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🚨 Two really important Figure robotics updates. - 1st, they will be announcing two new commercial customers in the next 60 days. This means Figure will probably be the first humanoid robotics company in the United States after Digit (Agility Robotics) to hit true commercial deployment. It puts them...

18,392 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Everything Elon said about Optimus on the Q4 2024 earnings call: ⦿ I see a path for Tesla to be the most valuable company in the world, possibly bigger than the next five companies combined, overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. ⦿ The training compute needed for Optimus will ultimately probably be 10× what is needed for cars. Humanoids likely have 1,000× more useS than a car, which doesn't mean training scales by 1,000×, but probably close to 10×. The training compute will scale progressively as Optimus becomes more productive. ⦿ Long-term, Optimus has the potential to generate $10 trillion in revenue. In that scenario, we can support a lot of training compute. Even $500 billion in training compute is a good deal (chuckles). ⦿ There's a lot of uncertainty with timing because several aspects are being iterated simultaneously. The internal plan is for roughly 10,000 robots to be built this year, but we'll more likely produce several thousand. ⦿ I'm confident those several thousand robots will be able to do useful things. ⦿ The lessons from Production V1 will inform the changes in Production V2, which we expect to launch around mid-next year. ⦿ Our goal, aspirationally, is to ramp 10× every year, but perhaps we end up with 5× growth per year. With that kind of growth, it won't be many years before we're making 100 million robots a year. ⦿ The off-the-shelf components didn't work well, so we had to design everything in-house, including the most sophisticated hand ever made. Optimus will be able to play a piano and thread a needle. ⦿ My long-term prediction is that Optimus will overwhelmingly be the value of the company. ⦿ Optimus is not design-locked. It is rapidly evolving in a good direction. Tesla has by far the best humanoid robotics engineers in the world. Tesla also has all the other necessary ingredients: battery pack, power electronics, charging, communications, real-world AI, and the ability to scale production. ⦿ What other companies are missing is real-world AI and the ability to scale to millions of units a year. ⦿ This year, we aim to use Optimus internally at Tesla. We can easily use several thousand robots at Tesla for repetitive tasks, such as loading sheet metal at the welding line. ⦿ The Production V1 line is roughly 1,000 units per month. The Production V2, launching around mid-next year, will be for 10k units per month. The line after that will be for 100k units a month. Of course, it takes time for any given line to reach its maximum potential. ⦿ A very rough guess: we'll start delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla in the second half of 2026. The ramp is going to be exponential, and demand will not be a problem. ⦿ Once we're above 1 million units per year, the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000. Its total mass and complexity are much lower than a car. At a similar production volume to the Model Y, Optimus should be about half the cost of a Model Y. ⦿ The price is a different matter than cost. The price of Optimus will be set by market demand. [This is by far the longest Elon has ever spent discussing Optimus on an earnings call.]

The Humanoid Hub

96,475 次观看 • 1 年前

BREAKING: First-Ever Full Tour of Figure's Humanoid HQ CEO Brett Adcock Exclusive look through every department on their San Jose campus: BotQ Factory, Testing, Design, Demos & more. Brett walks us through how Figure is built: - System integration lab: where robots are stress-tested with software faults & physical pushes - Helix AI: team floor where the controls & neural network engineers train the vision-language-action model that runs onboard every Figure robot - Reinforcement learning & stability testing: where Figure demos the Vulcan project — surviving a lost knee mid-task - Home: environment where Figure 03 autonomously tidies a living room using their Helix neural network (no teleoperation) - BotQ: manufacturing facility where heads, batteries, and limbs come together on the assembly line, including the custom-built battery line & end-of-line burn-in bays - Industrial design studio: (opened publicly for the first time) housing every generation of Figure robot ever built, including: Figure 01 with its Frankenstein forearms, Figure 02, & the sleek Figure 03 that recently appeared at the White House, plus the evolution of Figure's hands & feet Brett shares why he believes humanoid robots may achieve AGI before any other form factor, why Figure pivoted entirely from hand-coded controls to neural networks, & teases that Figure 04 will be their "iPhone 1 moment." This was so much fun! Big thank you to Brett & the team at Figure for opening the doors for us! Brett Adcock Figure 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 (00:00) Inside Figure’s Humanoid Campus (00:48) The humanoid factory (03:18) First humanoid guest at the White House (05:29) Controlling a robot with infinite movements (10:46) The truth about robot failures (13:00) Attacking a humanoid robot (testing responses) (16:12) Building a general purpose robot (23:05) The "Never Fall" protocol (28:56) Is the home robot teleoperated? (33:36) Leasing a 24/7 robot (35:01) Can a humanoid build a real car? (43:32) From flying robots to humanoids (45:59) The hidden path to physical AGI (56:21) Figure's secret design studio (01:00:44) Figure 4: The biggest leap in robotics (01:06:25) Training robots in spandex (01:10:26) Westworld, TIME Magazine, & Deadmau5

Molly O’Shea

732,250 次观看 • 2 个月前