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Two days ago, we introduced the Nexar Risk Index. The response made one thing clear: Mobility has outgrown how we measure risk. Billions of miles move daily. Trillions of dollars ride on them. Yet exposure is still priced on static history. Still validated in narrow domains. Still planned from...

688,885 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Why Redfin is keeping climate risk data (even if others aren't). There is a divide forming in the real estate world regarding data transparency. Recently, Zillow removed climate risk data following pressure from agents concerned about impact on home values. At Redfin, we took a different path. We decided to keep displaying climate risk data. Why? Because homebuyers find climate risk scores valuable when making one of the most important financial decisions of their lives. In 2020, we ran a massive experiment with 17.5 million users. We displayed flood risk data provided by First Street to half the audience. The result was undeniable: Among users looking at severely or extremely flood-risky homes, those who saw the risk scores made offers on homes with 50% less risk than those who didn’t. Information drives decision-making. Is the current data perfect? No. We don't know exactly how fast climate change will progress or how local governments will adapt. But the First Street methodology is peer reviewed and validated by experts. Climate risk scores are only one piece of information regarding the costs of climate change for homebuyers. Ideally, we would provide actual insurance cost data alongside these risk scores. However, without disclosure requirements, buyers often don't learn the cost of insuring a home until after they’ve made an offer. Until insurance transparency improves, we are committed to providing the best available climate risk data so buyers can make informed decisions when choosing a home.

Daryl Fairweather, PhD | Chief Economist

14,962 views • 7 months ago

Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Musk’s chapter was titled “The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.” The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: “When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.” This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: “If one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.” One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldn’t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: “Somehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or there’s something about risk he knows that we don’t.” That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didn’t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they don’t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Dustin

49,454 views • 3 months ago

Why the S&P 500 Will Be Forced To Buy Bitcoin In this Swan Bitcoin presentation, Adam Livingston explains why passive index mechanics will force the S&P 500 to ingest Bitcoin exposure the moment Strategy qualifies for inclusion. This is not about taste or ideology, it is about rules, float, weights, and the blind math of passive flows. When the index updates the list, trillions in benchmark trackers and benchmark huggers follow, which pipes Bitcoin exposure into every 401k and pension that hugs the S&P. You will learn: - The exact checklist for S&P 500 inclusion and how Strategy now clears it - How passive funds like SPY and VOO are compelled to buy new entrants, not asked - Why a small initial weight can still trigger billions in forced purchases - How spot Bitcoin ETFs amplify the same flows with daily rebalancing - The reflexive loop that forms when Bitcoin rises, Strategy’s weight rises, and passive capital buys again - Real world proofs from prior inclusions that show how fast the index effect hits - Why miners, exchanges, and Bitcoin treasury companies create a second order wave of exposure - Why this is inevitability, not opinion Who this is for: - Finance pros who want the plumbing, not the memes - Bitcoiners who need a clean, shareable explanation for skeptics - CIOs, advisors, and analysts who live and die by benchmark risk Why it matters: - The passive system cannot ignore Bitcoin once the rules are triggered - Index mechanics will distribute Bitcoin exposure across global portfolios by default

