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Trump is like a broken record at this point, and he's obviously playing with crude oil prices Trump says the US now has total control over the Strait of Hormuz, land areas included, and that Iran isn't ready to make the right deal. Worth remembering how much oil moves...

18,558 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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The US is about to charge $30 million per tanker to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Trump just declared the US the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and said it will take a 20% cut on all cargo passing through. Here is what that actually means. A fully loaded supertanker carries about 2 million barrels of oil. At $75 a barrel, that cargo is worth roughly $150 million. A 20% fee on that is $30 million. Per ship. Per crossing. Now compare that to what Iran was charging. Iran's toll has been running at $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel. On a $150 million cargo, that is about 1.3%. Trump called that toll unacceptable. His replacement is roughly 15 times more expensive. The scale of this is what nobody is talking about. Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil crossed Hormuz every single day. At $75 oil, that is $1.52 billion of crude moving through the strait daily. A 20% cut on that comes to roughly $304 million a day. That is about $111 billion a year. For comparison, Iran's entire toll system was projected to earn $1 billion to $2 billion a year at best. The US plan would collect more than 50 times that. There is no precedent for this anywhere in global trade. The Suez Canal charges roughly $300,000 to $700,000 per vessel. The Panama Canal is similar. Both are man-made canals that countries built and maintain. Hormuz is a natural waterway. Under international law, ships have a right of transit passage through it. That is the exact legal argument the US used against Iran's toll. And the cost does not land on the US. It lands on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, who ship the oil. And on China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who buy it. A $30 million fee per tanker works out to $15 per barrel. That gets passed straight into the price of crude. Oil is already up over 4% today. The strait that was supposed to reopen and lower prices is now being turned into the most expensive stretch of water on earth.

The Macro Paper

63,688 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад