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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s real problem isn’t finding an off-ramp; it’s finding one that doesn’t look like he lost the Iran war He could end it tomorrow, but what happens the morning after, when Trump has to explain why Iran is still standing, Tehran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, and... the U.S military failed to impose Washington's will? Scott Horton believes Trump has already had multiple opportunities to declare victory and walk away, but every time, Washington found another reason it couldn't leave. Every additional objective made the eventual exit harder, because now the consequences of the war are much bigger than Iran's nuclear facilities. And Scott argues decades of U.S policy intended to weaken Tehran have repeatedly achieved the opposite. George W. Bush destroyed Saddam Hussein, Iran's greatest regional enemy, and Iraq subsequently moved deeper into Tehran's orbit, and the Houthis emerged as a formidable regional force. Now Trump has done something Scott thinks may be even more damaging: He tested the assumption of overwhelming U.S military power against Iran and exposed its limits. And that's why walking away becomes so politically difficult. Leaving doesn't just mean ending a war; it means acknowledging that the old order isn't coming back. And the longer Trump fights to avoid being remembered as the president who lost the Iran war, the greater the risk he becomes the president remembered for something much worse. Scott Hortonshow more

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has restarted a war he no longer controls, and Iran intends to make escape painfully difficult Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient. Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again. That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict. At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage. Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences. That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure. His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation. Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts. He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%. Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has restarted a war he no longer controls, and Iran intends to make escape painfully difficult Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient. Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again. That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict. At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage. Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences. That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure. His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation. Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts. He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%. Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

280,503 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer

Mario Nawfal

380,398 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

317,382 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨🇺🇸 WHY THE U.S. MILITARY POWER FACES "RAPID EXHAUSTION" Scott warns of the imminent collapse of American military capabilities, predicted to be measured in weeks as the conflict escalates. While the U.S. and Israel seek regime change, he highlights that Iran has immediately targeted U.S. bases in the UAE and Qatar, bypassing traditional escalation ladders. He signals a brutal new reality: with Tehran under fire, Iran views this as an existential war and may target Gulf city centers to shatter the fragile stability of regional U.S. allies. Full interview with Scott Ritter below

🚨🇺🇸 WHY THE U.S. MILITARY POWER FACES "RAPID EXHAUSTION" Scott warns of the imminent collapse of American military capabilities, predicted to be measured in weeks as the conflict escalates. While the U.S. and Israel seek regime change, he highlights that Iran has immediately targeted U.S. bases in the UAE and Qatar, bypassing traditional escalation ladders. He signals a brutal new reality: with Tehran under fire, Iran views this as an existential war and may target Gulf city centers to shatter the fragile stability of regional U.S. allies. Full interview with Scott Ritter below

Mario Nawfal

319,432 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

469,588 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may end Iran war without nuclear deal Trump has privately told senior aides he could be willing to end the war with Iran without a nuclear agreement if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, according to WSJ. But Iran’s sweeping new demands are making Trump’s search for an exit far more complicated. The Strait of Hormuz could now be the key bargaining chip in ending the conflict.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may end Iran war without nuclear deal Trump has privately told senior aides he could be willing to end the war with Iran without a nuclear agreement if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, according to WSJ. But Iran’s sweeping new demands are making Trump’s search for an exit far more complicated. The Strait of Hormuz could now be the key bargaining chip in ending the conflict.

War Radar

20,671 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Professor Stephen Walt says Trump restarted the Iran war without changing a single thing that caused America to lose the first round. The bombing failed before, Iran still controls the same leverage, and Tehran remains willing to endure more pain than Washington. Yet Trump has returned to the same strategy, apparently expecting surrender this time. Prof. Walt says that's the central flaw. The first bombing campaign didn't force Iran to capitulate; instead, the U.S ended up signing the MoU because the economic consequences of the war were becoming too severe to ignore. It wasn't a good agreement from Washington's perspective; it was full of ambiguities, but it stopped the bleeding. Then, according to Prof. Walt, the Trump administration tried to quietly work around one of the agreement's most important provisions: Article Five. The part dealing with Iran's role in managing access to the Strait of Hormuz. The administration began encouraging ships to use the Omani route, as far from Iranian waters as possible. Iran saw that as a direct attempt to undermine the agreement and, more importantly, strip away what had become its greatest source of leverage. So it attacked shipping, America bombed back, and suddenly everyone was right back where they started. America is fighting a war of choice; Iran is fighting what it believes is a war for survival. If Tehran believes the objective is regime change, then almost any sacrifice becomes worth making. That's why Prof. Walt doesn't expect Iran to suddenly cave simply because the bombing has resumed. Trump can still walk away from the war, but to do so means accepting that the U.S will be in a worse position than before it began. When you start an unnecessary war, and it goes badly, you don't get to negotiate from a position of strength; you negotiate from the position you've been left with. And Prof. Walt thinks the sooner Washington accepts that, the sooner this war has a chance of ending. Stephen Walt

