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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may seriously be considering NUKING Iran because conventional victory over them is slipping out of reach!! According to his former lawyer, Robert Barnes, this is now the third time Trump has seriously contemplated using nuclear weapons during the conflict. He says Trump considered the option around April...

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Trump's Fmr. Lawyer Robert Barnes says Trump thinks he's escalating to make Iran capitulate, but in reality, Tehran has learned how to play him. That is what makes this moment so dangerous. Trump appears to believe the war can still be ended quickly if he just applies a little more pressure and moves further up the escalation ladder. Then wait for Iran to surrender, but Robert says Iran is never going to give him that. For Trump, this is a war he wants to finish on favorable terms; for Iran, it's existential. That means Washington and Tehran are not operating with the same tolerance for pain, the same timeline, or the same definition of victory. And Tehran now understands the man across the table better than he understands himself. Iran has watched Trump repeatedly convince himself that another strike will finally produce the submission the previous strikes failed to achieve. Then, when the opposite happens, he becomes frustrated and escalates again. Iran appears to be exploiting that weakness with a disciplined tit-for-tat strategy rather than random escalation or total war. Each move raises the cost without immediately giving Trump the clean pretext he might want for unlimited escalation. Robert thinks Iran is studying his psychology and asking one question before every major action: Will this provoke him too early, or will it punish and humiliate him at exactly the right moment? That distinction is crucial because humiliation may be Trump’s greatest vulnerability. Robert Barnes

Mario Nawfal

374,241 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Trump's Fmr. Lawyer Robert Barnes says he's no longer fighting Iran to achieve a strategic objective; Trump's fighting to force Tehran to kneel, and he may destroy MAGA trying. He says Trump watched the enormous crowds turn out for Khamenei's funeral and became personally agitated by it. He had convinced himself Iran's leadership was hated, that the regime was weak, and that a little more pressure would finally make the Iranian people turn on it. Instead, millions came into the streets, and Robert says Trump took it almost as a personal insult. And from there, the strategy became brutally simple: Make Iran cower. Trump tried to reopen the Strait of Hormuz's Omani shipping lane. Iran had repeatedly warned it would attack vessels using it before the dispute was resolved. Trump apparently convinced himself they wouldn't, then Iran did exactly what it said it would do. Trump became enraged and hit back, Iran kept fighting, Trump escalated again, but Iran still didn't capitulate, so Trump decided to hit harder. Robert says this has been the same failed theory of victory for months. The problem is virtually everyone around Trump who understands Iran has reportedly told him the same thing, but he ignored them. Robert says Trump can now imagine only two outcomes: Iran cowers before him, or America conquers Iran. That's why compromise keeps collapsing. But while Trump waits for Iran to break, something else is breaking instead: MAGA. Robert says the older Fox News Republican base is still with Trump, but the younger, independent, podcast-driven, anti-war wing of MAGA is increasingly getting off the train. He says many of them briefly came back after the MOU, then he restarted the war. Robert calls it a "nightmare version of Groundhog Day." The same bombing, the same promises that Iran is days from capitulation, the same excuses. And he thinks the political consequences could be catastrophic. Robert Barnes

Mario Nawfal

350,328 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is now trapped in a war he can't win, easily leave, or escalate without falling into Iran's trap America went to war over Tehran's nuclear program, yet months later, U.S Tomahawks are hitting Iranian islands because Washington still can’t force open the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier says Trump has ended up exactly where Iran wants him. The nuclear program has disappeared from the negotiations, so has Iran’s missile program, and even its support for regional allies is no longer the immediate issue. The fight has come down to something much more fundamental: who controls safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And Elijah argues that's a fight Iran is uniquely equipped to drag out. America can bomb radars, launchers and facilities along Iran’s coast, and it can clear mines and escort tankers. But Iran only needs a few drones, missiles or mines to demonstrate that Washington still cannot guarantee safe navigation. Every time America declares the Strait secure, Tehran gets another opportunity to prove it isn't. Now Trump is reportedly considering periodic strikes, but what will that achieve? Iran already considers itself at war, so more bombing gives Tehran another opportunity to retaliate, disrupt shipping and keep the economic and political cost rising. Unless those bombs can reopen Hormuz and force Tehran to concede, Trump isn't demonstrating that he has an answer. He's showing that he's run out of them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

296,535 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s real problem isn’t finding an off-ramp; it’s finding one that doesn’t look like he lost the Iran war He could end it tomorrow, but what happens the morning after, when Trump has to explain why Iran is still standing, Tehran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S military failed to impose Washington's will? Scott Horton believes Trump has already had multiple opportunities to declare victory and walk away, but every time, Washington found another reason it couldn't leave. Every additional objective made the eventual exit harder, because now the consequences of the war are much bigger than Iran's nuclear facilities. And Scott argues decades of U.S policy intended to weaken Tehran have repeatedly achieved the opposite. George W. Bush destroyed Saddam Hussein, Iran's greatest regional enemy, and Iraq subsequently moved deeper into Tehran's orbit, and the Houthis emerged as a formidable regional force. Now Trump has done something Scott thinks may be even more damaging: He tested the assumption of overwhelming U.S military power against Iran and exposed its limits. And that's why walking away becomes so politically difficult. Leaving doesn't just mean ending a war; it means acknowledging that the old order isn't coming back. And the longer Trump fights to avoid being remembered as the president who lost the Iran war, the greater the risk he becomes the president remembered for something much worse. Scott Horton

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233,534 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump only achieved a partial military success, and must now find an off-ramp before Iran turns Hormuz into a midterm disaster Fmr Green Beret and political analyst Nick Freitas supports military action to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He also believes the recent campaign inflicted real damage. Iran's conventional navy has been badly degraded, its ballistic missile programme has taken significant hits, its proxy network has been weakened, and its nuclear programme has been set back. But none of that solved the one problem that now matters most: The Strait of Hormuz. Nick argues Iran only needs to retain enough missiles, drones and small boats to convince commercial shipping that the Strait is too dangerous. And that gives Tehran leverage Washington still hasn't removed. Nick believes the Iranian leadership understands something every major American adversary has learned since Vietnam. You don't have to defeat the U.S military; you only have to outlast American politics, and that creates a big problem for Trump. He believes the administration achieved partial success against several military objectives, but it may not have enough time to achieve all of them before domestic politics starts dictating foreign policy. That's why Nick believes an off-ramp now makes more sense than chasing objectives that could take years to accomplish. In his view, Trump should reopen the Strait, bring energy prices down, and refocus on domestic priorities, and only then pursue the longer-term challenge of containing Iran without becoming trapped in another endless Middle Eastern conflict. Nick doesn't believe America's military has suddenly become weak; he thinks the battlefield has changed. A cheap drone doesn't need to destroy an aircraft carrier; it only needs to threaten a commercial tanker. That's the asymmetry. America can dominate the battlefield while Iran still shapes the political outcome. Nick Freitas

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