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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has made peace almost impossible because Iran believes every ceasefire is preparation for the next attack. Col. Douglas Macgregor believes this war stopped being about Iran's nuclear program a long time ago; from Tehran's perspective, it's now about survival. He says every threat, every reversed position, every...

275,238 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Col. Douglas Macgregor: The next Middle East superpower isn't Israel or Iran, it's Turkey. For years, we've been told Iran is an existential threat. Every war, every sanctions package, every military operation has revolved around Tehran. Macgregor thinks that's yesterday's story. His argument is that while the world has been fixated on Iran, Turkey has quietly become the most powerful state in the Middle East, and unlike Iran, it has the economy, the military, the industrial base, the geography, and the long-term ambition to reshape the entire region. He says Ankara isn't thinking about the next six months, it's thinking about the next fifty years. That completely changes the way he views Trump's latest moves. The talk of F-35s, the approval of hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of jet engines, and the sudden warmth toward Erdogan. Macgregor thinks none of this is about rewarding Turkey. It's Washington recognising that Ankara has quietly become too powerful to ignore. He believes Erdogan will happily listen to Trump's compliments, then he'll do whatever serves Turkey's best interests. Because Turkey isn't interested in becoming America's proxy, it's interested in becoming the dominant power in the Middle East. Macgregor argues that's exactly why Israeli ministers have started openly talking about Turkey as the next existential threat. Because for the first time in decades, they are starting to realise that Iran may not be the country that defines the next chapter of the Middle East, but Turkey might. If he's right, we're not watching the end of one conflict. We're watching the birth of an entirely new Middle East. Douglas Macgregor

Mario Nawfal

324,881 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has restarted a war he no longer controls, and Iran intends to make escape painfully difficult Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient. Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again. That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict. At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage. Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences. That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure. His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation. Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts. He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%. Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

280,503 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

306,593 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may have reached the point where every option makes America's position worse. Middle East expert Joshua Landis says Iran isn't just retaliating to U.S. pressure anymore. It's deliberately expanding the battlefield to convince Washington that escalation carries a higher cost than compromise. Start with the recent strikes. An American response inside Iran is followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in Jordan and on ships in Egypt. If Washington turns to economic warfare or tries to blockade Iran, Tehran will simply drag the conflict back into military escalation. Landis agrees. He argues the White House still believes it can force Iran to back down by gradually degrading its economy, missile capabilities and military infrastructure. But every new round of pressure pushes Iran to widen the conflict instead, creating economic pain for America's regional partners and demonstrating that no country is insulated from the consequences. Egypt is the perfect example. Even if American ships are the intended target, attacks near Egypt threaten tourism, Suez Canal traffic and one of the region's most fragile economies. The point isn't necessarily Egypt itself. It's proving that pressure on Iran can quickly become pressure on everyone else. That brings Landis to the real issue: the Strait of Hormuz. He argues this war is ultimately about who controls one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. For decades, American dominance in the Gulf has underpinned its global influence. But Landis says preserving that dominance through military force is becoming increasingly difficult. His argument is that even if Washington steps back, Iran cannot simply shut off global oil forever. Tehran also depends on exporting its own energy, meaning every Gulf state ultimately has an incentive to reach some form of accommodation. The real question isn't whether oil will keep flowing, but whether the United States remains the power that guarantees it. Landis warns that continuing to escalate may actually accelerate the decline Washington is trying to prevent. Joshua Landis

Mario Nawfal

272,598 просмотров • 28 дней назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Iran war isn't nearing an end. It's becoming a permanent, deliberately managed conflict. Most people see two possible outcomes: Either Trump escalates, or he makes a deal with Iran. Geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningsen thinks that's a false choice; he believes Washington is preparing to do both. Fight, pause, negotiate, rearm, and fight again. According to Patrick, the periods of diplomacy are not necessarily designed to produce peace; they're created to buy time. He argues the Pentagon's long-term objective hasn't changed. Continue degrading Iran's military infrastructure, try to weaken Tehran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, and keep applying pressure until its strategic position steadily erodes. Whether that takes months or years. That's why he doesn't expect a sudden breakthrough where Washington simply accepts Iran's demands and walks away. He thinks we're entering a cycle, because this war is no longer just about Iran. It's becoming a contest over the entire trade network linking Iran, Russia, China and India. Hormuz is only one front. The Caspian Sea, the north-south trade corridor, China's Belt and Road Initiative, strategic ports. and critical pipelines are all on the board. In Patrick's view, Washington isn't simply trying to pressure Tehran; it's trying to prevent an alternative Eurasian economic system from emerging outside U.S influence. That also explains why the battlefield keeps expanding. Patrick Henningsen

Mario Nawfal

334,821 просмотров • 27 дней назад

⚠️ Col. Macgregor: Iran Negotiations Are a Pause, Not Peace In this new Deep Dive clip, Col. Douglas Macgregor (Douglas Macgregor) lays out why the Iran war is not over — only paused — and why Trump’s latest threats to “finish the job” won’t force Tehran to concede. Macgregor explains that the 60‑day negotiation window was doomed from the start. “If we look at those 14 points… is there really any chance whatsoever that we would ever willingly sign up for all 14?” Agreeing to them, he says, would be a “tacit admission that we were defeated militarily.” He also breaks down how Israel’s objectives shifted after their initial plan collapsed. “The principal Israeli puppet was supposed to be the crown prince… that failed.” What remains, Macgregor warns, is the push for the “utter and complete destruction of Iran.” Trump’s talk of bombing infrastructure doesn’t change that reality. As Macgregor puts it, “We’re talking about killing civilians, destroying lots of infrastructure… leaving Iran in complete ruins.” These are not decisive military targets — they’re signals of a preferred outcome that has nothing to do with diplomacy. His bottom line is stark: “This is not over. We are at pause.” The Iran war, the Middle East conflict, and U.S. strategy are all entering a far more dangerous phase. If you want to understand what’s happening — not the headlines — watch the full clip. Watch here. ⬇️ 🏷️#IranWar #MiddleEastConflict #USStrategy #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #DouglasMacgregor #DanielDavisDeepDive #ForeignPolicy #Iran #StraitOfHormuz

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

11,584 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump needs Iran to give him a face-saving victory, but they've deliberately decided to deny him one. Trump expected this war to end within weeks. Instead, months later, he's venting at aides, insulting Iranian leaders, and growing increasingly frustrated that the war refuses to end. Military analyst Elijah Magnier says that's because Trump fundamentally misunderstood Iran from the very beginning. In his view, every insult, every new strike, and every failed ultimatum only convinces Tehran that giving Trump a face-saving victory would guarantee another war in the future. So they've made a strategic decision: Don't give him the ladder. That's why Elijah believes Tehran rejected another temporary ceasefire. From the Iranian perspective, Trump launched the war, walked away from previous commitments, kept sanctions in place, and tried to change the facts on the ground while negotiations were supposedly continuing. Why help him now? Elijah says the real battle isn't over missiles; it's over the Strait of Hormuz. Not because Iran just wants to collect shipping fees, but because Hormuz has become the leverage that can force Washington to negotiate issues it has refused to address for decades: Sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, and America's wider military role in the region. Until those issues are addressed, Elijah believes Iran has no incentive to surrender its strongest bargaining chip. And right now, Tehran has made one thing absolutely clear: It has no intention of rescuing Trump from the war he chose to start. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

282,783 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is deliberately making every American attack more expensive, and Trump has trapped himself in a war where bombing only strengthens Tehran’s negotiating hand. Everyone has been asking why Iran's demands suddenly appear so much tougher. Why push for greater control over the Strait of Hormuz and higher transit fees just when the war seems to be ending? Geopolitical analyst Prof. Glenn Diesen says there may be a very deliberate strategy behind it. For decades, America has operated with what he calls escalation dominance. If diplomacy stalls, Washington bombs, and if the bombing fails, Washington returns to negotiations expecting roughly the same deal it had before. Iran's objective now, he argues, is to break that cycle forever. The message is simple: Every time America attacks, the price of peace goes up. That's why Prof. Diesen believes Trump's latest bombing campaign was such a strategic mistake. Nothing fundamental had changed. Iran hadn't suddenly become weaker, the U.S hadn't discovered a new military advantage, and its long-range missile stockpiles were even more depleted than before. Yet Trump believed another round of strikes would squeeze additional concessions out of Tehran. Instead, Prof. Diesen argues, every bomb produced the opposite effect. Iranian public opinion hardened, and the political pressure inside Iran shifted toward demanding more, not less. Trump wasn't improving the original MOU, he was making it progressively worse for himself. And Prof. Diesen believes this goes far beyond the immediate negotiations. If Iran succeeds in establishing this principle, then Washington loses one of its biggest strategic advantages. Military force stops being a low-cost bargaining tool, and becomes something that leaves America weaker every time it is used. That's also why Prof. Diesen believes the fight over the Strait of Hormuz matters so much. It isn't just about shipping; it's about who writes the rules of the Gulf after this war ends. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

275,135 просмотров • 20 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just declared economic war on anyone keeping Iran alive. There's just one HUGE problem: China. Trump's “Economic D-Day” is an attempt to financially isolate Iran on a scale Washington says has never been attempted before. And Treasury Sec. Bessent made the objective brutally clear: They want to collapse the Iranian regime. That means targeting not just Iran, but the countries, banks and businesses that continue trading with it. Which brings Washington directly into collision with Beijing. China buys the overwhelming majority of Iran's shipped oil. So if Trump genuinely intends to economically strangle Tehran, eventually he has to answer the question everyone is asking: What happens when China refuses to stop? He faces two choices: Don't enforce the sanctions aggressively against China, and Tehran retains the economic lifeline Washington is trying to sever. Enforce them, and what began as an economic war against Iran starts becoming an economic confrontation with the world's second-largest economy. And China isn't Iran. Beijing has economic weapons of its own: Rare earths, manufacturing, critical supply chains, and, crucially, an alternative financial architecture it's spent years developing precisely because it never wanted Washington to possess a permanent veto over Chinese commerce. That's the part of this story that could become far more consequential than whatever happens in Hormuz. America's greatest economic weapon isn't an aircraft carrier, it's the dollar. Access to the dollar system gives Washington an extraordinary ability to punish governments, banks and companies almost anywhere on Earth. But that power only remains overwhelming for as long as the rest of the world has no viable alternative. Every time Washington weaponises it, it creates another incentive to build one. And Trump is now threatening to demonstrate that vulnerability on an enormous scale. China doesn't need to overthrow the dollar tomorrow; it just needs enough infrastructure to continue trading when Washington says: Stop, or else. And once that infrastructure exists, other countries gain access to the same insurance policy. Trump's war on Iran exposed the limits of American military power. His economic war may be about to expose the limits of America's financial power too. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

536,070 просмотров • 7 дней назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning the war into a global energy conflict, and each day that passes increasingly favors Tehran Most people still think this war will be decided by airstrikes, missiles, or whichever side destroys more military targets. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert thinks that's yesterday's way of looking at it; the real battlefield is energy. Every additional day that the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted creates costs that spread far beyond the Middle East. Higher energy prices, more expensive shipping, pressure on agriculture, manufacturing, and global supply chains. Even if the shooting stopped tomorrow, those economic effects wouldn't disappear overnight. And that's exactly why Brandon believes time increasingly favours Tehran. Iran doesn't need to defeat the U.S military; it simply needs to keep imposing economic costs that Washington, its allies and the global economy become less willing to absorb. That's the strategic shift he believes many people still haven't recognised. The U.S isn't fighting a conventional war of conquest; it's trying to restore normal trade, shipping and energy flows. Iran's objective is much simpler: Prevent that from happening. The longer disruption continues, the more pressure builds on Washington to either negotiate or dramatically escalate. Trump would probably prefer a negotiated settlement if it preserved U.S interests. Iran also wants a deal, but on terms that recognise the leverage it has created. The obstacle, in Brandon's view, is that Israel's strategic objectives are much broader than Washington's. As long as those objectives remain misaligned, every diplomatic opening becomes harder to turn into an actual agreement. That's why he thinks this conflict is becoming more dangerous, not less. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

273,838 просмотров • 28 дней назад

🚨🇺🇸🕊️🇮🇷 America's top military officer is reportedly looking for an exit from the Iran war, warning that further escalation could backfire on Washington. Gen. Dan Caine is said to believe that airpower alone will not be enough to defeat Iran, while Israel has pushed strongly for a broader campaign. According to CNN, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine has been actively seeking an "off-ramp" from the conflict and ways to prevent the United States from being drawn into an even larger war. "Caine is looking for an off-ramp," one source told CNN. Caine reportedly believes that every major escalation option available to Washington carries serious risks and could ultimately backfire, while an air campaign alone is unlikely to produce a decisive defeat of Iran. Another source said Caine's position is largely driven by his desire to protect the U.S. military from being pulled into a broader and potentially far more costly conflict. At the same time, Israel has strongly advocated further escalation, according to the report. President Donald Trump remains opposed to deploying American ground forces inside Iran and has signaled that he believes sustained airstrikes could force Tehran to accept a deal on U.S. terms. However, CNN reports that Caine and other senior members of the Trump administration privately consider that outcome unlikely and have instead been developing alternative options that remain within the president's parameters. The reported divide highlights the strategic dilemma facing Washington: escalating further could dramatically increase the military and political costs of the war, while airpower alone may not be sufficient to force Tehran into accepting U.S. demands. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

49,628 просмотров • 19 дней назад