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We should never manipulate markets that are very competitive and have been functioning so well for so long. The truth is about credit cards, every time there's a new entrant, it's so competitive. They offer 0% financing for six months. Now as a result of this jawboning, it'd be...

38,765 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 次观看 • 1 年前

Q: Esteban, new year, new rules, new car. You've had the first run out this morning at the Shakedown. What are the first impressions? How did the program go for you? Esteban Ocon: Yeah, feeling good. I think, frist of all, an unbelievable effort from the team really to put the car down, you know, at 9:20 this morning. But the was ready at 9:00 you know. We were waiting on a bit of a better track condition and a few things that we wanted to be perfect before we went out. But yeah, from Fiorano testing with Ollie to here there's been moving like people have climbed mountains really to make this car work and it's been really good. So, we are dealing with the plan, learning as it goes. Of course, it's a busy program that we have for the day. So you know, its gonna be difficult to complete it. But for the first real day of driving, I think so far it's going really well and we'll keep pushing to make sure that all the details are covered. But we have more days than normal which is a good thing. Q: Very early days, of course, but just how different are these cars to drive? Have you had a chance to play around a little bit with some of the new modes? Ocon: Yeah, it's very difficult, very complicated. I got lucky be able to do a lot of simulator days before we started the year, so we are pretty well set on that. Everything is clear, but yes, it's very complicated you know, for all of us. But I hope that this will be the same for everyone, because if it is we're in the same boat, so we'll see. Q: But I get the sense you're really relishing that challange and what about the priorities from here, the rest of the weel here at the shakedown? Ocon: Yeah, the aim is really to learn, to get mileage under the car, you know, see the weak points, what we have to improve really. First feel of things, so we are sure that we take the right development path and we are sure that we put the resources where it matters the most. Where it's the most bothering us, so you know, we'll try and put all that together for that end of the test. It's a long week, which is very good and then we have the chance to go back to Bahrain with hopefully, further step made, so that's the aim. #HaasF1 #F1Testing #F1

Lucho Yoma

12,593 次观看 • 6 个月前

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Founder Mode

39,005 次观看 • 6 个月前

Retired pharma R&D executive says "the whole idea of vaccination and public health was always [about] eugenics"🩸💉 "it was always the mechanism the government... [used] to keep the population under control" "it's... especially [about] access to each and every body with injections, with needles. That's what they're always after" sashalatypova.substack.com "Due Diligence and Art" Andrew Kaufman MD ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- Latypova: "As I've been saying for a long time, this whole idea of vaccination, public health, was always eugenics idea. It was always the mechanism that the government, early on, the monarchy or some other type of government figured out that this is a great method to keep the population under control. "And they were pretty explicit about this in many, many documents, more contemporary documents as population control policies, population control strategies." Kaufman: "Well we even have vaccines that are used as birth control, right? They've been studied in, in, in clinical trials that are published." Latypova: "Oh yeah, I'm just— I'm going to publish about that. I found one paper that's, of course, in French, it's not in English, so I auto translated it, and it's very explicit. We are developing contraceptive vaccines for the developing countries for the purposes of population control. It's very explicit—" Kaufman: "I have a study published in English, very similar. It was done in Africa. I can get you a copy of that if you like...." Latypova: "So, the governments together with these 'scientists,' you know, I can't call them scientists, they are profiteers, off of this idea, like Koch, like Pasteur, Mechnikov, there was a bunch of Russian ones. So they started the whole idea of hunting viruses became very lucrative because if you could isolate and find something or virus or bacteria or some bacilli, like the Koch, then you could become rich and famous because you could be awarded big commissions from the government, given lots of power, and labs and staff." "And, of course, you can then patent your inventions and sell them in terms of rabies shots or tuberculin or things like that. There were attempts at vaccines for diphtheria, vaccines for plague, cholera, none of them worked, they all failed." Kaufman: "And they were, they were experimenting with different technologies at that time as well, right? Because I believe the diphtheria immunization was made from horse serum. Right? Rather than, you know, something in a culture or, or from a, from an animal lesion. So, sort of closer to what might be called today monoclonal antibody technology." Latypova: "Yes... it's very similar the monoclonal that they use horses for, commonly. That was how it originated. "Also, they experimented with injecting all sorts of things. So, for example, foot and mouth disease also at the same time was being claimed to be viral. And they would invariably, they will claim either it's a virus or it's a bacterial toxin, depending on the situation. "But it's always because they can't find anything in the solution that they make. So if they can't find any cells, then they will claim it's a virus or it's a bacterial toxin just because it's invisible. It's very convenient." Kaufman: "So this would incentivize the scientist or the businessman because there's a big commercial opportunity there to become rich and famous. But from the government's perspective, who may be financing these operations, it's a tool of eugenics and health control, essentially." Latypova: "Yeah, it's... especially access to each and every body with injection, with a needle. That's what they're always after. And it continues today."

Sense Receptor

11,953 次观看 • 6 天前

Chamath's CDS Bet: Outlining Major Corporate Debt Default Risks "With all of the tariffs, the one thing that we haven't sufficiently talked about is there is a tremendous amount of corporate debt that supports these businesses today." "And you would say, 'Well, if long-term rates go down, there's no real risk.'" "But the tariff picture actually impacts revenues." "And the problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA." "And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is, the one risk that is uncontrollable, is what happens to corporate debt and could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?" On our 2025 predictions show in January, Chamath Palihapitiya picked credit default swaps as his best-performing asset this year, calling it a long-shot with major upside: " I would be long CDS. I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen. I hope that this trade loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best-performing asset of 2025." Fast-forward to April: " It has hit. For every billion dollars of risk you would've put on, would have cost you ~$1M, and that million dollars would've made you ~$7M in about three months." "Why is this important? The CDS actually represents the structural risk in the United States corporate economy." "So when you see these spreads blowing out, this is actually a very important warning sign." "This is what was the canary in the coal mine for the Great Financial Crisis." "The tariff picture and the recession picture will get played out in this chart." "And I think it's something that folks can and should probably pay tremendous attention to."

The All-In Podcast

1,102,601 次观看 • 1 年前

60 years ago, Ronald Reagan gave Americans a warning that has stood the test of time. This is from Reagan's "Time for Choosing" speech: "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth. And this idea that government is beholden to the people, that it has no other source of power except to sovereign people, is still the newest and most unique idea in all the long history of man's relation to man. This is the issue of this election. Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves." "You and I are told increasingly that we have to choose between a left or right, but I would like to suggest that there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism, and regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course." ... "Well, I for one resent it when a representative of the people refers to you and me--the free man and woman of this country--as 'the masses.' This is a term we haven't applied to ourselves in America. But beyond that, 'the full power of centralized government'--this was the very thing the Founding Fathers sought to minimize. They knew that governments don't control things. A government can't control the economy without controlling people. And they know when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose. They also knew, those Founding Fathers, that outside of its legitimate functions, government does nothing as well or as economically as the private sector of the economy." ... "They say we are always 'against' things, never 'for' anything. Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so." ... "Mr. Democrat himself, Al Smith, the great American, came before the American people and charged that the leadership of his party was taking the part of Jefferson, Jackson, and Cleveland down the road under the banners of Marx, Lenin, and Stalin." ... "Our natural, inalienable rights are now considered to be a dispensation of government, and freedom has never been so fragile, so close to slipping from our grasp as it is at this moment." ... "You and I know and do not believe that life is so dear and peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery. If nothing in life is worth dying for, when did this begin--just in the face of this enemy? Or should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in slavery under the pharaohs? Should Christ have refused the cross? Should the patriots at Concord Bridge have thrown down their guns and refused to fire the shot heard 'round the world? The martyrs of history were not fools, and our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of the Nazis didn't die in vain. Where, then, is the road to peace? Well, it's a simple answer after all." "You and I have the courage to say to our enemies, 'There is a price we will not pay.' There is a point beyond which they must not advance." ... "You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on Earth, or we will sentence them to take the last step into a thousand years of darkness." Doesn't it feel like Reagan is speaking to us TODAY?

Kyle Becker

104,422 次观看 • 2 年前

UFO Revolution: S2E3 - 2027 and the Approaching Craft. Is it a Lie? "You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That 100 f**king percent is the lie you are going to be told." ~Corbell (Well, I was not expecting this. And right now, I don't know what to think. But we all know it's been hinted at by various folks, including Lue Elizondo. So what's going on?) ~ Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell: "Your government now wants you to know one truth, and that truth is that UFOs are real. They've already done told you. Sometimes, when you want somebody to know a truth, it's so you can set them up to believe a lie, and that's coming. I have zero doubt that lie is coming." Producer: "What is the lie?" Corbell: "Specifically, you want me to say it right now, for real, real? On camera, to be put in the show?" Producer: "Yes." Corbell: "Okay. Problem with that: If we tell the lie before it's told, they can adapt. That wouldn't be wise. I'll tell you privately, but I would really think about if you want to put this in your show. For real. That's a real thing I'm telling you. So, will you think about it before putting it in your show?" Producer: "Absolutely." Corbell: "Okay. So UFOs are real, and they've been here a long time, and that's the truth. But the lie is coming. All indications, like ALL of them, is that that lie is going to be that there is a craft slowly making its way to us here on Earth. And that is the lie they're gonna want you to believe. "It's nuanced, how they explain that, the nature of that threat. But that 100 f**king percent is the lie you are going to be told. You even got a date. People been whispering a date for a long time now. I know where that lie comes from. I know, specifically, what document from the 70s initiated the idea of that lie. A classified document. That is the lie you will be told. You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That's the lie. "Maybe I'm wrong. Hope I'm wrong. I sent you two texts today with a year (Messages showing 2027 are shown on a cell phone). Not from me. Nope, I'm not gonna propagate that lie. I'm not gonna be part of it, I'm not going to say it to the camera. Everybody knows. Just start paying attention. And they'll change the date - especially if they see this - things will change. Because maybe I'm trustworthy, maybe I'm worthy of your trust, maybe I've told you the truth the whole way through it and now and you can verify it. If that's the case, then I'm f**king dangerous. "You've been told the truth about UFOs for a long time now. It's been pretty orchestrated, it's been pretty clear, and it's using people that are telling the truth and wanna tell the truth. Ultimately, they want you to know something. They want you to know UFOs are real. Thank God, we're finally there, we're all there now. They want you to know the truth. But why [do] they want you to know that truth now. I hope I'm wrong, but it's terrifying. Think about it "Maybe it's good to get ahead of it, call it out now, before they do it. I'll be called crazy. That's okay."

Joe Murgia

757,327 次观看 • 1 年前