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watched through the entire interview these guys aren't in the same league. jensen plays to win. dwarkesh has been one shotted by mythos marketing. in a way its jensen arguing against dario by proxy. think there's a fundamental underestimation that most ppl in the west have about huawei. they...

543,134 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Distilled recap of the back-and-forth with Jensen on export controls: Dwarkesh: Wouldn’t selling Nvidia chips to China enable them to train models like Claude Mythos with cyber offensive capabilities that would be threats to American companies and national security? Jensen: First of all, Mythos was trained on fairly mundane capacity and a fairly mundane amount of it by an extraordinary company. The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China. Dwarkesh: With that, could they eventually train a model like Mythos? Yes. But the question is, because we have more FLOPs, American labs are able to get to this level of capabilities first. Furthermore, even if they trained a model like this, the ability to deploy it at scale matters. If you had a cyber hacker, it's much more dangerous if they have a million of them versus a thousand of them. Jensen: Your premise is just wrong. The fact of the matter is their AI development is going just fine. The best AI researchers in the world, because they are limited in compute, also come up with extremely smart algorithms. DeepSeek is not an inconsequential advance. The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation. Dwarkesh: Currently, you can have a model like DeepSeek that can run on any accelerator if it's open source. Why would that stop being the case in the future? Jensen: Suppose it optimizes for Huawei. Suppose it optimizes for their architecture. It would put others at a disadvantage. As AI diffuses out into the rest of the world, their standards and their tech stack will become superior to ours because their models are open. Dwarkesh: Tesla sold extremely good electric vehicles to China for a long time. iPhones are sold in China. They didn't cause some lock-in. China will still make their version of EVs, and they're dominating, or smartphones, they're dominating. Jensen: We are not a car. The fact that I can buy this car brand one day and use another car brand another day is easy. Computing is not like that. There's a reason why x86 still exists. There's a reason why Arm is so sticky. These ecosystems are hard to replace. Dwarkesh: It's just hard to imagine that there's a long-term lock-in to the Chinese ecosystem, even if they have this slightly better open-source model for a while. American labs port across accelerators constantly. Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, they're run on Trainium, they're run on TPUs. There are so many things you can do, from distilling to a model that's well fit for your chips. Jensen: China is the largest contributor to open source software in the world. China's the largest contributor to open models in the world. Today it's built on the American tech stack, Nvidia’s. Fact. All five layers of the tech stack for AI are important. The United States ought to go win all five of them. in a few years time, I'm making you the prediction that when we want American technology to be diffused around the world—out to India, out to the Middle East, out to Africa, out to Southeast Asia—on that day, I will tell you exactly about today's conversation, about how your policy ... caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.

Dwarkesh Patel

1,252,105 次观看 • 3 个月前

China is on the verge of cracking the US's advanced microchip monopoly. Behind the scenes, Americans are PANICKING. And that's why they issued an insane "order" last week, saying that NO ONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD (including China) is allowed to use the Huawei Ascend microchip. The US has a long record of arguing that they have a legal right to control use or sales of anything anywhere in the world that may have an American element in its development history. . HERE'S THE STORY The US is keeping a tight hold on advanced microchips from Taiwan, China—including the super-powerful Nvidia chips necessary for AI. So the Chinese company Huawei developed a way of linking less advanced chips together to replicate (and even beat) the computing power of the Nvidia chip, 300 petaflops to 180 petaflops. Chinese nerds did this by using optical connections to make instantaneous transmission between 384 chips. The result was the CloudMatrix 384, which delivers MORE computing power than the top Nvidia chip. But the US says that the Huawei chips inside it include elements, or chiplets, from TSMC in the Chinese province of Taiwan, and will make sure these are not available any more. Now mainland China needs to develop its own chiplets, which won't be easy. . WHO WILL WIN? Top experts like William Huo (whose background is Intel Inc) say we should be rooting for China. That's because the US says it in this fight to maintain global AI dominance, while China will share the breakthrough with the world to create a fairer, safer planet. Who will win this battle? This story is unfolding in real time.

Nury Vittachi

28,460 次观看 • 1 年前

Jensen Huang pushes back on common misconceptions about China's tech capabilities, arguing the West is dangerously underestimating its competitor. He challenges three narratives he's heard: "They could never build AI chips. China can't manufacture. If there's one thing they could do is manufacture. And they're years behind us? Come on. They're nanoseconds behind us." Jensen explains why China is such a formidable competitor, starting with talent and work ethic: "Don't forget that China has some of the best entrepreneurs in the world because they came from some of the best STEM schools in the world. They're the most hungry in the world." He references the infamous "996" culture (9am to 9pm, 6 days a week) and notes that China is producing the most AI engineers in the world. Beyond talent, Jensen highlights a structural advantage most people overlook: "They are very lightly regulated, right? Less regulated, ironically, than we are in a capitalist system." He pushes back on the assumption that central governance means top-down control: "The genius of China was distributed economic systems. All of these 33 provinces and all the mayors… has driven enormous amount of internal competition, internal economic vibrancy." The result, Jensen argues, is a country that is "creative, hungry, fast-moving, underregulated." Looking ahead, Jensen says he takes China's stated goal of being an open market at face value: "What's in the best interest of China is for foreign companies to invest in China, compete in China… and they would also like to come out of China and participate around the world." For Jensen, the American tech industry is a national treasure, and the answer is simple: "Why would we not allow this industry to go compete for its survival?"

Big Brain AI

41,991 次观看 • 5 个月前

Nvidia chips have become the most smuggled technology on the planet. And the criminal networks moving them look EXACTLY like drug cartels. The entire operation just got exposed, and the details are absolutely insane: A co-founder of Supermicro, one of Nvidia's biggest hardware partners, was secretly running a $2.5 BILLION smuggling pipeline to China. Servers were assembled in the US, shipped to Taiwan, repackaged into unmarked boxes at a shell company in Southeast Asia, then forwarded to Chinese buyers who wanted the chips inside. $510 million worth of servers moved to China in just THREE WEEKS. When a broker sent him a news article about other chip smugglers getting arrested by the feds, the co-founder replied with sobbing emojis on his encrypted chat. Then kept going. This is the same Supermicro that helped Elon Musk build his Colossus AI cluster in 122 days. The same company flagging $13 billion in Nvidia Blackwell orders on their earnings call. And their co-founder was running the biggest illegal chip operation in history out the back door. It gets even crazier here though... In New York, a marketing executive was pitching GPU smuggling on WeChat calling it "lucrative." In Tampa, a guy set up a fake realty company to ship A100s to China and moved 400 GPUs before getting caught. In one of the wildest stings ever, federal agents seized smuggled chips and the smugglers thought they'd been STOLEN. They sent an inspection team to a government warehouse, verified the Nvidia labels, then wired a $1 million ransom to a government-controlled bank account. The feds watched it all on surveillance cameras. Next day the smugglers rolled up with three semi trucks. Federal agents were waiting. In the past 12 months, the Commerce Department has collected nearly $420 million in penalties for semiconductor smuggling to China. Applied Materials paid $252 million and Cadence paid $95 million after admitting employees sent chip design tech to a Chinese university running nuclear simulations. Now here's where the story gets complicated: The US government spent YEARS building export controls to keep these chips out of China. Billions of dollars in enforcement, sanctions, entity lists, licensing requirements. But none of it worked. Nvidia's market share of AI chips in China has dropped to ZERO because China found other ways to get what it needs through Huawei. Jensen Huang told American lawmakers the export controls "largely backfired." Conceding an entire market the size of China makes no strategic sense when Chinese AI talent is world class and their energy is cheaper. Meanwhile Trump approved H200 sales to China with a 25% fee to the US government. Ten Chinese companies got clearance. But not a SINGLE chip has been delivered because China's own government is now BLOCKING the purchases. Beijing told Chinese firms not to buy American chips. They want domestic investment flowing to Huawei instead. So now you have a situation where the US spent years trying to stop China from getting Nvidia chips, criminal networks built a billion dollar black market to smuggle them anyway, Trump finally approved sales, and China said "we don't want them anymore." The chips America tried to keep out of China are now being REFUSED by China. Nvidia is caught in the middle of all of it. Jensen Huang flew to Beijing this week after originally being left off Trump's delegation. Trump saw the news coverage about his absence and called him the morning of the trip. The most valuable chips in the world are being smuggled through shell companies, fake real estate firms, encrypted chats, unmarked boxes, and billion dollar laundering operations. America spent billions trying to keep these chips away from China, and criminals spent billions trying to sneak them in. But China just moved on and built their own through Huawei. The entire war was basically for nothing.

Ricardo

17,419 次观看 • 2 个月前