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Türkiye is now confronting a hard reality in Somalia, it lacks both strategic agility and strategic depth. By concentrating its investments and influence in a politically fragile zone with limited strategic value, Ankara built neither resilience nor maneuver space. As conditions shifted, this absence of depth left Türkiye overexposed,...

29,488 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 Turkey’s Rise and the Fear in Tehran & Tel Aviv. Turkey’s re-emergence as a regional power is changing the balance of the Middle East. Both Iran and Israel increasingly see Ankara as a rival, even a threat. For Iran, Turkey’s growing influence undermines Tehran’s ambition to shape the region. For Israel, it threatens the strategic dominance Tel Aviv has enjoyed for decades. Turkey has invested heavily in its defence industry. The Bayraktar drone family, the Akinci UAV, and now the stealthy Kizilelma unmanned fighter have reshaped modern battlefields from Libya to Ukraine. Advanced missile systems and naval platforms are giving Ankara unprecedented independence from U.S. and NATO suppliers. Beyond weapons, Turkey is pursuing regional influence. In Syria, Ankara is a counterweight to both Russia and Iran. In the Caucasus, it backs Azerbaijan against Armenia. Across Africa, Turkish military bases and training programs extend influence from Libya to Somalia. In the Mediterranean, disputes with Greece and Cyprus showcase Ankara’s maritime ambitions. History gives Turkey unique leverage. It possesses NATO’s second largest army, and wields cultural and religious ties that reach deep into the Muslim world. This blend of hard and soft power gives it a reach neither Iran nor Israel can easily match. Geography strengthens Ankara further. Control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits makes it a gatekeeper between the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Its role as an energy corridor connecting Caspian, Middle Eastern and European markets adds another layer of strategic weight. Even under severe economic crisis and inflation, Turkey is doubling down on defence and geopolitical manoeuvring. For both Tehran and Tel Aviv, this resilience is unnerving. For Iran, Turkey’s military technology and its Sunni-led influence threaten Tehran’s regional narrative. For Israel, Turkey’s expanding arsenal and growing leadership across the Muslim world challenge its position as the region’s undisputed military power. The fea..r is clear: if Ankara continues on its current trajectory, it may emerge not just as a player — but as the decisive power in the Middle East.

Defence Index

53,348 次观看 • 11 个月前

The upcoming weeks could be a period that requires close attention in terms of the geopolitical direction of East Africa. The overall picture in Addis Ababa indicates that the region is passing through a critical threshold. We are in Addis Ababa as part of President Erdoğan’s visit to Ethiopia. 1. This year marks the 100th anniversary of Ethiopia–Türkiye relations. Türkiye’s first embassy in Sub-Saharan Africa was opened in Addis Ababa in 1926. The main theme of the visit, consistent with this historical continuity, is a “Permanent Partnership.” 2. Ethiopia occupies an extremely sensitive position within the conflict-prone and competitive environment of the Horn of Africa. The leadership seeks to consolidate its position on issues it considers vital. At the same time, it tends to turn any emerging opportunity into a strategic gain. 3. However, growing demographic pressure, economic challenges, the fatigue of internal conflict, and other domestic vulnerabilities-combined with the structural disadvantages of being a landlocked country-are pushing Addis Ababa toward alternative strategic options. 4. In this context, the strategy of “access to the sea” is seen as a form of strategic relief-both for managing internal pressures and deepening regional influence. Creating economic breathing space, reducing logistical dependence, and increasing strategic maneuverability are the core motivations behind this approach. 5. This places Ethiopia in a difficult equation: it must produce policy within a competitive-and at times confrontational-regional environment where its ambitions may clash with the sovereignty sensitivities of its neighbors. The search for maritime access therefore stands out as an issue that could easily harden the region’s fragile balance. 6. Its closer alignment with the UAE in the Sudan civil war reflects the cumulative pressures of multiple security and economic challenges. Recent developments suggest that Ethiopia may seek a more active and visible role in the Sudan file in the near term. 7. At the same time, military movements along the Eritrean border carry risks that could trigger a new confrontation. For Ethiopia, the Eritrea issue is directly linked to its most critical maritime option. Access to the sea through Assab remains central to its strategic thinking. Historical grievances and current security concerns are deeply intertwined in this file. 8. Another critical relationship is with Egypt. The core issue here is the Nile Basin and water security. While the GERD dam represents energy production, development, and strategic leverage for Ethiopia, it is perceived by Egypt as a high-risk scenario. What began as a technical water management issue has evolved into a geopolitical matter directly tied to regional power balances. 9. When regional dynamics and the engagement of external actors are considered together, it becomes clear that Ethiopia is navigating a multilayered but high-risk foreign policy landscape-one that affects fault lines across North Africa, the Middle East, the Gulf, and the Horn of Africa. 10. Within this broader tension environment, Türkiye-Ethiopia relations remain in a positive trajectory. Despite differences in certain areas, the potential for deeper cooperation is high. Today, both leaders delivered strong messages in this direction. 11. President Erdoğan’s visit comes at a time when regional conflict dynamics are becoming increasingly visible. Ankara is seeking to develop a balancing approach aimed at preventing potential conflicts and lowering rising regional tensions. Given that Türkiye has both direct and indirect interests tied to the nature of its relationship with Ethiopia, the process is being managed with careful strategic consideration. 12. From arrival to departure, President Erdoğan was warmly received in Addis Ababa. The key areas of focus included economic cooperation, defense industry partnerships, and critical regional issues. Murat Yeşiltaş SETA

Tunç Demirtaş

14,131 次观看 • 6 个月前

Turkish President Erdogan on EU: Strategic blindness toward Türkiye unfortunately still clearly exists in many institutions of the Union. It must now be understood that a European Union without Türkiye as a full member will not become a global actor or a center of attraction. We are not a country whose value is remembered only when needed, whose door is knocked on when necessary, and which is sidelined at other times. We never have been, and we never will be. The European Union must fully appreciate Türkiye’s constructive stance and must not misuse it. It should refrain from actions and rhetoric that would put this at risk. Let it not be forgotten: neither is Türkiye the old Türkiye, nor is the world the same world confined to the sphere of influence of Western states. A new world is being built—one where regional cooperation is gaining importance, new actors are emerging, and the global system is rapidly evolving toward multipolarity. Türkiye is among the strongest countries poised to become one of the poles of this new system. Today, Europe’s need for Türkiye is greater than Türkiye’s need for Europe. And this need will grow even more tomorrow. Europe is at a crossroads: Either it will see Türkiye’s growing power and global weight as an opportunity to overcome its bottleneck, or it will allow exclusionary rhetoric to darken Europe’s future. Our hope is that decision-makers in Europe will abandon their political and historical prejudices and focus on developing sincere, genuine, and equal-level relations with Türkiye. Such a relationship will benefit the European continent, of which Türkiye is an inseparable part.
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Turkish President Erdogan on EU: Strategic blindness toward Türkiye unfortunately still clearly exists in many institutions of the Union. It must now be understood that a European Union without Türkiye as a full member will not become a global actor or a center of attraction. We are not a country whose value is remembered only when needed, whose door is knocked on when necessary, and which is sidelined at other times. We never have been, and we never will be. The European Union must fully appreciate Türkiye’s constructive stance and must not misuse it. It should refrain from actions and rhetoric that would put this at risk. Let it not be forgotten: neither is Türkiye the old Türkiye, nor is the world the same world confined to the sphere of influence of Western states. A new world is being built—one where regional cooperation is gaining importance, new actors are emerging, and the global system is rapidly evolving toward multipolarity. Türkiye is among the strongest countries poised to become one of the poles of this new system. Today, Europe’s need for Türkiye is greater than Türkiye’s need for Europe. And this need will grow even more tomorrow. Europe is at a crossroads: Either it will see Türkiye’s growing power and global weight as an opportunity to overcome its bottleneck, or it will allow exclusionary rhetoric to darken Europe’s future. Our hope is that decision-makers in Europe will abandon their political and historical prejudices and focus on developing sincere, genuine, and equal-level relations with Türkiye. Such a relationship will benefit the European continent, of which Türkiye is an inseparable part.

Clash Report

141,854 次观看 • 3 个月前