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Using local knowledge for road widening and landslide prevention in #Uttarakhand : This landslide happened yesterday morning at a location that is around 25 km from #Uttarakashi on way to #Gangotri. I was informed by one of the nation's most well respected scientists and geologist Dr Navin Juyal that...

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Anoop Nautiyal

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15,326 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Наука и технологииОбразование#Uttarakhand#Uttarakashi#Gangotri
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This is the video of Dr. Shahnawaz (with English & Urdu Subtitles) in which he claims that he is not using the social media id which is subject of controversy and he is being accused of being a disbeliever and that he is open to investigation by the Police and FIA. Dr. Shahnawaz was accused of blasphemy and later killed in a Police encounter. The IGP Sindh has also constituted an inquiry committee to investigate the Police encounter in which Dr. Shahnawaz was killed.

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The scale of this landslide is mind-blowing! About 1,500 people have been evacuated from Niscemi in Sicily after a landslide caused by heavy rain from Cyclone Harry tore through a hillside on the town’s edge. The landslide, which started moving on Sunday, has now formed a 4 km-long chasm that keeps widening, putting homes and the historic centre at risk of collapse. Officials say buildings within 50 to 70 metres of the slide are expected to fall. No one has been hurt, but homes have been damaged, schools are closed, and the road to Gela is shut. Ongoing movement and more rain are making the situation worse. 📹 Italian Fire Brigade
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The scale of this landslide is mind-blowing! About 1,500 people have been evacuated from Niscemi in Sicily after a landslide caused by heavy rain from Cyclone Harry tore through a hillside on the town’s edge. The landslide, which started moving on Sunday, has now formed a 4 km-long chasm that keeps widening, putting homes and the historic centre at risk of collapse. Officials say buildings within 50 to 70 metres of the slide are expected to fall. No one has been hurt, but homes have been damaged, schools are closed, and the road to Gela is shut. Ongoing movement and more rain are making the situation worse. 📹 Italian Fire Brigade

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🚨 ELON MUSK: “You can tell which side is the good side and which side is the bad side by which side wishes to restrict freedom of speech. The side that is restricting freedom of speech (the Hitlers, Stalins, and Mussolinis of the world) had very strong censorship on freedom of speech. That’s one of the signs that they are the bad guys. Restriction on speech and large government is fundamentally fascist. Ironically, in pushing for censorship, it makes it clear that the left is the side that is against freedom; and freedom of speech is one of the many freedoms we should have as a civil society. Idea should win on the strength of their arguments. They should not win because they are suppressed.”
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🚨 ELON MUSK: “You can tell which side is the good side and which side is the bad side by which side wishes to restrict freedom of speech. The side that is restricting freedom of speech (the Hitlers, Stalins, and Mussolinis of the world) had very strong censorship on freedom of speech. That’s one of the signs that they are the bad guys. Restriction on speech and large government is fundamentally fascist. Ironically, in pushing for censorship, it makes it clear that the left is the side that is against freedom; and freedom of speech is one of the many freedoms we should have as a civil society. Idea should win on the strength of their arguments. They should not win because they are suppressed.”

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.David Deutsch: “There is an inherent conflict in the human condition—both individually and in society—between the need to preserve existing knowledge and the need to create new knowledge. For most of human history, preserving existing knowledge trumped any kind of attempt to improve knowledge. Because attempts to improve knowledge risk error. Or rather, to be exact, it risks error that has never occurred before. There were plenty of errors that had occurred before. Plenty of kings got overthrown because they couldn’t solve the problem of how to fend off the enemy. But they were in familiar territory conceptually, and they were afraid of changing culture. This fear of changing culture was built into culture itself. And this conflict exists to this day. The most extreme example known to me in the West, anyway, is the conflict in education between preserving existing knowledge and creating new knowledge. Even today, education—education theory—is conceived as the theory of how to decant existing knowledge from the brains that already know it to the brains that do not yet know it. And that’s what Popper calls the ‘bucket theory of the mind’—that the mind is a bucket and knowledge is a fluid. What he stressed, and what I always also want to stress, is that not only is that a mischaracterization of knowledge and of the use of knowledge, but it is the wrong way around. As a practical matter, even right back two million years ago, the transmission of cultural knowledge was not something done by the transmitter; it was something done by the receiver.”
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.David Deutsch: “There is an inherent conflict in the human condition—both individually and in society—between the need to preserve existing knowledge and the need to create new knowledge. For most of human history, preserving existing knowledge trumped any kind of attempt to improve knowledge. Because attempts to improve knowledge risk error. Or rather, to be exact, it risks error that has never occurred before. There were plenty of errors that had occurred before. Plenty of kings got overthrown because they couldn’t solve the problem of how to fend off the enemy. But they were in familiar territory conceptually, and they were afraid of changing culture. This fear of changing culture was built into culture itself. And this conflict exists to this day. The most extreme example known to me in the West, anyway, is the conflict in education between preserving existing knowledge and creating new knowledge. Even today, education—education theory—is conceived as the theory of how to decant existing knowledge from the brains that already know it to the brains that do not yet know it. And that’s what Popper calls the ‘bucket theory of the mind’—that the mind is a bucket and knowledge is a fluid. What he stressed, and what I always also want to stress, is that not only is that a mischaracterization of knowledge and of the use of knowledge, but it is the wrong way around. As a practical matter, even right back two million years ago, the transmission of cultural knowledge was not something done by the transmitter; it was something done by the receiver.”

Arjun Khemani

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WATCH: Temple Israel Rabbi Jen Lader SLAMS anyone using the suspect's alleged loss of family in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon last week as an excuse for yesterday's attack... "My thoughts are that any relationship that -- that any news organization or anyone is -- is talking about in terms of [the suspect's] family's loss of life -- which is a tragedy in and of itself -- any connection to an attack on an American synagogue in the suburbs of metro Detroit is intensely anti-Semitic and inappropriate and and that's something that -- that we've all been been dealing with too, that you know, using that as an excuse for why somebody might have come after a group of American Jews in Detroit. That's anti-Semitism at its -- at its -- at its peak, and -- and we're hoping that that is not the story that people ar telling. And instead, the story is that that American Jews shouldn't have to live this way in fear to send their children to preschool."
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WATCH: Temple Israel Rabbi Jen Lader SLAMS anyone using the suspect's alleged loss of family in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon last week as an excuse for yesterday's attack... "My thoughts are that any relationship that -- that any news organization or anyone is -- is talking about in terms of [the suspect's] family's loss of life -- which is a tragedy in and of itself -- any connection to an attack on an American synagogue in the suburbs of metro Detroit is intensely anti-Semitic and inappropriate and and that's something that -- that we've all been been dealing with too, that you know, using that as an excuse for why somebody might have come after a group of American Jews in Detroit. That's anti-Semitism at its -- at its -- at its peak, and -- and we're hoping that that is not the story that people ar telling. And instead, the story is that that American Jews shouldn't have to live this way in fear to send their children to preschool."

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.Logan on our latest piece in Human Progress about what unifies the enemies of civilization: What unifies all of the enemies of civilization is that they all slow down the growth of knowledge. Now, you ask, how can we take advantage of this fact, namely that all of the enemies of civilization share in common this feature that they curb the growth of knowledge? This fact tells us that we can, if we so choose and if we make the right decisions, outpace them in the growth of knowledge. So, one strategy to defeat the enemies of civilization is basically to outpace them in this great war of memes and growing wealth and knowledge, such that eventually, the memes that comprise the enemies of civilization, as well as the wealth that the enemies of civilization control, is an ever smaller fraction of the total meme pool and wealth that civilization has to offer. So, this is what success would look like if we think about outpacing them. But there's also the strategy of replacing the memes that comprise the enemies of civilization with better ideas. This is just a fancy way of saying we could also persuade people. So that would be a kind of inside-out approach, rather than the out-pacing, which is kind of from the outside in. And of course, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can continue to build and outpace the enemies of civilization while persuading people that the relevant ideas that curb the growth of knowledge are mistaken. And by the way, just to make the conversation a little less abstract, the enemies of civilization that we wrote about in our piece, which is an excerpt of the script we wrote for your upcoming documentary, those enemies are socialism, environmentalism, scientism, relativism, dogmatism, and doomerism. And I don't think I ever told you this, Arjun, but what I like about the list we came up with is that understanding the inner workings of each of these enemies of civilization, that is to say, understanding the how and why of how each enemy of civilization curbs the growth of knowledge, gives unique insights into the nature of progress and epistemology. This clip was recorded and made using Airchat.
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.Logan on our latest piece in Human Progress about what unifies the enemies of civilization: What unifies all of the enemies of civilization is that they all slow down the growth of knowledge. Now, you ask, how can we take advantage of this fact, namely that all of the enemies of civilization share in common this feature that they curb the growth of knowledge? This fact tells us that we can, if we so choose and if we make the right decisions, outpace them in the growth of knowledge. So, one strategy to defeat the enemies of civilization is basically to outpace them in this great war of memes and growing wealth and knowledge, such that eventually, the memes that comprise the enemies of civilization, as well as the wealth that the enemies of civilization control, is an ever smaller fraction of the total meme pool and wealth that civilization has to offer. So, this is what success would look like if we think about outpacing them. But there's also the strategy of replacing the memes that comprise the enemies of civilization with better ideas. This is just a fancy way of saying we could also persuade people. So that would be a kind of inside-out approach, rather than the out-pacing, which is kind of from the outside in. And of course, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can continue to build and outpace the enemies of civilization while persuading people that the relevant ideas that curb the growth of knowledge are mistaken. And by the way, just to make the conversation a little less abstract, the enemies of civilization that we wrote about in our piece, which is an excerpt of the script we wrote for your upcoming documentary, those enemies are socialism, environmentalism, scientism, relativism, dogmatism, and doomerism. And I don't think I ever told you this, Arjun, but what I like about the list we came up with is that understanding the inner workings of each of these enemies of civilization, that is to say, understanding the how and why of how each enemy of civilization curbs the growth of knowledge, gives unique insights into the nature of progress and epistemology. This clip was recorded and made using Airchat.

