. And during that time, we had the Industrial Revolution.” “We had the most rapid period of economic growth in the history of America, which was after the Civil War and into the early 1900s. All the time prices were coming down.” “Today, the Federal Reserve says that we need to have 2 % inflation. Prices have to go up 2 % a year. Why? I mean, why does the cost of living have to go up? Why can't it go down or at least remain the same? And what is the answer to that? What's the rationale for that?” “Well, they have a bunch of BS explanations and it's all to justify the fact that the government wants inflation. It's not that it's good for us. The government needs it.” “It's the way the government raises revenue and repudiates its debts.” Peter Schiff

Why do we have inflation? The Fed tries to force 2% inflation. It wasn’t always this way. “The natural tendency for prices is to go down. If you look at the CPI in 1900 and you look at it in 1800, it was down by 50%. So for a hundred years in America, prices went down. And during that time, we had the Industrial Revolution.” “We had the most rapid period of economic growth in the history of America, which was after the Civil War and into the early 1900s. All the time prices were coming down.” “Today, the Federal Reserve says that we need to have 2 % inflation. Prices have to go up 2 % a year. Why? I mean, why does the cost of living have to go up? Why can't it go down or at least remain the same? And what is the answer to that? What's the rationale for that?” “Well, they have a bunch of BS explanations and it's all to justify the fact that the government wants inflation. It's not that it's good for us. The government needs it.” “It's the way the government raises revenue and repudiates its debts.” Peter Schiff

Wall Street Mav

98,990 次观看 • 4 个月前

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 次观看 • 1 个月前

"You have such wonky data right now, it's just too uncertain to know what this means for rates. If things stay this course, inflation comes in hot next month" Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, on why the Fed can't read this economy right now "What's tough right now is you have such wonky data, because there's so much uncertainty around what's happening with oil prices and the knock-on effects to the supply chain. You get a read like this which is lower than estimates, but last month inflation came in hot. Month to month there's just a lot of uncertainty around where we're actually headed" "That makes it difficult for Warsh and the other members of the Fed to really have an idea of what the new normal is. Are we at war with Iran or not? Is the Strait open or closed? What does that do to prices, the supply chain, and other inputs that make things more or less expensive?" "There was clearly a mandate from President Trump when he nominated Warsh that he wanted rates cut, a lot of that ahead of the US midterms so Republicans could tout that they've brought down the cost of living. But that's not happening, over the long term we're still running a bit hot. It's good to have this lower print, but with the escalation in the Middle East, I'd guess inflation comes in hot next month"

"You have such wonky data right now, it's just too uncertain to know what this means for rates. If things stay this course, inflation comes in hot next month" Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, on why the Fed can't read this economy right now "What's tough right now is you have such wonky data, because there's so much uncertainty around what's happening with oil prices and the knock-on effects to the supply chain. You get a read like this which is lower than estimates, but last month inflation came in hot. Month to month there's just a lot of uncertainty around where we're actually headed" "That makes it difficult for Warsh and the other members of the Fed to really have an idea of what the new normal is. Are we at war with Iran or not? Is the Strait open or closed? What does that do to prices, the supply chain, and other inputs that make things more or less expensive?" "There was clearly a mandate from President Trump when he nominated Warsh that he wanted rates cut, a lot of that ahead of the US midterms so Republicans could tout that they've brought down the cost of living. But that's not happening, over the long term we're still running a bit hot. It's good to have this lower print, but with the escalation in the Middle East, I'd guess inflation comes in hot next month"

The Wolf Of All Streets

29,523 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

Crypto Rover

117,797 次观看 • 21 天前

Yesterday’s increase in Interest rates is not going to do anything to fix the underlying structural imbalances in our economy. It is not going to help build one oil refinery or find a new discovery oil. The reason we have persistent inflation in Australia is because our government is running high immigration, high spending programs alongside chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and manufacturing after decades of privatisation. It is completely absurd that the Australian people are now going to be punished with higher interest rates alongside higher fuel costs. The higher fuel costs is in-itself going to dampen demand by increasing the cost of living so why pour fuel on the fire by increasing the cost of living even more. We are in this mess because of government spending not because Australians are spending too much just to survive. Manipulating interest rates is only dealing with the symptom not the cause. Notwithstanding we can’t solve inflation in the next 30 days, Australia needs to start building more infrastructure and factories and training our children the trades needed to do it. This will increase the supply of essential goods to bring inflation down. People First is the only party with the policies that will do this. We will create an infrastructure bank to fund the infrastructure free from foreign debt and we will bring back the military apprenticeship scheme to train our children how to build and maintain the infrastructure and manufacturing plants. Sign up today at