Professor Stephen Walt says Trump restarted the Iran war without changing a single thing that caused America to lose the first round. The bombing failed before, Iran still controls the same leverage, and Tehran remains willing to endure more pain than Washington. Yet Trump has returned to the same strategy, apparently expecting surrender this time. Prof. Walt says that's the central flaw. The first bombing campaign didn't force Iran to capitulate; instead, the U.S ended up signing the MoU because the economic consequences of the war were becoming too severe to ignore. It wasn't a good agreement from Washington's perspective; it was full of ambiguities, but it stopped the bleeding. Then, according to Prof. Walt, the Trump administration tried to quietly work around one of the agreement's most important provisions: Article Five. The part dealing with Iran's role in managing access to the Strait of Hormuz. The administration began encouraging ships to use the Omani route, as far from Iranian waters as possible. Iran saw that as a direct attempt to undermine the agreement and, more importantly, strip away what had become its greatest source of leverage. So it attacked shipping, America bombed back, and suddenly everyone was right back where they started. America is fighting a war of choice; Iran is fighting what it believes is a war for survival. If Tehran believes the objective is regime change, then almost any sacrifice becomes worth making. That's why Prof. Walt doesn't expect Iran to suddenly cave simply because the bombing has resumed. Trump can still walk away from the war, but to do so means accepting that the U.S will be in a worse position than before it began. When you start an unnecessary war, and it goes badly, you don't get to negotiate from a position of strength; you negotiate from the position you've been left with. And Prof. Walt thinks the sooner Washington accepts that, the sooner this war has a chance of ending. Stephen Walt

Mario Nawfal

265,657 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.

Mario Nawfal

366,811 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

Trump said Israel wasn't going to strike Iran. Israel struck Iran anyway. Was Trump lying, or has Netanyahu made it clear that even the President of the United States doesn't get the final say? For all the talk of Iran being weakened, it is Israel and Washington that increasingly look stupid and unable to dictate events. Tehran has emerged with greater power and leverage than before the war, and now Trump appears eager for a deal that Israel seems determined to sabotage.

Trump said Israel wasn't going to strike Iran. Israel struck Iran anyway. Was Trump lying, or has Netanyahu made it clear that even the President of the United States doesn't get the final say? For all the talk of Iran being weakened, it is Israel and Washington that increasingly look stupid and unable to dictate events. Tehran has emerged with greater power and leverage than before the war, and now Trump appears eager for a deal that Israel seems determined to sabotage.

Bushra Shaikh

16,707 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s threats no longer frighten Iran, and every retreat makes the U.S look weaker Trump insists Iran is desperate to negotiate, but Tehran says there are no direct talks, Pakistan says they aren't happening, and even U.S officials deny any direct negotiations are taking place. So what's actually happening? Fmr. CIA analyst Larry Johnson says we're watching the same cycle repeat over and over again. Trump threatens overwhelming military action, Iran refuses to concede, the world braces for war, then Trump steps back. Days later, the threats begin all over again. The problem is that Iran has now learned the pattern, and it no longer assumes every ultimatum will end in military action. Instead, Tehran prepares for the worst, waits, and watches Washington blink. Larry believes that's because the U.S has run into a reality it cannot bomb away: The Strait of Hormuz. Trump says America controls it, but Larry says that's simply not true. The U.S can launch airstrikes, move ships, and threaten, but it cannot reopen the Strait on its own terms while Iran still retains the ability to strike shipping and energy infrastructure. Which means the military solution Trump keeps hinting at doesn't actually exist. That's why Larry believes Iran's leverage keeps growing. Every day the disruption continues, oil, LNG and other critical exports remain constrained, pressure builds across the global economy, and Washington faces mounting costs from a conflict it still cannot decisively resolve. And if that continues... The question may no longer be what concessions Iran is willing to make. It may be what concessions America can no longer avoid. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s threats no longer frighten Iran, and every retreat makes the U.S look weaker Trump insists Iran is desperate to negotiate, but Tehran says there are no direct talks, Pakistan says they aren't happening, and even U.S officials deny any direct negotiations are taking place. So what's actually happening? Fmr. CIA analyst Larry Johnson says we're watching the same cycle repeat over and over again. Trump threatens overwhelming military action, Iran refuses to concede, the world braces for war, then Trump steps back. Days later, the threats begin all over again. The problem is that Iran has now learned the pattern, and it no longer assumes every ultimatum will end in military action. Instead, Tehran prepares for the worst, waits, and watches Washington blink. Larry believes that's because the U.S has run into a reality it cannot bomb away: The Strait of Hormuz. Trump says America controls it, but Larry says that's simply not true. The U.S can launch airstrikes, move ships, and threaten, but it cannot reopen the Strait on its own terms while Iran still retains the ability to strike shipping and energy infrastructure. Which means the military solution Trump keeps hinting at doesn't actually exist. That's why Larry believes Iran's leverage keeps growing. Every day the disruption continues, oil, LNG and other critical exports remain constrained, pressure builds across the global economy, and Washington faces mounting costs from a conflict it still cannot decisively resolve. And if that continues... The question may no longer be what concessions Iran is willing to make. It may be what concessions America can no longer avoid. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

285,538 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani

Mario Nawfal

230,855 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump only achieved a partial military success, and must now find an off-ramp before Iran turns Hormuz into a midterm disaster Fmr Green Beret and political analyst Nick Freitas supports military action to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He also believes the recent campaign inflicted real damage. Iran's conventional navy has been badly degraded, its ballistic missile programme has taken significant hits, its proxy network has been weakened, and its nuclear programme has been set back. But none of that solved the one problem that now matters most: The Strait of Hormuz. Nick argues Iran only needs to retain enough missiles, drones and small boats to convince commercial shipping that the Strait is too dangerous. And that gives Tehran leverage Washington still hasn't removed. Nick believes the Iranian leadership understands something every major American adversary has learned since Vietnam. You don't have to defeat the U.S military; you only have to outlast American politics, and that creates a big problem for Trump. He believes the administration achieved partial success against several military objectives, but it may not have enough time to achieve all of them before domestic politics starts dictating foreign policy. That's why Nick believes an off-ramp now makes more sense than chasing objectives that could take years to accomplish. In his view, Trump should reopen the Strait, bring energy prices down, and refocus on domestic priorities, and only then pursue the longer-term challenge of containing Iran without becoming trapped in another endless Middle Eastern conflict. Nick doesn't believe America's military has suddenly become weak; he thinks the battlefield has changed. A cheap drone doesn't need to destroy an aircraft carrier; it only needs to threaten a commercial tanker. That's the asymmetry. America can dominate the battlefield while Iran still shapes the political outcome. Nick Freitas

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump only achieved a partial military success, and must now find an off-ramp before Iran turns Hormuz into a midterm disaster Fmr Green Beret and political analyst Nick Freitas supports military action to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He also believes the recent campaign inflicted real damage. Iran's conventional navy has been badly degraded, its ballistic missile programme has taken significant hits, its proxy network has been weakened, and its nuclear programme has been set back. But none of that solved the one problem that now matters most: The Strait of Hormuz. Nick argues Iran only needs to retain enough missiles, drones and small boats to convince commercial shipping that the Strait is too dangerous. And that gives Tehran leverage Washington still hasn't removed. Nick believes the Iranian leadership understands something every major American adversary has learned since Vietnam. You don't have to defeat the U.S military; you only have to outlast American politics, and that creates a big problem for Trump. He believes the administration achieved partial success against several military objectives, but it may not have enough time to achieve all of them before domestic politics starts dictating foreign policy. That's why Nick believes an off-ramp now makes more sense than chasing objectives that could take years to accomplish. In his view, Trump should reopen the Strait, bring energy prices down, and refocus on domestic priorities, and only then pursue the longer-term challenge of containing Iran without becoming trapped in another endless Middle Eastern conflict. Nick doesn't believe America's military has suddenly become weak; he thinks the battlefield has changed. A cheap drone doesn't need to destroy an aircraft carrier; it only needs to threaten a commercial tanker. That's the asymmetry. America can dominate the battlefield while Iran still shapes the political outcome. Nick Freitas

Mario Nawfal

242,512 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

The biggest battle in the Middle East isn't Israel vs Iran anymore; it's Trump vs Netanyahu Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert thinks their relationship isn’t just under strain; it may be breaking because the U.S. and Israel no longer want the same thing. Trump wants the Iran war over; he wants Hormuz open, oil prices down, markets calm, and America out of another Middle East disaster before it consumes his presidency. Netanyahu doesn’t have that luxury. Ehud argues Netanyahu still sees Iran as unfinished business, has his own political needs, and is leading a coalition packed with hardliners who believe the answer to every problem is more force, more escalation, and more war. He even believes Trump may have created the nuclear problem he now claims to be solving. According to Ehud, when Trump tore up Obama’s Iran deal, Israel hadn't found evidence that Iran was violating it. Without the deal in place, Iran accelerated enrichment, and the crisis escalated. After bombing them, the region nearly blew wide open, and now Washington is back trying to negotiate another deal with Tehran. Only this time, Iran is stronger, the price is higher, and the stakes are worse. Olmert’s warning is simple: military power can buy time, but it cannot replace a political strategy. That applies to Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel’s future relationship with America. Because if Trump wants the war to end while Netanyahu’s coalition still wants escalation, then the question is whether they are still fighting for the same future. And if they are not, this may be the beginning of the biggest U.S-Israel rupture in decades.

The biggest battle in the Middle East isn't Israel vs Iran anymore; it's Trump vs Netanyahu Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert thinks their relationship isn’t just under strain; it may be breaking because the U.S. and Israel no longer want the same thing. Trump wants the Iran war over; he wants Hormuz open, oil prices down, markets calm, and America out of another Middle East disaster before it consumes his presidency. Netanyahu doesn’t have that luxury. Ehud argues Netanyahu still sees Iran as unfinished business, has his own political needs, and is leading a coalition packed with hardliners who believe the answer to every problem is more force, more escalation, and more war. He even believes Trump may have created the nuclear problem he now claims to be solving. According to Ehud, when Trump tore up Obama’s Iran deal, Israel hadn't found evidence that Iran was violating it. Without the deal in place, Iran accelerated enrichment, and the crisis escalated. After bombing them, the region nearly blew wide open, and now Washington is back trying to negotiate another deal with Tehran. Only this time, Iran is stronger, the price is higher, and the stakes are worse. Olmert’s warning is simple: military power can buy time, but it cannot replace a political strategy. That applies to Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel’s future relationship with America. Because if Trump wants the war to end while Netanyahu’s coalition still wants escalation, then the question is whether they are still fighting for the same future. And if they are not, this may be the beginning of the biggest U.S-Israel rupture in decades.

Mario Nawfal

679,989 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸: Is this a Joke? Trump has LOST IT Trump thinks he helped the Iranian people in Iran when he destroyed $270 BILLION in infrastructure, businesses, residential housing, hospitals, and more? Not to mention the war increasing inflation and further increasing prices in an economy strangled by sanctions. The cherry on top is PROOF the monarchists were a tool to manufacture consent for his destruction campaign. He did help Iran in one way. The world now knows it is a military super power and has FULL CONTROL over the Strait of Hormuz, or as he calls it the Strait of Iran

🇮🇷🇺🇸: Is this a Joke? Trump has LOST IT Trump thinks he helped the Iranian people in Iran when he destroyed $270 BILLION in infrastructure, businesses, residential housing, hospitals, and more? Not to mention the war increasing inflation and further increasing prices in an economy strangled by sanctions. The cherry on top is PROOF the monarchists were a tool to manufacture consent for his destruction campaign. He did help Iran in one way. The world now knows it is a military super power and has FULL CONTROL over the Strait of Hormuz, or as he calls it the Strait of Iran

Ryan Rozbiani

14,142 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

273,301 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

377,798 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇱🇧 Iran and Lebanon are the last two dominoes in a plan written in 1996 and Scott Horton says every step of it has backfired. Topple Iraq to dominate the Shia and pressure Hezbollah. Instead the U.S. handed Baghdad to Tehran's closest allies and multiplied Iran's regional power beyond anyone's imagination. Then they backed al-Qaeda in Syria to undo it. That created ISIS, forcing a third Iraq war fought again on Iran's side. "They're really bad at this." Scott Horton