Arjun Khemani

23,354 просмотров • 1 год назад

Having driven down to Maphisa yesterday to celebrate the 46th anniversary of Zimbabwe’s Independence I remain deeply concerned about the state of the road to Maphisa. Although construction work has been done on virtually the whole length of the road it is nowhere near finished. In fact for much of the length of the road all that has been done is the grading of either side of what used to be narrow tar. The narrow bridges remain the same and the old narrow tar is in very bad condition. In fact most the road was extremely dangerous. I recognize that contractors are still on site and had parked their construction vehicles to facilitate the high volume of traffic yesterday, so remain hopeful that they will remain on the road until it has been completed all the way from Bulawayo to Maphisa. My fear is that now that Independence Day is over that the contractors will move elsewhere leaving most of the road in a worse state than it was before the work started. I have already had one report of construction vehicles being moved to Masvingo and hope that isn’t going to be a trend. I call on Government to confirm that construction will continue along the entire length of the road and to give an indication when it expects the road to be finished.
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Having driven down to Maphisa yesterday to celebrate the 46th anniversary of Zimbabwe’s Independence I remain deeply concerned about the state of the road to Maphisa. Although construction work has been done on virtually the whole length of the road it is nowhere near finished. In fact for much of the length of the road all that has been done is the grading of either side of what used to be narrow tar. The narrow bridges remain the same and the old narrow tar is in very bad condition. In fact most the road was extremely dangerous. I recognize that contractors are still on site and had parked their construction vehicles to facilitate the high volume of traffic yesterday, so remain hopeful that they will remain on the road until it has been completed all the way from Bulawayo to Maphisa. My fear is that now that Independence Day is over that the contractors will move elsewhere leaving most of the road in a worse state than it was before the work started. I have already had one report of construction vehicles being moved to Masvingo and hope that isn’t going to be a trend. I call on Government to confirm that construction will continue along the entire length of the road and to give an indication when it expects the road to be finished.

David Coltart

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🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NAILED IT: "When a man can get elected in a landslide, winning every, think of it, seven swing states win them all. We win the popular vote! We win the Electoral College by a tremendous amount. And I got no good press!" "Think of it. Only one thing, that only means one thing, these people are not respected, they're just not respected. And we have to have a press that's respected!" "When you can win an election where they say that I got 94 percent bad press, think of it, the other side got 94 percent good press." "When they can get 94 percent and you win in a landslide, that means the press is not respected. People have no confidence in it."
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🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NAILED IT: "When a man can get elected in a landslide, winning every, think of it, seven swing states win them all. We win the popular vote! We win the Electoral College by a tremendous amount. And I got no good press!" "Think of it. Only one thing, that only means one thing, these people are not respected, they're just not respected. And we have to have a press that's respected!" "When you can win an election where they say that I got 94 percent bad press, think of it, the other side got 94 percent good press." "When they can get 94 percent and you win in a landslide, that means the press is not respected. People have no confidence in it."

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Elon Musk: You can tell which side is the good side and which side is the bad side by which side wishes to restrict freedom of speech The side that is restricting freedom of speech you know, that would have been the Hitlers, Stalins, and Mussolinis of the world They had very strong censorship, very strong restrictions on speech. That’s one of the signs that they’re the bad guys In fact, a restriction on speech and large government is fundamentally fascist, obviously. So ironically, in pushing for censorship, it makes it very clear that the left is the side that is against freedom Freedom of speech is simply one of many freedoms that we should have as a civil society because ideas should win on the strength of their arguments. They should not win because they are suppressed

