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We built Anthropic's internal revenue model based on the latest reports. $4.5B → $148B in 5 years $100B in training costs Profitable two years before OpenAI

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Ramp Labs

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147,905 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Exclusive: OpenAI boosts revenue forecast and cash burn. Sri Muppidi reports OpenAI is projecting 27% more in revenue through 2030 than previously forecast on higher sales of ChatGPT subscriptions. But the company also warns it will burn more cash in the same time period, as it spends $665 billion on the costs of running and training its AI. Read more:

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"AI will spike unemployment to 20% in the next 1-5 years" - Anthropic's Dario Amodei

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The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private. Brad Gerstner Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now. Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path. High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable. The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public. If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification. Source: TBPN (TBPN) -
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The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private. Brad Gerstner Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now. Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path. High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable. The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public. If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification. Source: TBPN (TBPN) -

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When we buy a home in a 30-40 floor building - we expect it to get built in 3-4 years. If someone is really slow then 5-6 years. But 100 years back, a 100 floor building was built in 13 months: Empire State Building in New York. Almost the perfect operation.
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When we buy a home in a 30-40 floor building - we expect it to get built in 3-4 years. If someone is really slow then 5-6 years. But 100 years back, a 100 floor building was built in 13 months: Empire State Building in New York. Almost the perfect operation.

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We recently launched Cursor agents in Jira. Today we are introducing the Claude Agent; built on Anthropic's Claude Managed Agents infrastructure.
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Your energy bills are expensive. Nuclear can lower them. In 1956, Britain built a nuclear power plant in 3 years for £725m in today’s money. Our latest nuclear power plant announced in 2010, costs £46bn + won’t be complete until 2031. We have gone backwards, time to fix that.

JACK ANDERTON

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THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.
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THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.

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