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Update on Dedicated Options-to-Stock Portfolio Self-Challenge: $MSTR trading too far above $325 to add more options but focusing on plan to exercise $210 strike calls acquired in Sept-Oct on 14,500 shares. Moving towards 51,000 $MSTR shares by week's end. #Bitcoin

Josh Man

147,087 subscribers

55,950 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

Finanzen #Bitcoin

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10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Pork

Porkvor 1 Jahr

Josh Mandell giving apes a lot to think about on this Tuesday morning

Profilbild von Josh Man

Josh Manvor 1 Jahr

No Shirt No Shoes No Orange Necktie No Service #Bitcoin $MSTR

Profilbild von Lark Davis

Lark Davisvor 1 Jahr

2013: $BTC topped 367 days post-halving 2017: 526 days 2021: 548 days If the trend holds, next peak could hit in Oct 2025. Subscribe now and join 130K+ investors prepping for the next big cycle.

Profilbild von Howard Wetsman

Howard Wetsmanvor 1 Jahr

So Josh, I think two things were going on. 1- 325 on Thursday AM meant you were going to add and that's off the table 2- 325 on Thursday AM was the launch for a big candle. Are you still seeing that or is this higher price this early evidence that the pressure is being unwound more judiciously?

Profilbild von Josh Man

Josh Manvor 1 Jahr

1. So far ... assuming we stay up around $340 ... too far above $325 2. Chances of big weekly Green candle slip as we stay at $340 area so I pivot to longer term HODL and GRWO (see what I did there)? 3. But wait and see ... we could drop back down to $325. I play this by ear. 4. I used to play PIANO by ear, but now I use both hands. #Bitcoin $MSTR

Profilbild von Thomas Young

Thomas Youngvor 1 Jahr

market is front running Josh

Profilbild von Kevin S

Kevin Svor 1 Jahr

Very Impressive, thanks for the update. Looking forward to 💯,000

Profilbild von Josh Man

Josh Manvor 1 Jahr

Thanks Kevin! Me, too

Profilbild von InSaylorWeTrust

InSaylorWeTrustvor 1 Jahr

🤯insane. Great work Josh. Appreciate these posts greatly.

Profilbild von Josh Man

Josh Manvor 1 Jahr

🙏🏼

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your uncle says gold, crypto twitter says bitcoin, finance bros say MSTR. i built a minara desktop dashboard to compare them and track what changes first, what i'm actually comparing: → bitcoin: you own the asset itself → gold: usually you own it through a fund, not the metal → MSTR: you own shares of a company that holds bitcoin that last one is where most people get confused. when you buy MSTR you're not just betting on bitcoin, you're also betting on the company, its debt and its decision to issue more shares so i built a dashboard with all three over the same period: return, volatility and max drawdown, with the exact instrument and source labeled for every number and the numbers show it. in the last run MSTR dropped 0.98% while bitcoin only dropped 0.33%, with a deeper drawdown too. the stock people buy "to get bitcoin exposure" fell about 3x harder than bitcoin itself. gold was the calmest of the three then i set up a recurring check that runs on its own and tells me what changed since the last one, so i don't rebuild this every week full walkthrough below 👇🏼 Minara AI #MinaraAI #FinancialAI #AgenticTrading #AgenticFinance

your uncle says gold, crypto twitter says bitcoin, finance bros say MSTR. i built a minara desktop dashboard to compare them and track what changes first, what i'm actually comparing: → bitcoin: you own the asset itself → gold: usually you own it through a fund, not the metal → MSTR: you own shares of a company that holds bitcoin that last one is where most people get confused. when you buy MSTR you're not just betting on bitcoin, you're also betting on the company, its debt and its decision to issue more shares so i built a dashboard with all three over the same period: return, volatility and max drawdown, with the exact instrument and source labeled for every number and the numbers show it. in the last run MSTR dropped 0.98% while bitcoin only dropped 0.33%, with a deeper drawdown too. the stock people buy "to get bitcoin exposure" fell about 3x harder than bitcoin itself. gold was the calmest of the three then i set up a recurring check that runs on its own and tells me what changed since the last one, so i don't rebuild this every week full walkthrough below 👇🏼 Minara AI #MinaraAI #FinancialAI #AgenticTrading #AgenticFinance

