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Victor Davis Hanson: Iran May Be Preparing One Final Gamble Iran is facing mounting economic pressure after roughly 160 days of war, even as repeated negotiations with the Trump administration have failed to produce a lasting agreement. Sanctions, financial restrictions, and the blockade are costing Iran hundreds of millions...

28,807 просмотров • 4 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚠️ Trump hoped reopening the Strait of Hormuz would give him an opportunity to declare victory and wind down the war with Iran, even without securing a nuclear agreement. Tehran, however, has dramatically raised the price of a deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran is demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and billions of dollars in war reparations before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Those demands have significantly narrowed the Trump administration’s room for maneuver. Tehran reportedly believes Washington is increasingly eager to find an exit from the conflict and is therefore using its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and consequently a crucial portion of global oil flows, as leverage at the negotiating table. The pressure is also growing inside the United States. Gasoline prices are hovering around $4 per gallon, while the approaching midterm elections give the Trump administration a strong political incentive to stabilize energy markets and reach an agreement with Iran. The situation leaves Washington facing an increasingly difficult calculation. Accepting Tehran’s sweeping demands would represent a major concession, while renewed military escalation risks further disruption of Hormuz and another surge in global energy prices. Iran appears to understand that pressure on the Strait directly translates into economic and political pressure on Washington, and Tehran is attempting to exploit that leverage to extract concessions it could never obtain under normal circumstances.

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19,454 просмотров • 6 дней назад

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 The negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz appear to have reached a critical point. While multi-day talks continue in Oman, Iran struck another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz minutes ago and simultaneously announced that the waterway will remain closed until Washington "corrects its behavior." Iran's Supreme National Security Council has outlined six conditions for reopening the strait: ▪️ An end to U.S. threats and hostile rhetoric against Iran; ▪️ A permanent end to the war and attacks against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq; ▪️ The lifting of the naval blockade and withdrawal of U.S. naval and air forces from areas surrounding Iran; ▪️ Compensation for damage caused by what Tehran calls the "two wars of aggression"; ▪️ The lifting of U.S. sanctions; ▪️ The unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets. "The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations," the council declared. The latest developments represent a major setback for President Donald Trump's attempt to secure an agreement through the Oman-Iran negotiations and present the reopening of Hormuz as a diplomatic victory. Tehran is now publicly tying the reopening of the strait to demands Washington is extremely unlikely to accept in full. This leaves the United States facing two broad strategic choices: tolerate the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz while pursuing diplomacy, or resume military operations in an attempt to force Tehran toward terms acceptable to Washington. Neither option is remotely simple. A renewed U.S. campaign against Iranian energy and military infrastructure could trigger retaliation against energy facilities across the Gulf, potentially causing a severe global energy shock. An even more escalatory option would involve attempts to secure strategically important Iranian islands and coastal positions controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Such an operation would require sustained air and naval superiority, ground forces, logistics, and the ability to hold exposed positions against Iranian counterattacks. It would therefore carry enormous military and political risks and could transform the current confrontation into a much broader regional war. Washington still retains overwhelming conventional military advantages, but reopening Hormuz by force is fundamentally different from conducting punitive airstrikes. Tehran's latest demands indicate that the struggle over the strait is increasingly becoming a test of whether U.S. military and economic pressure can compel Iran to compromise without triggering an even larger conflict. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

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24,623 просмотров • 7 дней назад