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Walking to the Cybercab event…

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JoshWest247 ⚡️

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18,923 次观看 • 18 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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So much room to walk. So much room for activities! Event is over. How was your day? 💞 #walking
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In light of the Cybercab event this week, here are my expectations: Of course the first official Robotaxi rides in a Cybercab will happen. Good chance it's limited to a certain portion of the geofence, especially for the launch event to avoid any edge cases I think Elon will say a few words. Likely nothing we don't already know - thanking the teams and explaining the importance of and vision for Cybercab Frankly though what happens at the event doesn't matter. It's what the Cybercab service looks like the following day. I think best case scenario would be Tesla having ~25 active Cybercabs operating in Austin for a majority of the operating hours (6A - 10P). I think we all need to be prepared for somehwere around ~5-10 Cybercabs to be active for a week or so after the event and then a slow build from there While we don't know how many active Robotaxis Tesla has in Austin, we can guess it's ~50-75 on any given day. I think increasing that fleet by up to 50% is the most we should be hoping for. I think the survey going around where ~50% of people are expecting > 100 Cybercabs to be deployed is overly optimistic. Not that it can't happen, and I'd love to be wrong, it would just be a stark departure from everything we've seen/heard so far This event shouldn't be viewed as a scaling announcement, but rather a beginning of operations and celebration of the Cybercab. I know Elon said over the weekend Tesla is "about to" flood Austin with Cybercabs, but in his mind that could mean later this year with V15, not this week Given Ashok's recent commentary about why they're going broad instead of deep (more different cities instead of higher fleet volume in each), I'd be more impressed with Cybercab starting operations in the other active Robotaxi cities in the following week or two after the event. To me, that would be a great signal that the validation is going well with Cybercab more generally, not just in the Austin geofence where Tesla has extensive data So while this is a huge milestone (no wheel, no pedals, purpose built for autonomy, cost profile, attention-grabbing design etc.), I'm still not expecting to see hundreds of Robotaxis in Austin or other cities until later this year or early '27 $TSLA
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