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TypeSafe AI's Diogo Almeida says AGI is extremely doable, yet basic work remains largely unautomated: "I still don't think we're on the path of RSI. I do think that what OpenAI defined as AGI is extremely doable: automating most of the world's economically valuable work." "There's a lot of... work out there. A lot of it is very rote and simple... As far as I can tell, the intelligence of that has been available in the models for quite a while now. My chip on my shoulder is: Why is this not available?" "Since RLHF, the AI industry kind of bifurcated into gigantic overpromise, underdeliver... Because humans evaluate how good the models are, it looks really good because they are the judge. But we've been optimizing that judge instead of the automation part. That has been the missing thing." "Are you really telling me that math is solved, or even two years ago, GPQA... is solved, but we still can't handle a drive-through? It's a very hard thing to hold in your head at once. I think a lot of people don't have good answers to that." Diogo Almeidashow more

a16z

1,081,282 subscribers

66,926 views • 8 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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10 Comments

Gabriele Spata8 days ago

so the model can pass gpqa but the drive through still needs a human, that gap has a name and it's not intelligence

dabus.base.eth(d/acc, e/acc)7 days ago

Too many people in AI are chasing the next shiny thing. The game now is accountability, usefulness, and putting knowledge into action. We gotta break more things.

Sagiv Ofek7 days ago

AGI is extremely doable, but nobody can automate the invoice. The last mile was never a model problem.

Inference Log8 days ago

the drive-through thing is so telling. rote work isn't hard because of intelligence, it's hard because nobody ever wrote down the 40 weird exceptions. half the job lives in someone's head

icefrog.◎8 days ago

optimizing for the judge is such a trap

安叫兽|Bird🕊️ 🔶 BNB7 days ago

基础活还没大规模自动化，AGI就先说容易了？

Joobman8 days ago

May I be completely honest? If you can't pitch your idea or your product in just 5 sentences then it's very probably not worth it. And frankly I gave this video a chance, but after 5 minutes, there is still no crystal clear point. Why.

Raven8 days ago

AGI is extremely doable. The basics remain in beta, naturally

Tommy YC8 days ago

They optimized the judge not the work

The AI Therapist8 days ago

A16z suggests basic work remains unautomated. RSI looks unlikely yet AGI seems doable to Diogo Almeida at TypeSafe AI.

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a16z

37,083 views • 1 month ago

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The Information

12,466 views • 8 months ago

I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

David Perell

86,765 views • 1 year ago

Mira Murati says the outcome of frontier AI is not predestined: "Predicting a dystopia or a utopia, to me, feels very simplified because the truth is we actually have a lot of agency in how we build this technology, in the tools that we're building, how we're deploying it." "There are certainly those risks. We all understand the potential for greatness that comes with building frontier AI systems, and that's why we're working on them." "Where I might disagree or take a different path is that I think we have a lot of agency. This period of time where both humans and AI systems have their hands on the wheel, and we can collaborate, it's a very important time to get right." Mira Murati at Bloomberg Tech live with Emily Chang

Mira Murati says the outcome of frontier AI is not predestined: "Predicting a dystopia or a utopia, to me, feels very simplified because the truth is we actually have a lot of agency in how we build this technology, in the tools that we're building, how we're deploying it." "There are certainly those risks. We all understand the potential for greatness that comes with building frontier AI systems, and that's why we're working on them." "Where I might disagree or take a different path is that I think we have a lot of agency. This period of time where both humans and AI systems have their hands on the wheel, and we can collaborate, it's a very important time to get right." Mira Murati at Bloomberg Tech live with Emily Chang