Yesterday’s increase in Interest rates is not going to do anything to fix the underlying structural imbalances in our economy. It is not going to help build one oil refinery or find a new discovery oil. The reason we have persistent inflation in Australia is because our government is running high immigration, high spending programs alongside chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and manufacturing after decades of privatisation. It is completely absurd that the Australian people are now going to be punished with higher interest rates alongside higher fuel costs. The higher fuel costs is in-itself going to dampen demand by increasing the cost of living so why pour fuel on the fire by increasing the cost of living even more. We are in this mess because of government spending not because Australians are spending too much just to survive. Manipulating interest rates is only dealing with the symptom not the cause. Notwithstanding we can’t solve inflation in the next 30 days, Australia needs to start building more infrastructure and factories and training our children the trades needed to do it. This will increase the supply of essential goods to bring inflation down. People First is the only party with the policies that will do this. We will create an infrastructure bank to fund the infrastructure free from foreign debt and we will bring back the military apprenticeship scheme to train our children how to build and maintain the infrastructure and manufacturing plants. Sign up today at

Gerard Rennick

28,618 次观看 • 5 个月前

#DemsAct #DemVoice1 #wtpBLUE #ONEV1 #FAM46 For anyone puzzled by persistent inflation numbers. PLEASE WAKE UP. THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT It is NOT as Republicans would have you believe, fiscal mismanagement. It’s their rich donors stealing money from you with impunity. This is something Biden has little to no control of. Unless he takes some important and in my view, very necessary action. There is now irrefutable evidence which shows that high corporate profits are a main driver of ongoing inflation. Companies continue to keep prices high even as their inflationary costs drop. Prices for consumers rose by 3.4% over the past year, but input costs for producers increased by just 1%. When business costs rise the cost is passed on in the blink of an eye. When their costs drop they do NOTHING. Corporations are enjoying windfall profits worth $billions as a direct result of their costs dropping while consumer costs remain static and in some cases increase. The imperative action needed is a significant windfall tax based on the difference between input costs plus a normal margin and current consumer costs. Businesses see every global shock like the pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine, as an opportunity to exploit consumers to increase their margins. As a direct result, the Fed increases interest rates and consumer prices remain high. It’s a lose lose for American families, as yet more money is stole from the bottom and the middle to feed the greed of the rich. This is not a conspiracy theory it is a simple fact. Action needs to be taken, otherwise NOTHING WILL CHANGE as everyday Americans pay for the private jets and yachts of the rich.

#DemsAct #DemVoice1 #wtpBLUE #ONEV1 #FAM46 For anyone puzzled by persistent inflation numbers. PLEASE WAKE UP. THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT It is NOT as Republicans would have you believe, fiscal mismanagement. It’s their rich donors stealing money from you with impunity. This is something Biden has little to no control of. Unless he takes some important and in my view, very necessary action. There is now irrefutable evidence which shows that high corporate profits are a main driver of ongoing inflation. Companies continue to keep prices high even as their inflationary costs drop. Prices for consumers rose by 3.4% over the past year, but input costs for producers increased by just 1%. When business costs rise the cost is passed on in the blink of an eye. When their costs drop they do NOTHING. Corporations are enjoying windfall profits worth $billions as a direct result of their costs dropping while consumer costs remain static and in some cases increase. The imperative action needed is a significant windfall tax based on the difference between input costs plus a normal margin and current consumer costs. Businesses see every global shock like the pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine, as an opportunity to exploit consumers to increase their margins. As a direct result, the Fed increases interest rates and consumer prices remain high. It’s a lose lose for American families, as yet more money is stole from the bottom and the middle to feed the greed of the rich. This is not a conspiracy theory it is a simple fact. Action needs to be taken, otherwise NOTHING WILL CHANGE as everyday Americans pay for the private jets and yachts of the rich.

𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰

17,814 次观看 • 2 年前

The November jobs number supports a 25 basis point rate cut, but the data is soft and slightly inaccurate because of the 43-day shutdown. If that hadn’t happened, the trend would point toward higher unemployment, which is one of the Fed’s key mandates. Inflation is still at 3.1%, though, and that puts the Fed in a very difficult position. Every rate cut from here will be heavily scrutinized and debated, and you’re already seeing dissent inside the Fed. That’s what the market is focused on, whether we get more cuts into year end. I look at this purely through the lens of an investor. I invest across all 11 sectors of the S&P, mostly in companies with 5 to 500 employees, so I hear their concerns directly. Input costs are a major issue, especially unresolved tariffs on goods we don’t produce in America, things like bananas, pineapples, and potash. Why tariff things we don’t have? Those costs show up in housing, manufacturing, and across the economy, and that’s a big reason inflation stays elevated. This isn’t just theory, it’s what companies are actually paying.

The November jobs number supports a 25 basis point rate cut, but the data is soft and slightly inaccurate because of the 43-day shutdown. If that hadn’t happened, the trend would point toward higher unemployment, which is one of the Fed’s key mandates. Inflation is still at 3.1%, though, and that puts the Fed in a very difficult position. Every rate cut from here will be heavily scrutinized and debated, and you’re already seeing dissent inside the Fed. That’s what the market is focused on, whether we get more cuts into year end. I look at this purely through the lens of an investor. I invest across all 11 sectors of the S&P, mostly in companies with 5 to 500 employees, so I hear their concerns directly. Input costs are a major issue, especially unresolved tariffs on goods we don’t produce in America, things like bananas, pineapples, and potash. Why tariff things we don’t have? Those costs show up in housing, manufacturing, and across the economy, and that’s a big reason inflation stays elevated. This isn’t just theory, it’s what companies are actually paying.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

59,069 次观看 • 8 个月前

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Jeffrey P. Snider

32,892 次观看 • 2 个月前

BEHIND THE CAPEX BOOM: In an interview with CNBC’s Michael Santoli this week, we explore how to think about the next leg of the AI capex cycle. There’s been a world awash with liquidity for the first half of 2026, and conditions are set to tighten. But this doesn’t need to overly upset the AI buildout. What it does mean, though, is that capex will likely be more expensive. And there are a few reasons for that: 📈 Yields have been elevated and the 10-year is close to 4.8%, a level that’s tended to dent risk appetite. 💰With a higher-for-longer environment plus spreads beginning to widen, this simply increases the cost of borrowing that will support the AI buildout for companies that have increased risk profiles due to pressure on free cash flow. ⚡️The buildout will require more investment in communities. Power, as an example, where there is a real need for more spend. One consideration: Will hyperscalers need to help subsidize the grid in regions with constrained capacity? This is a building idea, top of mind for infrastructure investors. 🧾 The price tag is rising partially because the bill is getting longer. Add supply chain constraints, higher energy costs and a memory shortage and you easily see why a more than $800 billion buildout this year can turn closer to $1.5 trillion for next year. Full conversation in the link. Thank you to CNBCOvertime for having me:

BEHIND THE CAPEX BOOM: In an interview with CNBC’s Michael Santoli this week, we explore how to think about the next leg of the AI capex cycle. There’s been a world awash with liquidity for the first half of 2026, and conditions are set to tighten. But this doesn’t need to overly upset the AI buildout. What it does mean, though, is that capex will likely be more expensive. And there are a few reasons for that: 📈 Yields have been elevated and the 10-year is close to 4.8%, a level that’s tended to dent risk appetite. 💰With a higher-for-longer environment plus spreads beginning to widen, this simply increases the cost of borrowing that will support the AI buildout for companies that have increased risk profiles due to pressure on free cash flow. ⚡️The buildout will require more investment in communities. Power, as an example, where there is a real need for more spend. One consideration: Will hyperscalers need to help subsidize the grid in regions with constrained capacity? This is a building idea, top of mind for infrastructure investors. 🧾 The price tag is rising partially because the bill is getting longer. Add supply chain constraints, higher energy costs and a memory shortage and you easily see why a more than $800 billion buildout this year can turn closer to $1.5 trillion for next year. Full conversation in the link. Thank you to CNBCOvertime for having me:

Sonali Basak

15,060 次观看 • 7 天前

Walmart just cut prices on thousands of items, including Coke and Pepsi. That is not supposed to happen if the inflation story were true. The whole narrative rested on one assumption: companies have pricing power because consumers have income to absorb higher costs. Walmart cutting prices says the opposite. And when the largest retailer in America moves, suppliers, competitors, grocery chains, discounters all get dragged into the same price war. There are two kinds of disinflation. One comes from supply improving and productivity rising, consumers win without any pain. The other comes from demand being too weak to support higher prices, so companies are forced to cut. This is the second kind. Meanwhile the TIPS market has been pricing exactly this for over a year, through the tariff scare, through the energy shock, breakevens never bought the inflation spiral story. Now they have crashed even further. The Fed and mainstream economists are still staring at headline payroll numbers, calling the labor market resilient. The market pricing real money is telling a very different story.

