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Warren Buffett: "I think [Google] is more likely to be a winner based on their record than probably 95% of what gets merchandised through Wall Street." "The real question with Google and all of its competitors now is they're all laying out hundreds of billions [on capital expenditures]. That's...

71,169 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Bob
Bobvor 1 Monat

My prediction: Elon Musk (SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla) will ultimately win the AI competition. They have all the necessary pieces in place and the best people working on these projects. Buffett’s bias against Elon Musk will end up costing Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. At age 95, he is deciding to venture outside his circle of competence.

Profilbild von Peter Lake (“world’s anonymous singer songwriter”)
Peter Lake (“world’s anonymous singer songwriter”)vor 1 Monat

Google is perhaps not pushing the outer limits…kind of like Apple repurchasing their shares? Less business risk, but less fun for the luminaries who want to be at the cutting edge. Looking back though it will be hard not to argue that Google was the focal point of all the major talent in the industry. Sort of bell labs-eque

Profilbild von Kuldeep Verma
Kuldeep Vermavor 1 Monat

Google has a strong track record, but AI requires enormous spending.

Profilbild von Aryan Singh
Aryan Singhvor 1 Monat

Buffett is basically pointing out that the AI race is becoming a capital war, not just a software race. That capex is going to separate the companies that can actually monetize AI from the ones just burning money.

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NexusMaximusvor 1 Monat

Says the Oracle who could have bought $GOOG at $150 but instead bought at $350

Profilbild von paintingcandles
paintingcandlesvor 1 Monat

what would make buffett change his mind on this, is there a capex number that gets too scary?

Profilbild von ೃ⁀➷ sofi ࣪˖
ೃ⁀➷ sofi ࣪˖vor 1 Monat

Past record doesn't protect against overinvestment. At what scale does capital intensity kill the moat?

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NextMedia.Londonvor 1 Monat

The scale of this investment makes the AI race look very different from simply a software story.

Profilbild von The Value Investor
The Value Investorvor 1 Monat

Scale is becoming a competitive advantage. The capital required for AI infrastructure may ultimately exclude competitors that can't fund the race.

Profilbild von NAYUYU(T ^ T)ノ(喪中RIJI)なゆゆ(T-T)ノ🌈🐕‍🦺。
NAYUYU(T ^ T)ノ(喪中RIJI)なゆゆ(T-T)ノ🌈🐕‍🦺。vor 1 Monat

なるほど(*´꒳`*)ノ💴💹🏙⭐️✨。

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Warren Buffett just warned that some of the biggest names in AI might collapse soon. And he said it while revealing he had personally put $31 billion into one of them... Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are now laying out hundreds of billions in capex to stay in the AI race. Buffett called that real money, the kind that was never required back when software was cheap to run. He said these companies have no choice but to keep spending at this scale, because none of them can afford to be the one that blinks. In his own words, they are "playing a game they don't want to play." But the one AI company Buffett actually bought is Google. Berkshire now holds a stake worth more than $31 billion, and for weeks Wall Street assumed the credit belonged to Greg Abel, who took over as CEO in January and ran the position up on his watch. But Buffett admitted he "initiated" the investment. He usually never reveals who makes a call. The Google position already sits behind only Apple and American Express in Berkshire's stock portfolio, and last month Berkshire bought $10 billion of it directly from the company in a private placement. Then he undercut his own trade. When asked why he chose Alphabet over the rest of the Mag 7, Buffett said he does not even like it as much as four or five other businesses Berkshire already owns. He bought it the way he buys anything, as a good company available at a fair price. For years he waved off the Apple question by calling it a consumer company. This time he let the AI label on Google stand, and bought it anyway. Buffett also said the vast majority of what Wall Street pushes, on the order of 90 to 95%, is merchandising, because Wall Street only cares whether it can sell you something. He said he cannot remember the last research report that dug into the actual returns a business earns. Everyone fixates on next quarter instead. He also brought up IBM, which owned its market for decades until a rival offered its customers a better deal and its best business cracked. He brought up A&P, the biggest retailer in America in the 1930s, a company he said held a commanding position that later vanished completely. Buffett was describing the AI leaders as much as anyone: The most dominant company on Earth today is not promised to be dominant in ten years. So the most famous technology skeptic in investing put $31 billion into the AI trade and at the same time warned that the companies leading it are stuck in a war with no exit. What does Buffett see coming that the rest of the market doesn't?

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