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“Trump said: 🔸Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles to target the US 🔸It has resumed nuclear activities 🔸32,000 protesters were killed These are the clear signs that he has made up his mind to attack the regime.” My comments two days ago.

42,042 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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⭕️ Energy Analyst: Iran Has Trump “By the Throat” on Hormuz and Knows It Robert McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House energy adviser, told Bloomberg that Iran is “dug in” and believes it is winning the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — and that the U.S. has limited good options to respond. 🔸On Iran’s strategy: “Their leadership is fractured, but it’s functioning. They know they have President Trump by the throat here. Their strategy is just wait for those higher oil prices to soften up the president.” 🔸On Iran shut-ins: McNally estimated Iran has one to two months before it faces major forced production cuts, depending on how much inland storage capacity remains. “Even if we see Kharg Island fill up and stop loading tankers, they still may be able to avoid or delay shut-ins if they have inland tank farms.” 🔸On U.S. export restrictions: McNally put the probability at 35% if gasoline approaches $5 a gallon this summer, calling it counterproductive but not ruleable-out under political pressure. 🔸 On U.S. domestic relief measures: McNally called the administration’s fuel waivers “a drop in the bucket” against what he described as “the largest oil disruption in history” — representing 15-20% of global supply. 🔸On what the U.S. should do militarily: McNally said Washington needs to begin active suppression of Iran’s fast attack boats, minelaying vessels, and coastal missiles, something he said should have started “on the first day.” He noted the reported Trump kill order (via Truth Social) on the fast attack craft are a step in the right direction, but said Iran appears to still be laying mines.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ 🔸🔸 On how Hormuz ends: McNally said there are only two ways out — a ceasefire that guarantees free navigation, or a U.S. military campaign to forcibly reopen the strait. He estimates the latter would take at least four weeks “if you start it and stick with it” — a timeline, he said, the U.S. has not yet committed to.

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60,762 次观看 • 4 个月前