X Freeze

13,602,916 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

"I worked for the Speaker of the House. I worked for the President of the United States. One of the things you learn in those jobs is that ultimately no one is fully in charge of anything, and the world is very, very complex. I would read in the Washington Post how Republican leaders had all these plans and they were going to pull things this way or that way. And then I'd get to work and to say that no one had a plan would be a gross understatement. No one had any idea what was going to happen that afternoon. The idea that in a free society somebody is pulling the strings and someone has a nine-step plan and you're just a pawn in it is just very, very implausible. Our society doesn't really work that way. Our elites now are not ultra-competent. You can say a lot of things about them, but I would not say that we have ultra-competent leaders of any institution. I can see the appeal of wanting to believe that it's all a false flag or a plan. But when you actually see the system work—it's both good news and bad news—but nobody's in charge of everything."
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"I worked for the Speaker of the House. I worked for the President of the United States. One of the things you learn in those jobs is that ultimately no one is fully in charge of anything, and the world is very, very complex. I would read in the Washington Post how Republican leaders had all these plans and they were going to pull things this way or that way. And then I'd get to work and to say that no one had a plan would be a gross understatement. No one had any idea what was going to happen that afternoon. The idea that in a free society somebody is pulling the strings and someone has a nine-step plan and you're just a pawn in it is just very, very implausible. Our society doesn't really work that way. Our elites now are not ultra-competent. You can say a lot of things about them, but I would not say that we have ultra-competent leaders of any institution. I can see the appeal of wanting to believe that it's all a false flag or a plan. But when you actually see the system work—it's both good news and bad news—but nobody's in charge of everything."

Michael Shermer

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GROKIPEDIA IS BEING RENAMED TO ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA "One of the things that we're doing that I think is interesting is Grokipedia, which we're going to rename down the road to Encyclopedia Galactica in honor of Isaac Asimov and Douglas Adams, who both mentioned that in books The idea behind Encyclopedia Galactica is to create an open-source repository of all knowledgea distillation of all knowledge " Open source means anyone can access it, anyone can use it, and if other people want to train on it, they can do so" We want to create copies of this and distribute them throughout Earth, and even put them on the moon, Mars, and out in deep space, as a sort of modern-day Library of Alexandria It was a great tragedy that the Library of Alexandria burnt down. In order to preserve this knowledge, I think we want to literally etch it in stone and distribute it" -Elon Musk

X Freeze

75,375 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

English Language actually Damages your Brain to a Great Extent As All the Knowledge of Your Thousands of lineages of Ancestors stored in the DNA is Sanskrit & local language made from it. Not the Broken language that was meant to make you dumb & Establish control Dr. Shah
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English Language actually Damages your Brain to a Great Extent As All the Knowledge of Your Thousands of lineages of Ancestors stored in the DNA is Sanskrit & local language made from it. Not the Broken language that was meant to make you dumb & Establish control Dr. Shah

Susmit🔥AS Quotes🌌🌏🕉️

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“It is difficult to convey what it means to speak here on behalf of the people of Palestine as they endure genocide. This is one of the most documented crimes in modern history. Live-streamed for all to see. Recorded by those suffering, in the hope that the world watching would act — and even recorded by those committing the crimes, confident they will never be held to account. Which one of them will we prove right? The victims or the perpetrators? Peoples around the world mobilized against this genocide. Human rights organizations, UN experts, and many states recognized this genocide. And we are gathered here to speak of the prevention and punishment of that very crime. But where were the measures to prevent genocide in Palestine? Where are the measures to punish it?” State of Palestine statement at the 10th Anniversary of the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime.
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“It is difficult to convey what it means to speak here on behalf of the people of Palestine as they endure genocide. This is one of the most documented crimes in modern history. Live-streamed for all to see. Recorded by those suffering, in the hope that the world watching would act — and even recorded by those committing the crimes, confident they will never be held to account. Which one of them will we prove right? The victims or the perpetrators? Peoples around the world mobilized against this genocide. Human rights organizations, UN experts, and many states recognized this genocide. And we are gathered here to speak of the prevention and punishment of that very crime. But where were the measures to prevent genocide in Palestine? Where are the measures to punish it?” State of Palestine statement at the 10th Anniversary of the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime.

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28,198 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

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This church is located in the village of Ropoto, Greece and it's possibly one of the most crooked in the world due to a landslide occurred in 2012. [📹exploringtheunbeatenpath]

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This church is located in the village of Ropoto, Greece and it's possibly one of the most crooked in the world due to a landslide occurred in 2012. [📹soiledis11]
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This church is located in the village of Ropoto, Greece and it's possibly one of the most crooked in the world due to a landslide occurred in 2012. [📹soiledis11]

