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U.S. intelligence assessed that China considered supplying Iran with radar and air defense (SAM) systems. Reports also suggest Iran used Chinese satellite imagery during the war, raising concerns over Beijing’s indirect support.

18,463 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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IRAN: What about China and Russia? Certainly they’re not going to provide much kinetic support, but they do not want to see the regime fall. Are either of them providing any support? Israel has secured protection from both the Americans and the Russians, yet it remains poorly regarded by the Chinese. The Russians delivered MiG-29s, some EW systems, and a few helicopters, but to this day, they are postponing the delivery of more modern aircraft. Tel Aviv and Moscow maintain a very strong connection forged by the Soviet diaspora; today, roughly 20% of Israeli households speak Russian. The Chinese, for their part, have raised suspicions regarding the supply of radars and intelligence, but they are proven to be using satellites to photograph and publicly expose American military assets online - a clear demonstration of their involvement and power. This means that, unlike during the 12-day war, Iranian forces will now have direct satellite support. Ironically or not, China’s role in intelligence with Iran appears to mirror exactly the U.S. role with Ukraine. Regarding rumors of Iran receiving S-400s, there is zero evidence of this, and based on Putin’s statements, I do not believe they will proceed. Similarly, there is no visual evidence that the Chinese have provided long-range HQ-9B surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems or YLC-8B radars to Iran. Personally I believe it is possible that radars were delivered, though there is no confirmation. To date, there is no evidence of any Chinese cargo planes landing in Iran over the last few months. Most of the material delivered comes via Mahan Air Boeing 747s. There were also Cargolux flights, but those were also Boeing 747s, and for an HQ-9B system to be delivered, a much larger military airlifter would be required. Above all, these long-range defense systems would have been commissioned and showcased as a deterrent in a country on the brink of being attacked, which has not happened. However, Iran has invested heavily in revamping its own systems, as I reported previously. The Chinese also maintain a very close relationship with the UAE and the Saudis which, similar to the Russian position, limits the extent of massive support for Iran. Iran finds itself in a situation where its two main allies do not hesitate to provide political and intelligence support but remain reticent regarding direct military equipment. Nonetheless, this is a situation Iran has been used to for years, and it has been the primary driver for the development of its own military ecosystem.

Patricia Marins

36,416 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce