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Trump's economy is being held up by a massive AI bubble. A recent study found that of 300 companies that owned generative AI tools, 95% reported zero return on their investments. We will not entertain a bailout of these companies should this bubble pop.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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1,318,131 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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BREAKING: AOC just said that there is a massive economic bubble from AI stocks. She said that Congress should not entertain a bailout.

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AOC: Trump has been saying the economy is booming, but it’s really only seven tech companies. They’re driving this growth in just one sector: AI. So the entire economic growth can be tracked down to seven companies and their AI expansion. Forty percent of economic growth is attributed to these companies alone, and 80% of stock gains this year came from AI companies. People are justifying these levels of investment because of the promises CEOs make — that there will be a return on that investment. For a company like OpenAI, their valuation is based on the expectation that they’re going to figure out how to make a profit off this, and they haven’t. Generating this increased human dependency that can be mined — people’s deepest fears, emotional content — can all be mined for this empty promise that we’re getting from these companies in the pursuit of profit. The reason I bring all of this up is that the exposure to this industry and this investment, I fear, has reached broad levels of the American economy. We’re talking about 40% of growth being attributed to that sector alone, and it has not turned a profit. We’re talking about a massive economic bubble. Depending on the exposure of that bubble, we could be facing 2008-style threats to economic stability.

AOC: Trump has been saying the economy is booming, but it’s really only seven tech companies. They’re driving this growth in just one sector: AI. So the entire economic growth can be tracked down to seven companies and their AI expansion. Forty percent of economic growth is attributed to these companies alone, and 80% of stock gains this year came from AI companies. People are justifying these levels of investment because of the promises CEOs make — that there will be a return on that investment. For a company like OpenAI, their valuation is based on the expectation that they’re going to figure out how to make a profit off this, and they haven’t. Generating this increased human dependency that can be mined — people’s deepest fears, emotional content — can all be mined for this empty promise that we’re getting from these companies in the pursuit of profit. The reason I bring all of this up is that the exposure to this industry and this investment, I fear, has reached broad levels of the American economy. We’re talking about 40% of growth being attributed to that sector alone, and it has not turned a profit. We’re talking about a massive economic bubble. Depending on the exposure of that bubble, we could be facing 2008-style threats to economic stability.

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I can't find a sector of the economy that isn't using AI now. Every single sector, including all the small companies I invest in, is using an AI app and is spending more on AI applications than they did 18 months ago. It's a productivity tool and a margin enhancer. So this idea that it's a bubble in the sense that all these companies don't have earnings yet, it's a race to see who's gonna deliver the prize and I bet on all of them.

I can't find a sector of the economy that isn't using AI now. Every single sector, including all the small companies I invest in, is using an AI app and is spending more on AI applications than they did 18 months ago. It's a productivity tool and a margin enhancer. So this idea that it's a bubble in the sense that all these companies don't have earnings yet, it's a race to see who's gonna deliver the prize and I bet on all of them.

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Stepping outside my Stanford/Google/Waymo research bubble and sitting with real American companies made me realize why the bulk of the economy was not automatable by software or AI. We needed something new that is neither strictly code or AI, something that can flex but deliver reliable and affordable results to the biggest companies in the world. TBPN Poetic

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Elon Musk says AI companies should meet regularly to discuss AI safety. He also says competition "keeps each other honest." We agree. Competition is essential. But when the AI race is dominated by a handful of billionaires and companies, the balance of power becomes increasingly concentrated. The future of humanity shouldn't be decided by a few people in boardrooms. It should be shaped by all of us. We should all be in the conversation. That's why we're building Action Model. A community-owned AI alternative where anyone can earn a fractional stake based on the value they contribute. AI is inevitable. A fairer AI future is still a choice.

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Gavin Baker built a massive position in $ALAB around the AI infrastructure theme, and the stock has now crossed $300. He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble. He expresses this thesis behind many of his top holdings, including $NVDA, $MU, and $AMZN.

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.Mohamed A. El-Erian believes we are in a "rational" AI bubble: "The good news is that it's a construct that will make us more innovative, more competitive. The bad news is there will be tears, there will be losses because elements of it are elements of a bubble."

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The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

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