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$MSTR MicroStrategy: A Pyramid Scheme Lying To Investors? (Part 2) As of 9/30/2024, MSTR had 252,220 BTC on their balance sheet and 235,100,000 shares outstanding. ➡️This equates to .0010728 BTC /share. On November 20th, MSTR decided to raise $2.6B via convertibles, which is enough money to buy 25,490 new Bitcoin. For the convertible, the conversion price was set at $672.40 and the conversion ratio was set at 1.48. This means upon conversion, 3,866,720 new shares will be issued and outstanding. ➡️With full purchasing power, these investors should be entitled to 3,866,720/25,490=.0065922 BTC /share, as this was their contribution to the balance sheet. ➡️However, following the deal, the "New MicroStrategy" now has 277,710 Bitcoin on their balance sheet and 238,866,720 shares outstanding, which equates to just .0011621 BTC /share (a far cry from what they're entitled). ➡️These investors took a loss up front on their purchasing power (down to .0011621 BTC /share) because of "intelligent leverage," or the thought that more capital would come in after them and prop their own BTC /share up. After all, the holders of MSTR stock on 9/30/2024 saw an 8.32% increase in their BTC /share as a result of this financing round. Now, let's say MicroStrategy repeats this financing round. $2.6B in convertible debt that converts into 3,866,720 shares. ➡️Skipping the math, (for the same amount of financing) shareholders only saw a 7.44% increase in their BTC /share this time, which now sits at .0012486. ➡️This demonstrates that MSTR needs larger and larger financing rounds (endless funding) to prop up BTC /share, or their financing deals will keep making a smaller and smaller impact and investors will never reach the BTC /share that they're entitled to. 💥For exposure to MSTR's Bitcoin to be worth it, you need your BTC /share to rise from the current .0012486 to .0065922 (a 427.96% increase) or higher. Otherwise, you'd be better off buying your own Bitcoin because you'd own more if it in your pocket than you would in MSTR's balance sheet. Bull or bear market, there are better options for Bitcoin exposure right now. If any $MSTR bull wants to have a civil discussion about this, I'm open to it. I'm open to new thoughts or being proven wrong. But, I'm tired of the power trips and people degrading me as a human simply because I have an alternative thesis to theirs. My DMs are open.

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64,239 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

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29,697 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

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45,342 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BITCOIN WILL FLIP GOLD🔥 Think Bitcoin is going to eventually flip gold as the world's #1 asset? In that case, you should be bullish on $MSTR! NAPKIN MATH: Let's make it simple with 20 million circulating BTC and gold also sees some inflows so it's $40T by the time the BTC flippening of gold happens. $40T / 20 million = $2 million per Bitcoin. When does this happen? No idea. Let's say it happens in 2038. Let's say zero MSTR mNAV expansion. Zero new Bitcoin acquired. They pay 12% on STRC until then. Dividends paid with MSTR issuance. They pay 0.55% on their debt and it never goes away (lol). RESULT: Bitcoin goes from $62,875 to $2 million. BTC return: 31.81x MSTR goes from $93.28 to approximately $4,253. MSTR return: 45.60x Again: Zero new Bitcoin acquired. Zero mNAV expansion. The preferreds remain outstanding. The debt remains outstanding. MSTR spends approximately $22.7 billion servicing STRC dividends and debt interest over the 12 years, entirely through common-stock issuance. And MSTR still outperforms Bitcoin. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN? At the beginning, MSTR’s net senior claims equal approximately 292,251 BTC. At $2 million per Bitcoin, those exact same dollar claims equal only 9,188 BTC. The liabilities never disappear. They simply get beaten within an inch of their economic lives by the denominator. That releases approximately 283,064 BTC of residual value to the common equity without Strategy purchasing one additional sat. Common shareholders’ residual claim rises: 551,524 BTC → 834,587 BTC Paying 12 years of dividends and interest through MSTR issuance increases the share count by only: 384.6 million → 406.0 million Just 5.6% dilution. So CEBE per share rises: 143,404 sats → 205,562 sats That is 43.3% growth in claims-adjusted Bitcoin exposure per share while the gross Bitcoin treasury remains completely unchanged. The return equation becomes: 31.81x BTC appreciation × 1.433x CEBE-per-share growth × 1.00x mNAV change = 45.60x MSTR $10,000 invested in Bitcoin becomes approximately $318,000. $10,000 invested in MSTR becomes approximately. $456,000 MSTR creates roughly $138,000 of additional terminal wealth on the same $10,000 investment while buying zero additional Bitcoin. This is the part MSTR bears cannot process because their mental model of a capital structure is a shoebox with the word “DEBT” written on the lid in crayon. MSTR is not merely a static jar of Bitcoin. Common shareholders own the residual claim behind fixed-fiat liabilities wrapped around scarce collateral. As Bitcoin appreciates, those dollar liabilities consume fewer sats. The value released by that compression flows to common equity. At $2 million Bitcoin, the debt is still technically there. It just has the economic significance of a parking ticket taped to an aircraft carrier. The Bitcoin flippening would not merely dethrone gold. It would turn MSTR’s capital structure into a 12 year public execution of the dollar denominator:

