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⚡️ University of Chicago Political Science Professor: Iran has realized we cannot defeat them 🔹️Robert Pape: We have not weakened Iran, but rather strengthened them, and we cannot stop their attacks. The White House's decision-making environment is more chaotic than that of the Iranian government. This indicates that Trump...

16,253 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

42,990 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

469,588 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce