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🇺🇦⚡️🇷🇺 Ukrainian forces have advanced inside Kostiantynivka, regaining positions along Yemelianova Street as intense fighting continues for one of the most important Ukrainian strongholds in the Donetsk region. The advance comes amid continued heavy fighting in and around Kostiantynivka, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to contain Russian pressure and...

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🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ The center of gravity of the ground war has increasingly shifted toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis. Since roughly October 2023, Russian forces have held the broader battlefield initiative in Donbas, advancing slowly but persistently. Today, the heaviest pressure is around Kostiantynivka and its surrounding fortified areas, which form one of Ukraine’s last major defensive belts from the south and southeast before the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, effectively the final major Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast. Moscow has concentrated substantial assault and maneuver formations on this axis in an effort to break through Ukrainian defenses and open the road toward Kramatorsk. The offensive is costing Russia heavily, particularly because Ukrainian positions are saturated with FPV drones, but the political and military value of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk is high enough for Moscow to tolerate extraordinary losses. Russia is simultaneously attempting to approach the agglomeration from the north through the Lyman axis, where Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps under Andriy Biletsky has been containing Russian pressure. Elsewhere, the frontline remains comparatively static: Ukraine has recovered some contested “gray zones” where Russian troop density is lower, while both sides continue limited infiltrations and localized actions without producing major operational changes. This makes the battle for Sloviansk-Kramatorsk much larger than a fight over another piece of territory. Capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held core of Donetsk Oblast would give Putin something he could present domestically as fulfillment of a central objective of his so-called “special military operation,” potentially strengthening Moscow’s position before negotiations. Ukraine therefore has every incentive not only to hold the agglomeration, but to make Russia pay the maximum possible price for attempting to take it. If Russian assault formations are severely depleted here without achieving an operational breakthrough, Moscow could eventually lose the offensive initiative it has held for years. At the same time, there are currently neither sufficient Ukrainian manpower and military-technical resources nor visible battlefield preparations for a major operational-level Ukrainian counteroffensive, making attrition and defense the more realistic immediate strategy.

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