Walmart just cut prices on thousands of items, including Coke and Pepsi. That is not supposed to happen if the inflation story were true. The whole narrative rested on one assumption: companies have pricing power because consumers have income to absorb higher costs. Walmart cutting prices says the opposite. And when the largest retailer in America moves, suppliers, competitors, grocery chains, discounters all get dragged into the same price war. There are two kinds of disinflation. One comes from supply improving and productivity rising, consumers win without any pain. The other comes from demand being too weak to support higher prices, so companies are forced to cut. This is the second kind. Meanwhile the TIPS market has been pricing exactly this for over a year, through the tariff scare, through the energy shock, breakevens never bought the inflation spiral story. Now they have crashed even further. The Fed and mainstream economists are still staring at headline payroll numbers, calling the labor market resilient. The market pricing real money is telling a very different story.

Jeffrey P. Snider

23,965 次观看 • 1 个月前

VIDEO | Talking on whether India will stop buying Russian oil as claimed by the US, foreign secretary Vikram Misri says the country is neither dependent on any single source for this, nor intend to be. He says, "You are aware that India is a net importer in the oil and gas sector. We are a developing economy; we have to be conscious about our resource availability. Naturally, when you are dependent to the extent of 80–85% on an imported resource, you have to have concerns about the possibility of inflation driven by energy costs. So, it’s not surprising therefore that our foremost priority is to safeguard the interests of Indian consumers insofar as energy is concerned—to really ensure that they receive adequate energy at the right price and through reliable and secure supplies. And our import policy insofar as energy is concerned is therefore driven entirely by these objectives. Now, you would also have observed that in recent years, the global economy has faced significant uncertainties which have had a major impact on the stability of global energy markets... We are neither dependent on any single source for this, nor do we intend to be. And it is natural for the mix of sources to vary from time to time, depending on objective market conditions. Our approach is to maintain multiple sources of supply and diversify them as appropriate to ensure stability. Therefore, I would say that the more diversified we are in this area, the more secure we are. So far, as actual sourcing of energy is concerned—again, all of you follow this closely, so you know that the actual sourcing is done by oil companies. Oil companies in the public sector, oil companies in the private sector. And they make decisions based on market conditions. They assess availability at any given point in time, they assess risks, they assess costs in this process. And obviously, all of these companies also have their own internal accountability-related processes to look at and certain fiduciary responsibilities in the market..."

VIDEO | Talking on whether India will stop buying Russian oil as claimed by the US, foreign secretary Vikram Misri says the country is neither dependent on any single source for this, nor intend to be. He says, "You are aware that India is a net importer in the oil and gas sector. We are a developing economy; we have to be conscious about our resource availability. Naturally, when you are dependent to the extent of 80–85% on an imported resource, you have to have concerns about the possibility of inflation driven by energy costs. So, it’s not surprising therefore that our foremost priority is to safeguard the interests of Indian consumers insofar as energy is concerned—to really ensure that they receive adequate energy at the right price and through reliable and secure supplies. And our import policy insofar as energy is concerned is therefore driven entirely by these objectives. Now, you would also have observed that in recent years, the global economy has faced significant uncertainties which have had a major impact on the stability of global energy markets... We are neither dependent on any single source for this, nor do we intend to be. And it is natural for the mix of sources to vary from time to time, depending on objective market conditions. Our approach is to maintain multiple sources of supply and diversify them as appropriate to ensure stability. Therefore, I would say that the more diversified we are in this area, the more secure we are. So far, as actual sourcing of energy is concerned—again, all of you follow this closely, so you know that the actual sourcing is done by oil companies. Oil companies in the public sector, oil companies in the private sector. And they make decisions based on market conditions. They assess availability at any given point in time, they assess risks, they assess costs in this process. And obviously, all of these companies also have their own internal accountability-related processes to look at and certain fiduciary responsibilities in the market..."

Press Trust of India

63,178 次观看 • 6 个月前

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

Reflection🪩

132,195 次观看 • 3 个月前