a16z

120,446 views • 4 months ago

🎥| “Well, for starters, it's not the first time I've heard a story like that, you know, of people kind of being inspired to work in the industry. Um, and I think that's really cool, you know. I've always been a big believer that the more fans that work in the music industry, the better for the music and the better for everyone, really. You know, they're definitely the most passionate people. Um, you know, especially the likes of like managements or record labels, these kind of opinions are vital. [Fan: We live it, like, quite literally.] Absolutely, absolutely, yeah. There's not really, you know, it's not about kind of guessing, it's, like you say, you guys kind of live that life. So, I think it's really, really important, it's really cool that it seems to be happening more and more, um, which I think is great. Um, in terms of the relationship with the fans, something I really, really cherish. it's a really funny thing, you know, when you've grown up together, but that ‘together’ to me is, you know, a decent chunk of people. It's a funny concept to me, really, in general. But I feel very, very lucky to have it, and I feel really—I think I've always felt quite protective over my fans as well, and I think... that is a nature of kind of growing up together, you know? I feel like we've got each other's back like that. [Fan: I feel like you have a unique relationship with your fans that is not common amongst artists today, so we really appreciate that, the effort you put in and the care.] I like to, yeah, I like to think so. I mean, I feel very, very blessed that wherever I am, you know, wherever I am, there's a certain kind of level of support and passion, you know? And that... there's a friend, exactly, that's lovely.” via Jesslyn Downey

🎥| “Well, for starters, it's not the first time I've heard a story like that, you know, of people kind of being inspired to work in the industry. Um, and I think that's really cool, you know. I've always been a big believer that the more fans that work in the music industry, the better for the music and the better for everyone, really. You know, they're definitely the most passionate people. Um, you know, especially the likes of like managements or record labels, these kind of opinions are vital. [Fan: We live it, like, quite literally.] Absolutely, absolutely, yeah. There's not really, you know, it's not about kind of guessing, it's, like you say, you guys kind of live that life. So, I think it's really, really important, it's really cool that it seems to be happening more and more, um, which I think is great. Um, in terms of the relationship with the fans, something I really, really cherish. it's a really funny thing, you know, when you've grown up together, but that ‘together’ to me is, you know, a decent chunk of people. It's a funny concept to me, really, in general. But I feel very, very lucky to have it, and I feel really—I think I've always felt quite protective over my fans as well, and I think... that is a nature of kind of growing up together, you know? I feel like we've got each other's back like that. [Fan: I feel like you have a unique relationship with your fans that is not common amongst artists today, so we really appreciate that, the effort you put in and the care.] I like to, yeah, I like to think so. I mean, I feel very, very blessed that wherever I am, you know, wherever I am, there's a certain kind of level of support and passion, you know? And that... there's a friend, exactly, that's lovely.” via Jesslyn Downey

World Tomlinson

18,346 views • 2 months ago

Ben Affleck says the best work of his career is the commentary he recorded for Armageddon Ben Affleck: So this disc, um, the... the Criterion. I was surprised when I heard Criterion was doing Armageddon, 'cause I didn't think of it as that kind of movie when we did it. Um, and in retrospect now, I feel like maybe my best work in my career is the commentary on this disc. People approach me to talk about the commentary on this disc as much as they do like movies that I've been in. And it's because, um, I didn't know any better than to be really honest. But I won't spoil it for those of you who are interested. It... it... it is a... it is an... as an achievement that I'm proud of and didn't intend to be as good as I now think it is at the time. Criterion, when is the 4K coming out?"

Ben Affleck says the best work of his career is the commentary he recorded for Armageddon Ben Affleck: So this disc, um, the... the Criterion. I was surprised when I heard Criterion was doing Armageddon, 'cause I didn't think of it as that kind of movie when we did it. Um, and in retrospect now, I feel like maybe my best work in my career is the commentary on this disc. People approach me to talk about the commentary on this disc as much as they do like movies that I've been in. And it's because, um, I didn't know any better than to be really honest. But I won't spoil it for those of you who are interested. It... it... it is a... it is an... as an achievement that I'm proud of and didn't intend to be as good as I now think it is at the time. Criterion, when is the 4K coming out?"

mykel ♰

324,364 views • 2 months ago