Adam Livingston

24,380 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇

Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇

One Chair

33,701 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

What's going on with these metal rallies? Have they gone too far? Have we seen the top with record Call Market Options. And will Santa continue to rally markets into the end of the year? That and more in Today's Show: 👇👇👇

What's going on with these metal rallies? Have they gone too far? Have we seen the top with record Call Market Options. And will Santa continue to rally markets into the end of the year? That and more in Today's Show: 👇👇👇

fxevolution

15,558 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

🚨 Is Tesla in a “Goldilocks Moment”? Jo Bhakdi thinks $TSLA has a pretty interesting setup heading into September! The stock is still well off its previous highs, sentiment seems to be improving, and Cybercab joining Robotaxi on Sept. 3 could give investors something new to focus on. Jo is playing the setup with options, mostly short puts, but he’s also keeping an eye on a possible “sell the news” reaction if the stock runs too much beforehand. His bigger point: the next 12 months could look very different for Tesla. But for now, Sept. 3 is the date to watch. 🚀

🚨 Is Tesla in a “Goldilocks Moment”? Jo Bhakdi thinks $TSLA has a pretty interesting setup heading into September! The stock is still well off its previous highs, sentiment seems to be improving, and Cybercab joining Robotaxi on Sept. 3 could give investors something new to focus on. Jo is playing the setup with options, mostly short puts, but he’s also keeping an eye on a possible “sell the news” reaction if the stock runs too much beforehand. His bigger point: the next 12 months could look very different for Tesla. But for now, Sept. 3 is the date to watch. 🚀

Herbert Ong

24,276 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🧠 “You're swapping your dollars for Bitcoin upside and reduced downside and yield in perpetuity, which is nuts.” After being at Strategy world it was clear that the Strategy team views $STRK and $STRF as innovate products that can transform the market. Jeff Walton and Dan Hillery made it their mission to showcase the power of these new products on an off cycle live stream via . These products are absolutely going to eat the markets from the inside out. Liquidity and adoption will take time to mature. Listen to their conversation to get educated on who these products were built for and how Michael Saylor can leverage them to increase BTC torque. Key segments: 💸 Dual Yield Strategy: Strike offers 8.7% yield—430 bps above Treasuries—plus $MSTR upside, giving investors both fixed income and equity-style returns in one product [00:06:09]. 📊 Portfolio Flexibility Tool: $STRK suits conservative investors seeking yield with growth. Its structure lets you preserve capital while earning and gaining Bitcoin exposure [00:09:25]. ⚖️ Low-Probability Risk Profile: For $MSTR to default, $BTC must crash to ~$14K and stay there. With that event priced at 0.13% odds, $STRK offers asymmetric upside [00:13:01]. ♻️ Flywheel Effect Advantage: $STRK’s popularity helps $MSTR add more Bitcoin, boosting credit quality and yield—creating a cycle that reinforces itself over time [00:21:14]. 📈 Margin Efficiency Play: With 30% margin requirements, investors can leverage $STRK for high yield and MSTR exposure, outperforming many fixed income options [00:47:24].

J64

63,113 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

Adam Livingston

23,786 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten