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"Warsh cuts rates, Warsh shrinks the balance sheet, then changes the regulations for banks so banks can buy more treasuries without reducing lending to Main Street. That's the Jedi mind trick. These are not the droids you're looking for." - Luke Gromen

74,673 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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KEVIN WARSH IS ANOTHER REASON BEHIND THIS MARKET CRASH. Yesterday’s sell off began when the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair surged sharply. , This reaction was due to Kevin Warsh’s policy record. Kevin Warsh is not a new name. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011 and played a role during the 2008 crisis. Since leaving the Fed, he has been one of the most vocal critics of how monetary policy was handled after that period. He has repeatedly argued that QE inflated asset prices, increased inequality, and mainly benefited financial markets rather than the real economy. He has described QE as a REVERSE ROBIN HOOD policy. He has also said the post 2020 inflation surge was a policy mistake, not an unavoidable outcome. That tells markets he is less tolerant of prolonged ultra easy policy. While Warsh now supports cutting interest rates, his framework is different from what markets are used to. He has opposed for rate cuts combined with balance sheet reduction, not open ended liquidity. This is a big issue. Markets are pricing the risk that rates may come down, but liquidity may not expand the way it has in previous cycles. That combination is not friendly for highly leveraged trades, stretched equity valuations, or liquidity driven rallies. In simple terms: • Trump wants lower rates • Warsh wants tighter balance sheet discipline • Markets fear rate cuts without QE The era of QE is no longer guaranteed. And markets are finally starting to price that reality.

Bull Theory

424,118 views • 6 months ago

Friday's 26% crash in silver and 9% drop in gold has everyone asking if the debasement trade is dead. It's not even close. The selling continued today. Gold fell to $4,544. Silver dropped to $76. Total damage from Thursday's highs: Gold down about $1,060 (≈19%) from $5,608. Silver down about 37% from $121. The algorithms sold on a name: Kevin Warsh. Wall Street's narrative was simple. Warsh is a "lifetime hawk." Hawks raise rates. Hawks defend the dollar. Hawks kill gold. But did anyone actually listen to what Warsh has been saying? In his Fox News interview with Larry Kudlow - the one that likely got him the job - Warsh said this: "Why can't we take the target rate from 4 to 2? So we can lower interest rates a lot, and in so doing, get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages so they're affordable." Read that again. The "hawk" wants to slash rates by 200 basis points into a "booming" economy. That's not hawkish. That's pouring gasoline on a bonfire. He also said the Fed needs to "take their balance sheet down and redeploy that money to Main Street." Mechanically, that's incoherent. äYou can't shrink the balance sheet AND redirect that money. The money gets destroyed in quantitative tightening. The bond market noticed the contradiction. The 2-year Treasury yield FELL after the Warsh announcement. If traders believed he'd be hawkish, yields would have RISEN. Instead, futures priced in MORE rate cuts. The bond market thinks Warsh will cut aggressively. And why wouldn't he? He just watched the DOJ serve Powell with grand jury subpoenas. Criminal investigation. All because Powell wouldn't cut rates fast enough. Warsh's worst nightmare is Trump turning on him the same way. More rate cuts + sticky inflation = the debasement trade accelerating, not ending Now let's put the carnage in perspective: Silver's crash - the worst since 1980 - took prices back to mid-January. Gold's plunge? Back to January 22nd. Ten days of gains. The rally was so extreme that this bone-jarring drop barely scratched the surface. The structural accelerants are everywhere. China suspended trading on five commodity funds. The premium on one silver fund had hit 60% over NAV. The CME hiked gold margins to 8% and silver to 15% - effective today. When the exchange demands more collateral, forced selling begins. This was leverage unwinding. Hot money getting flushed. Tourists carried out on stretchers. The structural case hasn't changed. The US borrowed $602 billion in just the first three months of fiscal 2026. $7 billion per day. Interest on the debt hit $1.2 trillion annually. Central banks see what's coming. Global official gold reserves now exceed foreign holdings of Treasuries for the first time since the 1990s. The debasement trade isn't about who chairs the Fed. IT'S ABOUT MATH And if Warsh actually executes the plan he outlined on Fox News - slashing rates to 2% - gold at $4,500 is going to look like the bargain of the century. But don't rush to buy the dip. The metals got way overbought. Recent momentum buyers who piled in with leverage may still be forced to puke. No telling how far down this goes. Let the market tell you where the bottom is. Then buy. And when you do - favor the equities over the metals. The miners have lagged badly and offer better risk/reward from here.

George Noble

409,042 views • 5 months ago