Massimo

177,124 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Cracks Tearing Through Totaghati, Major Geological Threat Looms in #Uttarakhand: Before you start reading this post, here are a few important points to set some context. A. Totaghati is a critical stretch on the #Rishikesh–#Badrinath National Highway (NH-7) in Uttarakhand. It is considered one of the most challenging and sensitive parts of the #CharDhamYatra route and lies about 40 Kilometers from Rishikesh. B. The expert explaining the Totaghti situation in the video is one of the most well respected geologists of our state. His name is Prof. MPS Bisht and he is in conversation with Shri Ramesh Bhatt of Devbhoomi Dialogue. C. The video is recent, recorded in the aftermath of the August 5, 2025 #Dharali tragedy in #Uttarkashi. Now let's talk about the issue: A significant geological threat is looming over Totaghati,. Known for its narrow roads, sharp curves, and rocky terrain for decades, Totaghati is now emerging as a major challenge for the national highway due to the appearance of large cracks and fractures on the mountain rocks. Experts warn that if these cracks continue to widen, an entire section of the mountain may collapse, potentially cutting off access to Badrinath, #Kedarnath, and large parts of the #Garhwal region from Rishikesh. Senior geologist Prof. MPS Bisht, who has been studying the hills and internal structures of Uttarakhand for the past three/four decades has informed us all that multiple significant fractures have been discovered during the past few months of monitoring the rock formations in Totaghati. According to Prof. Bisht, the rocks in this area are made of limestone, which naturally develop fractures and clints (deep fissures) over time. He has issued a warning that the situation in Totaghati could pose a devastating blow, not just for Char Dham pilgrims, but also for the local economy and military transport. His team has been regularly identifying such critical locations and notifying departments including the National Highways Authority of India. Prof. Bisht explained that these cracks are hundreds of meters deep, cutting through the entire mountain, not just the surface. This indicates that the threat lies deep within the internal structure of the mountain. The formation of these cracks at Totaghati is such that if these cracks widen or break, an entire section of the mountain could slide down. I am sharing this important note/video and tagging PMO India NHAI NDMA India | राष्ट्रीय आपदा प्रबंधन प्राधिकरण 🇮🇳 Office Of Nitin Gadkari ADG PI - INDIAN ARMY Uttarakhand DIPR with the hope that in case this has not come to their knowledge/notice; and if they get to see this now; this grim challenge can be escalated and due/necessary action taken on urgency.
1:07

Cracks Tearing Through Totaghati, Major Geological Threat Looms in #Uttarakhand: Before you start reading this post, here are a few important points to set some context. A. Totaghati is a critical stretch on the #Rishikesh–#Badrinath National Highway (NH-7) in Uttarakhand. It is considered one of the most challenging and sensitive parts of the #CharDhamYatra route and lies about 40 Kilometers from Rishikesh. B. The expert explaining the Totaghti situation in the video is one of the most well respected geologists of our state. His name is Prof. MPS Bisht and he is in conversation with Shri Ramesh Bhatt of Devbhoomi Dialogue. C. The video is recent, recorded in the aftermath of the August 5, 2025 #Dharali tragedy in #Uttarkashi. Now let's talk about the issue: A significant geological threat is looming over Totaghati,. Known for its narrow roads, sharp curves, and rocky terrain for decades, Totaghati is now emerging as a major challenge for the national highway due to the appearance of large cracks and fractures on the mountain rocks. Experts warn that if these cracks continue to widen, an entire section of the mountain may collapse, potentially cutting off access to Badrinath, #Kedarnath, and large parts of the #Garhwal region from Rishikesh. Senior geologist Prof. MPS Bisht, who has been studying the hills and internal structures of Uttarakhand for the past three/four decades has informed us all that multiple significant fractures have been discovered during the past few months of monitoring the rock formations in Totaghati. According to Prof. Bisht, the rocks in this area are made of limestone, which naturally develop fractures and clints (deep fissures) over time. He has issued a warning that the situation in Totaghati could pose a devastating blow, not just for Char Dham pilgrims, but also for the local economy and military transport. His team has been regularly identifying such critical locations and notifying departments including the National Highways Authority of India. Prof. Bisht explained that these cracks are hundreds of meters deep, cutting through the entire mountain, not just the surface. This indicates that the threat lies deep within the internal structure of the mountain. The formation of these cracks at Totaghati is such that if these cracks widen or break, an entire section of the mountain could slide down. I am sharing this important note/video and tagging PMO India NHAI NDMA India | राष्ट्रीय आपदा प्रबंधन प्राधिकरण 🇮🇳 Office Of Nitin Gadkari ADG PI - INDIAN ARMY Uttarakhand DIPR with the hope that in case this has not come to their knowledge/notice; and if they get to see this now; this grim challenge can be escalated and due/necessary action taken on urgency.

Anoop Nautiyal

28,320 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

I think we've been deprived of a lot more than flying cars and Mars colonies. I think civilization is currently burdened by a debilitating pessimism. Not just prophecies of doom, because they've always existed. There's something deeper. The term technological fix has become as pejorative as Luddite used to be. The aspiration for technological solutions is now widely regarded as naive. A fantasy that ignores the inevitability of missteps and side effects. And that naivety is labeled optimism. Because optimism has come to mean something like the assumption that the best will happen, or probably will. And pessimism that the worst will. They're both false as general principles. No one adopts them. They're irrationalities that people accuse each other of having. And everyone classifies themselves as somewhere in the middle. And perhaps admitting to a slight bias in one direction or the other. And therefore admitting to slight irrationality. But in fact, both ends of the spectrum and the middle are predictions of success or failure. Maybe probabilistic. Derived only from an attitude or a principle. Not from explanations of why reality should match them. And prediction without explanation is prophecy. Which is reliance on the supernatural. Which isn't a rational attitude to planning for the future. So what is? Well, here's the bad news. Conventional pessimism is right that civilization has no guaranteed future. Nor does our species. The overwhelming majority of civilizations and species that have ever existed are now extinct. Including significantly every one of our cousin species. Every species that has ever tried to survive by creating knowledge that was not in their genome. New explanatory knowledge. How to make clothes and fire and farming. And to live the new ways of life that that enabled. That is our biological niche. To survive through the exercise of creativity. And we are the last species left in that niche. For such species, stasis is not available. We conquer problems by creating knowledge or they conquer us. So there's nothing new in our situation of all sorts of existential danger. It's undeniable that the worst can happen. Because the very worst has already happened many times. So now for the good news. All those civilizations who believed that their famines and droughts and disasters were divine punishment for their wickedness or whatever. In reality, it was just that they didn't know enough about irrigation, medicine, and so on. If the ancient Athenians had known about antibiotics or just about hygiene, they could have prevented the plague that contributed to the fall of their nascent optimistic society. And if they had, then as Carl Sagan speculated, we might now be at the stars. And technology would be regulating trivialities like the planetary climate. As automatically as it's now regulating the temperature in this room. We know that's possible because of a momentous dichotomy that follows directly from the rejection of the supernatural. Namely, every transformation of physical systems that is not forbidden by laws of physics is achievable given the right knowledge. And hence, the rational attitude to the future is what I call optimism. The principle of optimism, namely that all evils are caused by lack of knowledge. That isn't a prophecy of success. It's an explanation for failure. If we fail at anything that's physically possible, it's because of some knowledge that we fail to create. Admittedly, some of the dangers that we currently foresee are themselves side effects of knowledge creation. But trying to slow that down won't help because what do you slow down? In 1900, no one could possibly have foreseen that research in pure physics into the esoteric properties of the element uranium would within 50 years become the centerpiece of everyone's existential fear. Or that another half century later, the centerpiece would be carbon dioxide. In our future too, the greatest dangers will inevitably be unforeseen. And the only type of knowledge that's capable of dealing with those is fundamental knowledge of universal regularities in nature. Any area of fundamental research could suddenly become essential to our survival. Biology, engineering. In World War II, pure mathematics was. We also need knowledge of how to structure human institutions to retain the miraculous property of keeping civilization stable under rapid change. Traditions of criticism and error correction. And we need wealth, meaning the ability to deploy technology in practice. And there's a final consideration. The world doesn't just contain optimists and pessimists and wise and unwise technology users. It contains enemies of civilization as well. And knowledge is impartial. It can be used for good or evil. But the enemies of civilization all necessarily have one thing in common. They are wrong. And so they fear error correction and truth. And that's why they resist changes in their ideas, which makes them less creative and slower to innovate. So our defense against the existential danger from malevolent uses of technology, the only defense, is speed. The good guys must use their only advantage to stay ahead. David Deutsch
7:28

I think we've been deprived of a lot more than flying cars and Mars colonies. I think civilization is currently burdened by a debilitating pessimism. Not just prophecies of doom, because they've always existed. There's something deeper. The term technological fix has become as pejorative as Luddite used to be. The aspiration for technological solutions is now widely regarded as naive. A fantasy that ignores the inevitability of missteps and side effects. And that naivety is labeled optimism. Because optimism has come to mean something like the assumption that the best will happen, or probably will. And pessimism that the worst will. They're both false as general principles. No one adopts them. They're irrationalities that people accuse each other of having. And everyone classifies themselves as somewhere in the middle. And perhaps admitting to a slight bias in one direction or the other. And therefore admitting to slight irrationality. But in fact, both ends of the spectrum and the middle are predictions of success or failure. Maybe probabilistic. Derived only from an attitude or a principle. Not from explanations of why reality should match them. And prediction without explanation is prophecy. Which is reliance on the supernatural. Which isn't a rational attitude to planning for the future. So what is? Well, here's the bad news. Conventional pessimism is right that civilization has no guaranteed future. Nor does our species. The overwhelming majority of civilizations and species that have ever existed are now extinct. Including significantly every one of our cousin species. Every species that has ever tried to survive by creating knowledge that was not in their genome. New explanatory knowledge. How to make clothes and fire and farming. And to live the new ways of life that that enabled. That is our biological niche. To survive through the exercise of creativity. And we are the last species left in that niche. For such species, stasis is not available. We conquer problems by creating knowledge or they conquer us. So there's nothing new in our situation of all sorts of existential danger. It's undeniable that the worst can happen. Because the very worst has already happened many times. So now for the good news. All those civilizations who believed that their famines and droughts and disasters were divine punishment for their wickedness or whatever. In reality, it was just that they didn't know enough about irrigation, medicine, and so on. If the ancient Athenians had known about antibiotics or just about hygiene, they could have prevented the plague that contributed to the fall of their nascent optimistic society. And if they had, then as Carl Sagan speculated, we might now be at the stars. And technology would be regulating trivialities like the planetary climate. As automatically as it's now regulating the temperature in this room. We know that's possible because of a momentous dichotomy that follows directly from the rejection of the supernatural. Namely, every transformation of physical systems that is not forbidden by laws of physics is achievable given the right knowledge. And hence, the rational attitude to the future is what I call optimism. The principle of optimism, namely that all evils are caused by lack of knowledge. That isn't a prophecy of success. It's an explanation for failure. If we fail at anything that's physically possible, it's because of some knowledge that we fail to create. Admittedly, some of the dangers that we currently foresee are themselves side effects of knowledge creation. But trying to slow that down won't help because what do you slow down? In 1900, no one could possibly have foreseen that research in pure physics into the esoteric properties of the element uranium would within 50 years become the centerpiece of everyone's existential fear. Or that another half century later, the centerpiece would be carbon dioxide. In our future too, the greatest dangers will inevitably be unforeseen. And the only type of knowledge that's capable of dealing with those is fundamental knowledge of universal regularities in nature. Any area of fundamental research could suddenly become essential to our survival. Biology, engineering. In World War II, pure mathematics was. We also need knowledge of how to structure human institutions to retain the miraculous property of keeping civilization stable under rapid change. Traditions of criticism and error correction. And we need wealth, meaning the ability to deploy technology in practice. And there's a final consideration. The world doesn't just contain optimists and pessimists and wise and unwise technology users. It contains enemies of civilization as well. And knowledge is impartial. It can be used for good or evil. But the enemies of civilization all necessarily have one thing in common. They are wrong. And so they fear error correction and truth. And that's why they resist changes in their ideas, which makes them less creative and slower to innovate. So our defense against the existential danger from malevolent uses of technology, the only defense, is speed. The good guys must use their only advantage to stay ahead. David Deutsch

Deutsch Explains

38,220 просмотров • 1 год назад

.Naval: You have a beautiful definition of knowledge, which most people don’t even try to tackle, about how knowledge perpetuates itself in the environment. You gave some really good examples. One was around genes. Successful, highly adapted genes contain a lot of knowledge and can cause themselves to be replicated because they’re survivors. In the same way, knowledge itself is a survivor, in that if you transmit to me the knowledge of how to build a computer, it’s an incredibly useful thing. I’m going to build more and more computers and that knowledge will be passed on. Your underlying point that you repeated here was if you want to understand the physical universe you have to understand knowledge, because it is the thing that over time takes over and changes more and more the universe—more than almost anything else. You have to understand all the explanations behind it. You can’t just say “particle collisions” because that explains everything, so it explains nothing. It’s not a useful level to operate at. Therefore, the things that create knowledge are uniquely influential in the universe. And as far as we know, there are only two systems that create knowledge. There’s evolution and there are humans. But is there a difference even between these two forms of knowledge creation, between evolution and between humans? David Deutsch: Yes. I have argued that the human way of creating knowledge is the ultimate one, that there aren’t any more powerful ones than that. This is the argument against the supernatural. Assuming that there is a form of knowledge creation that’s more powerful than ours is equivalent to invoking the supernatural, which is therefore a bad explanation—as invoking the supernatural always is. The difference between biological evolution and human creative thought is that biological evolution is inherently limited in its range. That’s because biological evolution has no foresight. It can’t see a problem and conjecture a solution. Whenever biological evolution produces a solution to something, it’s always before natural selection has even begun. This is Charles Darwin’s insight. This is the difference between Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution and the other theories of evolution that had been around for a century or more before that, including Charles Darwin’s grandfather and Lamarck. The thing they didn’t get is that the creation of knowledge in evolution begins before. That means that biological evolution can’t reach places that are not reachable by successive improvements, each of which allows a viable organism to exist. Creationists say that biological evolution has, in fact, reached things that are not reachable by incremental steps, each of which is a viable organism. They’re factually mistaken. The thing which they have in mind is the idea of a creator who can imagine things that don’t exist and who can create an idea that is not the culmination of a whole load of viable things. A thinking being can create something that’s a culmination of a whole load of non-viable things. Explanatory creativity makes humans unique Out of all the billions and billions of species that have ever existed, none of them has ever made a campfire, even though many of them would’ve been helped by having the genetic capacity to make campfires. The reason it didn’t happen in the biosphere is that there is no such thing as making a partially functional campfire; whereas there is, for example, with making hot water. The bombardier beetles squirt boiling water at their enemies. You can easily see that just squirting cold water at your enemies is not totally unhelpful. Then making it a bit hotter and a bit hotter. Squirting boiling water no doubt required many adaptations to make sure the beetle didn’t boil itself while it was making this boiling water. That happened because there was a sequence of steps in between, all of which were useful. But with campfires, it’s very hard to see how that could happen. Humans have explanatory creativity. Once you have that, you can get to the moon. You can cause asteroids which are heading towards the earth to turn around and go away. Perhaps no other planet in the universe has that power, and it has it only because of the presence of explanatory creativity on it.
4:31