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇱🇧 Iran and Lebanon are the last two dominoes in a plan written in 1996 and Scott Horton says every step of it has backfired. Topple Iraq to dominate the Shia and pressure Hezbollah. Instead the U.S. handed Baghdad to Tehran's closest allies and multiplied Iran's regional power beyond anyone's imagination. Then they backed al-Qaeda in Syria to undo it. That created ISIS, forcing a third Iraq war fought again on Iran's side. "They're really bad at this." Scott Horton

Mario Nawfal

33,709 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,863 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

Trump is losing the Iran War that he started for Israel. CENTCOM: Adm. Brad Cooper said that Iranian forces have opened fire on U.S. warships and commercial vessels today. Iran has claimed two missiles successfully struck US war ship in the Strait Of Hormuz just Hours After Trump Ordered US Ships To Enter! U.S. forces have returned fire and destroyed several Iranian small boats. He declined to say whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over. As a Trump supporter since day one, my moral is at an all-time low during Trump's second term. There is no end in sight to this war which looks like a war against the The American people. Citizens are being bled dry at the gas pump and grocery store. Housing prices, property taxes and homeowners insurance are crushing American families. Illegal aliens are competing for homes driving up rent and housing prices. After the Iraq War and lies about WMD's, it is shocking to me that anyone actually believes that Iran was 2 weeks away from launching a nuclear attack on Israel as the Trump administration claimed. Keep in mind this was after Trump claimed to have utterly destroyed Iran's decades old nuclear program in the 12 Day War that they are claiming has been going on for 47 years. We have lost this unnecessary war of aggression. The only reason the war is continuing is because Netanyahu want's it to and Trump is trying desperately to save face as American soldiers die and taxpayer dollars are wasted. The National Debt is now higher than the GPD of America, thanks to Trump and the Republicans, spending even more than the Democrats. Trump was supposed to reign in wasteful spending, instead he told the Democrats to hold his beer as he spent us into poverty. Trump’s disapproval rating has hit a record high of 62%! Republicans are even less popular than Trump. Trump's plummeting approval rating basically ensures the Democrats will win big in the Midterms. It appears that Trump was always a Deep State operative. He played the part of a populist and now that he doesn't need us, he has revealed his true colors. MAGA is now MIGA and he was never America First. Am I wrong?

Trump is losing the Iran War that he started for Israel. CENTCOM: Adm. Brad Cooper said that Iranian forces have opened fire on U.S. warships and commercial vessels today. Iran has claimed two missiles successfully struck US war ship in the Strait Of Hormuz just Hours After Trump Ordered US Ships To Enter! U.S. forces have returned fire and destroyed several Iranian small boats. He declined to say whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over. As a Trump supporter since day one, my moral is at an all-time low during Trump's second term. There is no end in sight to this war which looks like a war against the The American people. Citizens are being bled dry at the gas pump and grocery store. Housing prices, property taxes and homeowners insurance are crushing American families. Illegal aliens are competing for homes driving up rent and housing prices. After the Iraq War and lies about WMD's, it is shocking to me that anyone actually believes that Iran was 2 weeks away from launching a nuclear attack on Israel as the Trump administration claimed. Keep in mind this was after Trump claimed to have utterly destroyed Iran's decades old nuclear program in the 12 Day War that they are claiming has been going on for 47 years. We have lost this unnecessary war of aggression. The only reason the war is continuing is because Netanyahu want's it to and Trump is trying desperately to save face as American soldiers die and taxpayer dollars are wasted. The National Debt is now higher than the GPD of America, thanks to Trump and the Republicans, spending even more than the Democrats. Trump was supposed to reign in wasteful spending, instead he told the Democrats to hold his beer as he spent us into poverty. Trump’s disapproval rating has hit a record high of 62%! Republicans are even less popular than Trump. Trump's plummeting approval rating basically ensures the Democrats will win big in the Midterms. It appears that Trump was always a Deep State operative. He played the part of a populist and now that he doesn't need us, he has revealed his true colors. MAGA is now MIGA and he was never America First. Am I wrong?

Thomas Paine Band

38,343 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten