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We asked Nathan Leamer how he thinks about AI job displacement. His take: before talking about jobs AI may replace, talk about the jobs AI is already creating. “Before I get to the displacement, I wanna highlight that there are thousands, hundreds of thousands of workers out there.” “Tradesmen,...

10,652 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Shuler: If you think about every industrial revolution we’ve been through, working people have helped us make that transition. It’s really because we’ve helped tame the technology and figured out how to use it in the most effective way. So I think your question about augmentation versus replacement is the big question we have. If we can all agree that this is about making our jobs better, safer, easier, and more productive, then we’re all in. But if you’re looking to de-skill, dehumanize, and replace workers, to put people out on the street with no path forward, then absolutely you’re going to have a revolution. So I think that’s something we all need to be very real about and think seriously about. If we’re going to have productivity gains, working people—the ones who make these industries happen—need to share in that. There hasn’t been a lot of discussion about that here. Of course, in terms of how we create policies, how we create tax infrastructure, whether or not we are redistributing—yes, that word is a dirty word around here—we need to talk about it and confront how we’re going to make sure working people share in the gains of these technologies. And if you look at the numbers of jobs, let’s talk about job quality. Yes, maybe there are a lot of jobs created, but what kind of jobs are we talking about? Are they jobs that can sustain a family? Is it a job where people can actually work one job? One job should be enough.

Acyn

41,942 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Sam Altman on the most tone-deaf prediction being made by AI CEOs today: He pushes back on the gloomy predictions in the AI industry about mass unemployment. "I know some AI CEOs are saying things like 50% of the jobs are going to go away." Sam Altman finds this framing not just wrong, but tone-deaf: "To say nothing of how tone-deaf it is for someone to be saying my company's going to eliminate 50% of the jobs and my company is going to be the most valuable company in human history and you know how wonderful that's going to be and but 50% of you are going to lose your jobs." Instead, Altman points to a pattern that's played out before: "Jobs will go away. Jobs have gone away with every technological revolution. Jobs will change." To illustrate why productivity gains don't automatically translate to less work, he shares a conversation that stuck with him: "A thing someone said to me just yesterday that really stuck with me is I can use the new model GPT 5.5 in codex to accomplish in an hour what would have taken me weeks 2 years ago. And I thought I would have been much less busy in that world. Now you're doing work and I have never been busier in my life. I'm waking up in the middle of the night to do more work." Altman acknowledges the disruption ahead, but rejects the bleak version of the story: "I have no doubt that the economy is going to change a lot and jobs are going to change a lot and I think caution is warranted and I think rigorous debate about new social contracts, new economic systems are warranted as well. But I don't think it's like we're all going to sit around in a life without meaning and without work."

Big Brain AI

12,195 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад