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Whales are accumulating Bitcoin like never before. Truflation just printed below 2%. The Trump admin has every tool they need to begin stimulating the economy aggressively. PMI data drops Monday. Here are 4 top altcoins I'm positioned in... SUI - VC coin exposure, recently down 73% from December 2024...

45,260 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Altcoins are sitting at the most oversold levels we've pretty much seen in every cycle. I'm not saying that the bottom is in. I don't play that game anymore. I've done it and I've been wrong. However, every cycle so far, these same indicators have basically been the bottom. Here's the setup across ETH, ADA, SUI, and DOG 👇 $ETH - The November 2024 fractal is repeating so far. Higher highs, higher lows forming on the daily. Watching $2,800 (200D MA) as first resistance. If ETH can hold the 20/50 confluence and break the range, it could lead the altcoin move. $ADA - MACD squeezing on the daily. Same structure as the October/November 2024 breakout. Waiting for the histogram to close green above the zero line with real momentum. Fakeouts possible, but the setup is there. $SUI - Down 85% from the swing high. Monthly Stoch RSI is completely oversold after a year of down only. A quicker-moving oscillator falling that long doesn't happen often. $1.50 is the short-to-mid-term level if we get the pump. $DOG (on Bitcoin) - Down 91% from the high. Almost in the same drawdown camp as ADA and SUI. #1 meme coin on Bitcoin. Most engaged meme coin on X last week. If crypto reverses, this is positioned. The question isn't whether these indicators have been reliable. They have been. The question is simply whether we're prepared for every scenario. Breakouts or fakeouts. Intro 00:00 Altcoin bull or bear 00:45 The November 2024 ETH Fractal 2:00 Cardano's Breakout Signal 4:15 Sui's Monthly Reset 5:35 Dog starting line 7:30 Thanks for your patience! 10:15

Dan Gambardello

42,660 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.

Adam Livingston

111,924 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR IS ABOUT TO SELL BITCOIN 🚨 And it's much worse for the market than you think. Let me explain Saylor built the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine in corporate history The model was simple: 1. Raise capital 2. Buy BTC 3. Reinvest returns 4. Repeat Every dip was a buy. Every week a new purchase. 5 years straight BUT Then Q1 2026 happened BTC dropped from 87k to 68k in three months. Strategy posted a $12.54B loss But even that's not the real problem Here's the real problem To fund the machine, Saylor issued STRC - preferred stock paying investors 11.5% annual dividend $8.5 billion raised - all of it went into BTC The catch - dividends don't stop when Bitcoin drops Strategy now owes investors $1.2 billion every single year. Regardless of price So yesterday Saylor admitted it publicly The man who screamed "never sell your Bitcoin" on every podcast - may now sell Bitcoin In isolation, selling to cover dividends isn't catastrophic But the narrative just broke And once the narrative breaks, the damage is structural Here's how it plays out Every time BTC drops and stays low - Strategy sells more BTC to cover the $1.2B obligation Every sale pushes price down Lower price means more BTC needed to cover the same obligation Which means more and more selling Strategy holds 818,000 BTC - 3.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist At current prices, covering annual dividends alone requires selling roughly 15,500 BTC per year That's not a number the market quietly absorbs For 5 years Saylor was the floor under every dip Now he's potentially the ceiling June 8 - shareholder vote on dividends. Watch that date BTC doesn't like forced sellers. It never has NOTIFS ON!

NoName

57,733 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING MANIPULATED, AND I HAVE PROOF MICHAEL SAYLOR BEGINS SELLING $BTC Man who said "you do not sell your Bitcoin" is now selling Bitcoin Market reacts with immediate panic selling: $BTC < $62K Let that sink in Strategy holds 843,738 BTC - purchased for $63.87 billion at an average price of $75,700 per coin That's the largest corporate Bitcoin position in history And for years, Saylor repeated same thing over and over: Never sell. Never waver. Never flinch Then on an earnings call in May 2026, he said this: "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend - just to inoculate market" That single sentence broke a 5-year religion Here's what changed Strategy now carries $1.5B in annual preferred-stock dividend obligations Those dividends have to be paid in cash Bitcoin doesn't pay dividends So Saylor faces a choice: dilute shareholders with new equity, take on more debt or sell some BTC He chose door number three And there's more Company is sitting on $2.2 billion in unrealized tax benefits tied to high-cost-basis Bitcoin Selective sales could harvest those benefits - legally reducing their tax bill while offloading coins at the same time This isn't panic. This is optimization But here's what the market isn't pricing in Strategy owns approximately 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist If they become a consistent seller - even of small amounts - bid structure for BTC changes permanently Every fund, every ETF, every HODLer built their thesis on one assumption: Saylor is a buyer. Always That assumption just died The only time Strategy sold Bitcoin before this was December 2022 - 704 BTC for $11.8 million, purely for a tax loss This time the motivation is structural. Recurring. Tied to obligations that don't go away Watch the Coinbase Prime wallet Watch the 8-K filings The first real sale won't be announced - it'll be discovered I've been tracking institutional Bitcoin flows for years When the signal turns, I post it here first Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one

Simba

65,952 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨THIS ARB SETUP PRINTS ~$27,500 PER MONTH It's WRONG about BTC price every time and still gets paid. The secret? It buy YES, then buys NO same second. Sounds insane but it's the only risk-free trade in the whole space: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. The other ends at zero. Always, no middle ground. But the orderbook is messy and the two sides trade like they don't even know about each other. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of locked profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Up, down, sideways - you already hold the winning side, cause you hold every side. You're not predicting anything. You're just buying a dollar for less than a dollar. Now the honest part most of these posts skip: The gap is real but thin, and three things eat it. > fees + gas on both legs > you need BOTH sides filled before the gap closes > and it closes in seconds, sometimes faster Grab YES at 47, NO jumps to 54 before your second leg fills, and your locked 96 just became $1.01. Free money turned into a small loss in one tick. The math is risk-free but the execution is NOT. That's the whole reason bots own this and humans can't. You can stare at one market. My scanner watches every crypto market at once and fires both legs the instant the sum breaks under a dollar. Full guide quoted below for those who wanna deep dive into arb.

Oracle Boar

22,278 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I'll say what almost nobody in this space will say right now: I'm bullish. I literally don't care. At the highest fear we've seen, with every chart looking absolutely horrendous, I'm bullish on crypto. Oh well! Call me the bad guy for it. I'm fine being that guy. Almost no one is discussing these charts, and I will happily be the one to show them to you. Even if I'm wrong, I'm glad to be able to offer this data for consideration. Start with copper/gold. Overlay it on PMI going back to 2012 and the correlation is almost uncomfortable. Every PMI expansion, copper/gold turns up with it, and every one of those has lined up with a crypto bull market. Right now copper/gold just reclaimed its 20-month moving average. It's turning on the macro. Then the one that actually really matters. Take the altcoin market cap excluding the top 10. A small sliver of the entire market... Lay it over PMI and it tracks cleanly, bear, bull, bear, bull. PMI ticked up again two days ago, and that chart is expanding right now, in real time, in lockstep with it. Altcoins are literally printing on the chart alongside PMI while everyone calls the space dead. I'm not getting on the fear train while so many of these indicators are lining up the way they are. I've built my businesses in this space. I'll ride it to zero if that's how it goes. I just don't think it goes that way. Intro 00:00 Ethereum has been here 1:50 Cardano has been here 4:05 Copper / Gold 6:00 Watch this altcoin chart now 9:40 Liquidity rotation 12:20

Dan Gambardello

43,805 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten