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WATCH: Nvidia is considering adding new manufacturing lines for H200 AI chips following strong demand from Chinese clients and recent US export approval with a 25 percent fee

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Trump just pulled off one of the smartest dealmaking moves in tech history. And Nvidia + China are both getting played. Let me explain... December 2025: Trump announces Nvidia can sell H200 chips to China. BUT the US government takes 25% of every sale. Not a 25% tariff. 25% OF THE REVENUE goes to US Treasury. Jensen Huang celebrates. Stock rallies. January 14, 2026: Commerce Department publishes the REAL terms. Chips manufactured in Taiwan have to TRANSIT through the US for "third-party verification." When they enter US soil? 25% tariff gets applied. So Nvidia pays 25% tariff to import their own chips. THEN Trump takes 25% of the sale price when they ship to China. Nvidia's getting hit TWICE. The math is crazy: H200 costs $30k to make. Nvidia sells for $50k. 25% tariff entering US = $10k to government 25% of sale to China = $12.5k to government Total to US: $22.5k per chip Nvidia's margin: Drops from 70%+ to maybe 15% Chinese companies ordered 2 MILLION H200 chips for 2026. But Nvidia only has 700,000 in inventory. $22,500 × 700,000 chips = $15.75 BILLION to US Treasury. From ONE deal. With ONE company. Now here's where it gets insane... China isn't actually approving these imports. Chinese state media called H200 chips "unsafe." Cyberspace Administration is blocking purchases except for "exceptional circumstances." So Trump negotiated a deal where: - Nvidia thinks they're getting China market access - China's government is quietly blocking the imports anyway - US Treasury collects billions on the few that do get through - Trump gets to claim he's "tough on China" AND "supporting American business" This move kinda makes sense if you think about it. Supreme Court is about to rule Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal. That's the $130 billion refund bomb. Trump needs NEW revenue sources to replace tariff income when that ruling drops. So he invents a completely new structure: Not a tariff (court can't overturn). A "licensing fee" (executive authority). On chips that are "national security sensitive" (unchallengeable). This is the blueprint for Tariffs 2.0. When Supreme Court kills IEEPA authority Trump just pivots to "licensing fees" on every strategic export. Can't challenge it as a tariff because it's not a tariff. It's a "condition of export approval." The semiconductor industry just became Trump's test case. And Nvidia walked right into it because Jensen spent 6 months lobbying for "market access." Meanwhile China's playing the long game: They're not approving H200 imports. They're forcing their companies to use domestic chips (inferior but improving). Accelerating DeepSeek-style efficiency research. Building AI models that work on weaker hardware. In 2-3 years, when Chinese chips catch up, they won't need Nvidia at all. And Trump's "$15.75 billion windfall" becomes $0. But by then he'll have established the legal framework to extract licensing fees from every other strategic export. Everyone thinks Trump's negotiating strategy is "chaos." But look at what he actually accomplished: Created legal precedent for non-tariff trade fees that survive Supreme Court challenges. That's not chaos. That's calculated. What happens next: Supreme Court rules (next 2 weeks). Trump loses on IEEPA tariffs. $130B refund chaos begins. Trump immediately announces "licensing fee" structure for 10 other export categories. Uses Nvidia deal as proof it "works." Markets freak out as every exporter realizes their margins are about to get crushed. China continues blocking H200 imports while building domestic alternatives. Nvidia's stock craters when 2026 guidance shows China revenue never materialized. And Trump goes into 2027 with a completely new trade policy framework that's legally unchallengeable. Everybody's focused on the tariffs. Nobody's watching the licensing fees. This is actually genius.
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Trump just pulled off one of the smartest dealmaking moves in tech history. And Nvidia + China are both getting played. Let me explain... December 2025: Trump announces Nvidia can sell H200 chips to China. BUT the US government takes 25% of every sale. Not a 25% tariff. 25% OF THE REVENUE goes to US Treasury. Jensen Huang celebrates. Stock rallies. January 14, 2026: Commerce Department publishes the REAL terms. Chips manufactured in Taiwan have to TRANSIT through the US for "third-party verification." When they enter US soil? 25% tariff gets applied. So Nvidia pays 25% tariff to import their own chips. THEN Trump takes 25% of the sale price when they ship to China. Nvidia's getting hit TWICE. The math is crazy: H200 costs $30k to make. Nvidia sells for $50k. 25% tariff entering US = $10k to government 25% of sale to China = $12.5k to government Total to US: $22.5k per chip Nvidia's margin: Drops from 70%+ to maybe 15% Chinese companies ordered 2 MILLION H200 chips for 2026. But Nvidia only has 700,000 in inventory. $22,500 × 700,000 chips = $15.75 BILLION to US Treasury. From ONE deal. With ONE company. Now here's where it gets insane... China isn't actually approving these imports. Chinese state media called H200 chips "unsafe." Cyberspace Administration is blocking purchases except for "exceptional circumstances." So Trump negotiated a deal where: - Nvidia thinks they're getting China market access - China's government is quietly blocking the imports anyway - US Treasury collects billions on the few that do get through - Trump gets to claim he's "tough on China" AND "supporting American business" This move kinda makes sense if you think about it. Supreme Court is about to rule Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal. That's the $130 billion refund bomb. Trump needs NEW revenue sources to replace tariff income when that ruling drops. So he invents a completely new structure: Not a tariff (court can't overturn). A "licensing fee" (executive authority). On chips that are "national security sensitive" (unchallengeable). This is the blueprint for Tariffs 2.0. When Supreme Court kills IEEPA authority Trump just pivots to "licensing fees" on every strategic export. Can't challenge it as a tariff because it's not a tariff. It's a "condition of export approval." The semiconductor industry just became Trump's test case. And Nvidia walked right into it because Jensen spent 6 months lobbying for "market access." Meanwhile China's playing the long game: They're not approving H200 imports. They're forcing their companies to use domestic chips (inferior but improving). Accelerating DeepSeek-style efficiency research. Building AI models that work on weaker hardware. In 2-3 years, when Chinese chips catch up, they won't need Nvidia at all. And Trump's "$15.75 billion windfall" becomes $0. But by then he'll have established the legal framework to extract licensing fees from every other strategic export. Everyone thinks Trump's negotiating strategy is "chaos." But look at what he actually accomplished: Created legal precedent for non-tariff trade fees that survive Supreme Court challenges. That's not chaos. That's calculated. What happens next: Supreme Court rules (next 2 weeks). Trump loses on IEEPA tariffs. $130B refund chaos begins. Trump immediately announces "licensing fee" structure for 10 other export categories. Uses Nvidia deal as proof it "works." Markets freak out as every exporter realizes their margins are about to get crushed. China continues blocking H200 imports while building domestic alternatives. Nvidia's stock craters when 2026 guidance shows China revenue never materialized. And Trump goes into 2027 with a completely new trade policy framework that's legally unchallengeable. Everybody's focused on the tariffs. Nobody's watching the licensing fees. This is actually genius.

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Jensen Huang: “We (Nvidia) are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%. I can’t imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea.” Chinese AI labs like DeepSeek now have to use Chinese chips for both inference and training. Chinese chips will inevitably rise if this Nvidia chip ban continues.

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China has been smuggling H200 chips through Singapore this entire time. Both the government and NVIDIA are fully aware of this. This "deal" will have zero impact on demand.
3:32

China has been smuggling H200 chips through Singapore this entire time. Both the government and NVIDIA are fully aware of this. This "deal" will have zero impact on demand.

Financelot

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🇺🇸 Trump: China wants American AI chips According to Trump, the topic of supplying Nvidia H200 chips to China came up during the discussions. “They have chips at a much higher level, but the H200 is a great chip. China needs it,” Trump said. He also noted that Beijing has not bought the H200 so far because it wanted to develop its own alternatives.
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🇺🇸 Trump: China wants American AI chips According to Trump, the topic of supplying Nvidia H200 chips to China came up during the discussions. “They have chips at a much higher level, but the H200 is a great chip. China needs it,” Trump said. He also noted that Beijing has not bought the H200 so far because it wanted to develop its own alternatives.

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Chinese firms are developing AI without the need for US chips, and US export controls may not have done much to slow down that progress, Joachim Klement of Panmure Liberum told Reuters
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Q: “What was your reaction to the administration's decision to allow the sale of the NVIDIA chips, the H200 chips?” Senator Dave McCormick: “I'm concerned. I'm not clear on why that is the right path for us.”
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Q: “What was your reaction to the administration's decision to allow the sale of the NVIDIA chips, the H200 chips?” Senator Dave McCormick: “I'm concerned. I'm not clear on why that is the right path for us.”

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Will Nvidia actually sell its H200 chips to China? "I am surprised that we somehow went from the H20 being a bad idea, to the H200 being a good idea." "Until they start shipping and revenue gets cited by NVIDIA, I'm not yet a believer that this is a done deal." — Patrick Moorhead Full episode:
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Will Nvidia actually sell its H200 chips to China? "I am surprised that we somehow went from the H20 being a bad idea, to the H200 being a good idea." "Until they start shipping and revenue gets cited by NVIDIA, I'm not yet a believer that this is a done deal." — Patrick Moorhead Full episode:

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The United States will allow Nvidia's H200 processors, its second-best artificial intelligence chips, to be exported to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales, President Trump said
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DeepSeek launched a preview of its new AI model adapted for Huawei chip technology, marking a shift from Nvidia chips and highlighting China's advances in artificial intelligence
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DeepSeek launched a preview of its new AI model adapted for Huawei chip technology, marking a shift from Nvidia chips and highlighting China's advances in artificial intelligence
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“The administration has issued licenses for 750,000 H200 chips, but those licenses are still stalled on the Chinese side. . . . It would triple China’s AI computing power capacity, if those were to go through,” says CFR expert Chris McGuire, discussing the stalled sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese companies during a media briefing on the Trump-Xi summit.
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“The administration has issued licenses for 750,000 H200 chips, but those licenses are still stalled on the Chinese side. . . . It would triple China’s AI computing power capacity, if those were to go through,” says CFR expert Chris McGuire, discussing the stalled sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese companies during a media briefing on the Trump-Xi summit.

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The GPU market is more complex than it seems. 🧐 Keith Townsend (Keith Townsend) from The Futurum Group, provides a nuanced perspective on H100/H200 demand from Google Cloud Next, highlighting the ongoing importance of these chips in the AI infrastructure landscape. #AI #GPUs
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