Swan

25,982 views • 11 months ago

"Unequivocally...For Every Single Vaccine On The Childhood Schedule...Your Risk Of Dying From The Vaccine Far Exceeds Your Risk Of Death From The Disease." Dr Paul Thomas, MD "If You're Afraid Of Your Child Dying, If That's What You Fear The Most...Do Not Give Them A Vaccine." Full Data---Rounded For Ease Of Reference... Unrounded Raw Data Listed At Bottom Of Post. 🔵Polio: Death From The Disease: 1 in 1 Trillion Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 215K 🔵Diphtheria: Death From The Disease: 1 in 42.5 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 76K 🔵Tetanus: Death From The Disease: 1 in 1.5 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 76K 🔵Pertussis: Death From The Disease: 1 in 2.3 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 76K 🔵Measles: Death From The Disease: 1 in 106.5 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 108K 🔵Mumps: Death From The Disease: 1 in 40.3 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 108K 🔵Rubella: Death From The Disease: 0/ Negligible Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 108K 🔵Varicella: Death From The Disease: 1 in 32.3 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 202K 🔵Hepatitis A: Death From The Disease: 1 in 1.6 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 73K 🔵Hepatitis B: Death From The Disease: 1 in 305K Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 96K 🔵HIB: Death From The Disease: 1 in 1.5 Million Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 46K 🔵Pneumococcal: Death From The Disease: 1 in 236K Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 50K 🔵Meningococcal: Death From The Disease: 1 in 822K Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 141K 🔵Influenza: Death From The Disease: 1 in 136K Death From The Vaccine: 1 in 15K Dr. Paul Thomas, Dr. Kenneth P. Stoller & Stand for Health Freedom, are suing the CDC. The lawsuit accuses the CDC of recommending 72+ vaccine doses for American children without ever testing the cumulative schedule for safety. The Lawsuit... No safety testing: The CDC & FDA has never studied the long term, combined effects of the full childhood schedule. The Institute Of Medicine has issued two decades of warnings, but no accountability or action has resulted. 27 years of silence: By law, HHS must file biennial reports to Congress on vaccine safety efforts. No reports have been issued since 1998. Constitutional violations: The suit charges the CDC with First Amendment violations(silencing dissenting doctors), the Fifth Amendment violations(due process & bodily integrity) & the Administrative Procedure Act violations(arbitrary & capricious rulemaking). The Plaintiffs Seek... Reclassification of all childhood vaccines to Category B. This shifts to shared decision making, which would make medical exemptions far easier to obtain. That rigorous safety studies be required, comparing fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated children before any return to a mandated schedule. To end retaliation against doctors. Physicians who issue exemptions based on individualized medical judgment, would be protected. If the case is won, this lawsuit will expose the unlawful CDC hyper vaccination program. It will mark a massive victory for families who seek vaccine exemptions & for physicians fighting to practice real 'patient focused' medicine. Full Raw Data---'Unrounded' Complete Numbers... 🔴POLIO: Risk of death from Polio is 1 in 1 Trillion. Risk of death from the Polio Vaccine is 1 in 214,973. 🔴DIPHTHERIA: Risk of death from Diphtheria is 1 in 42,509,839. Risk of death from the DTaP Vaccine is 1 in 76,341. 🔴TETANUS: Risk of death from Tetanus is 1 in 1,506,184. Risk of death from the DTaP Vaccine is 1 in 76,341. 🔴PERTUSSIS: Risk of death from Pertussis is 1 in 2,346,718. Risk of death from the DTaP Vaccine is 1 in 76,341. 🔴MEASLES: Risk of death from Measles is 1 in 106,506,429. Risk of death from the MMR Vaccine is 1 in 108,666. 🔴MUMPS: Risk of death from Mumps is 1 in 40,371,594. Risk of death from the MMR Vaccine is 1 in 108,666. 🔴RUBELLA: Risk of death from Rubella is 0. Risk of death from the MMR Vaccine is 1 in 108,666. 🔴VARICELLA: Risk of death from Chickenpox is 1 in 32,331,860. Risk of death from the Vaccine is 1 in 202,398. 🔴HEPATITIS A: Risk of death from Hepatitis A is 1 in 1,667,135. Risk of death from the Vaccine is 1 in 72,948. 🔴HEPATITIS B: Risk of death from Hepatitis B is 1 in 305,465. Risk of death from the vaccine is 1 in 96,314. 🔴HIB: Risk of death from HIB is 1 in 1,494,710. Risk of death from the HIB Vaccine is 1 in 45,966. 🔴PNEUMOCOCCAL: Risk of death from Pneumonia is 1 in 236,562. Risk of death from the vaccine is 1 in 50,056. 🔴MENINGOCOCCAL: Risk of death from Meningitis is 1 in 821,925. Risk of death from the Vaccine is 1 in 141,124. 🔴INFLUENZA: Risk of death from Influenza is 1 in 135,905. Risk of death from the Flu Vaccine is 1 in 15,702. 👇Dr Paul Thomas, MD "Vax Facts"👇 👇Stand For Health Freedom👇 👇Dr Paul Thomas' Research Data👇 Speaker: PaulThomas Video: @toxins_in_children

Valerie Anne Smith

135,752 views • 9 months ago