.Naval: You have a beautiful definition of knowledge, which most people don’t even try to tackle, about how knowledge perpetuates itself in the environment. You gave some really good examples. One was around genes. Successful, highly adapted genes contain a lot of knowledge and can cause themselves to be replicated because they’re survivors. In the same way, knowledge itself is a survivor, in that if you transmit to me the knowledge of how to build a computer, it’s an incredibly useful thing. I’m going to build more and more computers and that knowledge will be passed on. Your underlying point that you repeated here was if you want to understand the physical universe you have to understand knowledge, because it is the thing that over time takes over and changes more and more the universe—more than almost anything else. You have to understand all the explanations behind it. You can’t just say “particle collisions” because that explains everything, so it explains nothing. It’s not a useful level to operate at. Therefore, the things that create knowledge are uniquely influential in the universe. And as far as we know, there are only two systems that create knowledge. There’s evolution and there are humans. But is there a difference even between these two forms of knowledge creation, between evolution and between humans? David Deutsch: Yes. I have argued that the human way of creating knowledge is the ultimate one, that there aren’t any more powerful ones than that. This is the argument against the supernatural. Assuming that there is a form of knowledge creation that’s more powerful than ours is equivalent to invoking the supernatural, which is therefore a bad explanation—as invoking the supernatural always is. The difference between biological evolution and human creative thought is that biological evolution is inherently limited in its range. That’s because biological evolution has no foresight. It can’t see a problem and conjecture a solution. Whenever biological evolution produces a solution to something, it’s always before natural selection has even begun. This is Charles Darwin’s insight. This is the difference between Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution and the other theories of evolution that had been around for a century or more before that, including Charles Darwin’s grandfather and Lamarck. The thing they didn’t get is that the creation of knowledge in evolution begins before. That means that biological evolution can’t reach places that are not reachable by successive improvements, each of which allows a viable organism to exist. Creationists say that biological evolution has, in fact, reached things that are not reachable by incremental steps, each of which is a viable organism. They’re factually mistaken. The thing which they have in mind is the idea of a creator who can imagine things that don’t exist and who can create an idea that is not the culmination of a whole load of viable things. A thinking being can create something that’s a culmination of a whole load of non-viable things. Explanatory creativity makes humans unique Out of all the billions and billions of species that have ever existed, none of them has ever made a campfire, even though many of them would’ve been helped by having the genetic capacity to make campfires. The reason it didn’t happen in the biosphere is that there is no such thing as making a partially functional campfire; whereas there is, for example, with making hot water. The bombardier beetles squirt boiling water at their enemies. You can easily see that just squirting cold water at your enemies is not totally unhelpful. Then making it a bit hotter and a bit hotter. Squirting boiling water no doubt required many adaptations to make sure the beetle didn’t boil itself while it was making this boiling water. That happened because there was a sequence of steps in between, all of which were useful. But with campfires, it’s very hard to see how that could happen. Humans have explanatory creativity. Once you have that, you can get to the moon. You can cause asteroids which are heading towards the earth to turn around and go away. Perhaps no other planet in the universe has that power, and it has it only because of the presence of explanatory creativity on it.

Deutsch Explains

186,102 просмотров • 1 год назад

Experts warn that a major landslide disaster looms in the hills of Upper St Andrew. Check out this PrimeTime News story and more only on TVJ.
3:34

Experts warn that a major landslide disaster looms in the hills of Upper St Andrew. Check out this PrimeTime News story and more only on TVJ.

Television Jamaica/Radio Jamaica Newscentre

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DARK SIDE OF DHIFFUSHI ISLAND IN MALDIVES You are not supposed to walk around in the local town because it is a place for local villagers to live, Maldives is a Muslim country and conservative Beaches are full of garbage and plastics that pose severe health risk to humans. ~Vlogger Gabriel #ExploreIndianIslands #Lakshadweep #BoycottMaldives
6:23

DARK SIDE OF DHIFFUSHI ISLAND IN MALDIVES You are not supposed to walk around in the local town because it is a place for local villagers to live, Maldives is a Muslim country and conservative Beaches are full of garbage and plastics that pose severe health risk to humans. ~Vlogger Gabriel #ExploreIndianIslands #Lakshadweep #BoycottMaldives

Berlin 🚩

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