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Trump's economy is being held up by a massive AI bubble. A recent study found that of 300 companies that owned generative AI tools, 95% reported zero return on their investments. We will not entertain a bailout of these companies should this bubble pop.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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1,318,173 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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AOC: Trump has been saying the economy is booming, but it’s really only seven tech companies. They’re driving this growth in just one sector: AI. So the entire economic growth can be tracked down to seven companies and their AI expansion. Forty percent of economic growth is attributed to these companies alone, and 80% of stock gains this year came from AI companies. People are justifying these levels of investment because of the promises CEOs make — that there will be a return on that investment. For a company like OpenAI, their valuation is based on the expectation that they’re going to figure out how to make a profit off this, and they haven’t. Generating this increased human dependency that can be mined — people’s deepest fears, emotional content — can all be mined for this empty promise that we’re getting from these companies in the pursuit of profit. The reason I bring all of this up is that the exposure to this industry and this investment, I fear, has reached broad levels of the American economy. We’re talking about 40% of growth being attributed to that sector alone, and it has not turned a profit. We’re talking about a massive economic bubble. Depending on the exposure of that bubble, we could be facing 2008-style threats to economic stability.

AOC: Trump has been saying the economy is booming, but it’s really only seven tech companies. They’re driving this growth in just one sector: AI. So the entire economic growth can be tracked down to seven companies and their AI expansion. Forty percent of economic growth is attributed to these companies alone, and 80% of stock gains this year came from AI companies. People are justifying these levels of investment because of the promises CEOs make — that there will be a return on that investment. For a company like OpenAI, their valuation is based on the expectation that they’re going to figure out how to make a profit off this, and they haven’t. Generating this increased human dependency that can be mined — people’s deepest fears, emotional content — can all be mined for this empty promise that we’re getting from these companies in the pursuit of profit. The reason I bring all of this up is that the exposure to this industry and this investment, I fear, has reached broad levels of the American economy. We’re talking about 40% of growth being attributed to that sector alone, and it has not turned a profit. We’re talking about a massive economic bubble. Depending on the exposure of that bubble, we could be facing 2008-style threats to economic stability.

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I can't find a sector of the economy that isn't using AI now. Every single sector, including all the small companies I invest in, is using an AI app and is spending more on AI applications than they did 18 months ago. It's a productivity tool and a margin enhancer. So this idea that it's a bubble in the sense that all these companies don't have earnings yet, it's a race to see who's gonna deliver the prize and I bet on all of them.

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The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

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